NZDUSD H1: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.5810On the H4 time frame, prices are approaching the resistance zone at 0.5810, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. This resistance zone is also a graphical support-turned-resistance zone that has been respected multiple times. A pullback to this resistance zone at 0.5810 presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support zone at 0.5680. This support zone is also the graphical swing low that coincides with Fibonacci confluence levels. Stochastic is approaching resistance as well, in line with prices.
NZD-USD
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar perked up on Wednesday after the RBNZ raised interest rates as expected and doubled down on its resolve to contain runaway inflation.
Commenting on the meeting, Westpac noted: “The consideration of a 75 by move – given it could reduce the risk of a higher peak in the overall OCR cycle – suggests the RBNZ is now eyeing a considerably higher peak than the 4.1% from its August projections… We recently revised up our OCR forecast to a peak of 4.5% by next February.”
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 3rd Oct 2022On the H4, with the price bouncing from the 1st support, we can expect the price to test the sell entry at 0.57272, where the swing highs and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are. If the sell entry is broken, the “double bottom” pattern will form, the take profit could be at 0.59029, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.55867, where the swing low is.
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NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 30th Sept 2022On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we maintain a bearish bias that the price may test the sell entry at 0.57707, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and then drop to the take profit at 0.55591, where the swing low and 127.2% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, the price may break the sell entry and rise to the stop loss at 0.58717, where the 38.2% and 50% fibonacci retracement are.
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GBPNZD: Bullish Dragon Visible on the MonthlyOne of the Main Reasons GBP has been going down so much against the NZD is because the NZD has been doing much better against the USD than the GBP has, but now it looks like the NZD's momentum against the USD is fading; and that the USD's Strength against the GBP is also showing cracks. Therefore I believe the GBP will outperform the NZD on many fronts within the future Months to Years.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 23rd September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel, below ichimoku cloud, If the price can break the sell entry at 0.57984, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection, 161.8% fibonacci extension, 127.2% fibonacci extensions successfully, we can expect the price drop to the take profit at 0.56546, which is in line with the 200% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may pull back to the stop loss at 0.58932, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 22nd September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel, below ichimoku cloud, RSI is showing a descending trendline. If the price can break the sell entry at 0.57984, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection, 161.8% fibonacci extension, 127.2% fibonacci extensions successfully, we can expect the price drop to the take profit at 0.56546, which is in line with the 200% fibonacci extension and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may pull back to the stop loss at 0.58967, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 15th September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 0.60361, which is in line with the pullback resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.59624, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.60771, which is in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Close to the long-term Support. Buy opportunity.The NZDUSD pair had previously completed its bullish leg above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before starting the new correction on the August 12 High, as we illustrated on our previous analysis:
Right now the price is again the closest its been since July 12 to the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1 year Bearish Megaphone pattern. This makes the odds of a buying stronger, even though the 1D RSI isn't yet oversold. Probably that will happen within the current level and 0.5900. In any case this is a good medium-term buy opportunity, initially targeting the 1D MA50 and Inner Lower Highs (1) trend-line on a potential +5% rise (minimum of rises inside the Megaphone) and in extension the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the Inner Lower Highs (2) trend-line on a +7.50% rise (maximum inside the Megaphone).
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NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 14th September 2022On the H4, with the price moving within the descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 0.59960, which is in line with the swing low and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the take profit at 0.59062, where the 100% fibonacci projection is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.60071, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low support.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Dollar reigns supremeNZDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6100 (stop at 0.6150)
Previous support located at 0.6000. Previous resistance located at 0.6050. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Further downside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 0.5975 and 0.5950
Resistance: 0.6050 / 0.6100 / 0.6150
Support: 0.6000 / 0.5975 / 0.5950
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NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation| 7th September 2022
On the H4, with price moving within the descending channel, below ichimoku indicators and MACD showing a death cross, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 0.59967, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection. If the price can break the sell entry, the take profit could be at 0.59497, where the 127.2% fibonacci extension is. Alternatively, the price may pull back from the 1sell entry and rise to the stop loss at 0.60569, where the previous swing lows are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZD/USD Outlook (7 September 2022) The NZDUSD heads into unchartered territory!
As the price breaks below the 0.6060 support level, the NZDUSD is heading into price levels last seen in 2020, during the pandemic.
With the price currently at 0.6040, look for the NZDUSD to trade lower towards the round number level of 0.60. However, the key support level is at 0.5930.
While there could be a significant downside, the price action as the NZDUSD trades lower could see significant volatility and choppy movements.