Get started

NZD-USD

NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US CPI and the start of Q3 earnings season (both catalysts that can trigger decent reactions in risk sentiment) needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
by thunderpips
2
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US CPI and the start of Q3 earnings season (both catalysts that can trigger decent reactions in risk sentiment) needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
by thunderpips
4
NZD/USD Bearish Momentum Continues...Hello Traders Last week, USD got gains with NFP and unemployment results. Also, sentiment around the USD is still bullish so we believe USD is shining even more in the following week. USD Inflation result will be crucial for market movements. So here is why we are bearish on NZD/USD: 1- RSI and Stochastic are declining (4hr TF). 2- Price has broken a bear flag(correction zone) and will continue in bearish momentum. 3- Macro momentum is still bearish. 4- No local higher high indicates that bearish momentum will continue. Targets have been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Short
by FortunaInvestments
NZDUSD H1: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.5810On the H4 time frame, prices are approaching the resistance zone at 0.5810, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. This resistance zone is also a graphical support-turned-resistance zone that has been respected multiple times. A pullback to this resistance zone at 0.5810 presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support zone at 0.5680. This support zone is also the graphical swing low that coincides with Fibonacci confluence levels. Stochastic is approaching resistance as well, in line with prices.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar perked up on Wednesday after the RBNZ raised interest rates as expected and doubled down on its resolve to contain runaway inflation. Commenting on the meeting, Westpac noted: “The consideration of a 75 by move – given it could reduce the risk of a higher peak in the overall OCR cycle – suggests the RBNZ is now eyeing a considerably higher peak than the 4.1% from its August projections… We recently revised up our OCR forecast to a peak of 4.5% by next February.”
by thunderpips
1
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 3rd Oct 2022On the H4, with the price bouncing from the 1st support, we can expect the price to test the sell entry at 0.57272, where the swing highs and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are. If the sell entry is broken, the “double bottom” pattern will form, the take profit could be at 0.59029, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.55867, where the swing low is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
3
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 30th Sept 2022On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we maintain a bearish bias that the price may test the sell entry at 0.57707, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and then drop to the take profit at 0.55591, where the swing low and 127.2% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, the price may break the sell entry and rise to the stop loss at 0.58717, where the 38.2% and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
4
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 23rd September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel, below ichimoku cloud, If the price can break the sell entry at 0.57984, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection, 161.8% fibonacci extension, 127.2% fibonacci extensions successfully, we can expect the price drop to the take profit at 0.56546, which is in line with the 200% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may pull back to the stop loss at 0.58932, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 22nd September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel, below ichimoku cloud, RSI is showing a descending trendline. If the price can break the sell entry at 0.57984, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection, 161.8% fibonacci extension, 127.2% fibonacci extensions successfully, we can expect the price drop to the take profit at 0.56546, which is in line with the 200% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may pull back to the stop loss at 0.58967, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 15th September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 0.60361, which is in line with the pullback resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.59624, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.60771, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDUSD Close to the long-term Support. Buy opportunity.The NZDUSD pair had previously completed its bullish leg above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before starting the new correction on the August 12 High, as we illustrated on our previous analysis: Right now the price is again the closest its been since July 12 to the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1 year Bearish Megaphone pattern. This makes the odds of a buying stronger, even though the 1D RSI isn't yet oversold. Probably that will happen within the current level and 0.5900. In any case this is a good medium-term buy opportunity, initially targeting the 1D MA50 and Inner Lower Highs (1) trend-line on a potential +5% rise (minimum of rises inside the Megaphone) and in extension the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the Inner Lower Highs (2) trend-line on a +7.50% rise (maximum inside the Megaphone). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 14th September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 0.59960, which is in line with the swing low and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the take profit at 0.59062, where the 100% fibonacci projection is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.60071, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
Dollar reigns supremeNZDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6100 (stop at 0.6150) Previous support located at 0.6000. Previous resistance located at 0.6050. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Further downside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. Our profit targets will be 0.5975 and 0.5950 Resistance: 0.6050 / 0.6100 / 0.6150 Support: 0.6000 / 0.5975 / 0.5950 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
1