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NZD-USD

NZDUSD moving higher - UPDATE 🦐After yesterday's idea the price moved in the expected direction and broke above the weekly structure. We will wait for a retest of the support and wait for an inversion to check the opportunity for a nice long order. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
NZD/USD Outlook (25 July 2022) The NZDUSD tested the 0.63 resistance level before trading lower again. Although the NZ dollar remains under pressure with high inflation and recent interest rate hikes failing to have an impact, the NZD has climbed to the upside due to DXY weakness. Look for the NZDUSD to bounce off the 0.62 support area to test the resistance of 0.63. A strong rejection of the resistance area could signal the resumption of the downtrend, especially if the Federal Reserve conveys a hawkish sentiment at the upcoming meeting. Next support level beyond 0.62 is 0.6080.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Possible short term top on NZDUSDTrade Idea: Selling NZDUSD Reasoning: Possible Head and Shoulders forming on NZDUSD. A break lower would also see the short term channel invalidate. Entry Level: 0.6610 Take Profit Level: 0.6121 Stop Loss: 0.6242 Risk/Reward: 3.18:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
NZDUSD on a retracement move 🦐NZDUSD on the 4h chart is trading at the recent lows. The price is moving inside a descending channel and recently broke the upper trendline for a test of the 0.382 level. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a potential break of the resistance structure and in that case, i will set a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
NZD/USD Outlook (12 July 2022) More upside for the NZD? Upside on the NZDUSD had been capped by the 0.62 resistance level, which led to price trading lower towards 0.61 (also due to the strength of the DXY). However, price struggled to break below the 0.61 support level and has rebounded back to 0.6140. With the RBNZ rate decision due, and a 50bps increase expected, a spike up in the NZDUSD could be likely, with immediate target of 0.62 resistance keeping strong. Significant upside beyond 0.62 might not be sustainable as the 50bps hike to come from the RBNZ is the 3rd in a row, which had not shown an impact on slowing inflation.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
NZDUSD breaks down, looking to sell rallies.NZDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6150 (stop at 0.6200) Previous support located at 0.6100. Previous resistance located at 0.6150. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 0.6150, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 0.6075 will confirm the bearish momentum. Our profit targets will be 0.6010 and 0.6000 Resistance: 0.6150 / 0.6200 / 0.6225 Support: 0.6100 / 0.6075 / 0.6000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
NZDUSD Time to turn bullish again.The NZDUSD pair hit our target of the last analysis we published following the +5.20% pattern: That High was in fact formed and rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken since April 14. Technically, the price still trades within the long-term Bearish Megaphone pattern, so highs are best viewed as sell opportunities. Naturally however, a medium-term relief rally is most likely ahead of us as the 1D MA50 is as close to the price as the previous Lower Lows of August 20 2021 and January 28 2022. As long as the Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) of the Megaphone holds, buy and aim again for a +50.20% rise (0.64400) with an extension of +7.65% (0.65800). The latter can make a perfect contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is intact since April 07. On the other hand, if the price closes below the Megaphone, take the loss on the buy (small SL, low risk/ high return) and open a sell targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension a little over 0.5800. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
NZD/USD Outlook (6 July 2022) The NZDUSD broke below key support level of 0.6200 on the back of the stronger DXY overnight. The last time price broke below this level was in March 2020. The NZD is likely to remain under pressure as recent data indicated a weaker than forecasted economy and the RBNZ's plan for further rate hikes is considered to be conservative compared to the Federal Reserve. Further downside can be anticipated, expected significant volatility, as price trades towards the next support level of 0.6100.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
NZD/USD Outlook (28 June 2022) The NZD and AUD relationship continues as the NZDUSD prints a similiar bearish pennant pattern to the AUDUSD. The NZD found a strong base at the 0.6200 support level, climbing towards horizontal resistance level of 0.6380, since the 15th of June. With a series of weaker than expected economic data releases, the upward climb in the NZDUSD might be losing steam as price consolidates around the 0.63 price level. Look for price to break the lower diagonal support level for a move lower, towards 0.62 and even towards 0.61 (if the 0.62 level is broken)
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Is the NZDUSD bearish or bullish? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), showing concern about inflation, made another 50bsp hike during May taking its Official Cash Rate to 2.0%. The hawkish tone and actions of the RBNZ paired with fears the US economy could tip into a recession by the end of the year have helped the NZD regain some composure over the past couple of weeks. The NZDUSD made a significant bounce at around 0.62000 after its descent during the first few weeks of the month. Now, the NZD is showing some sign of weakness as it again attempts to breach the 0.63100 resistance level. During last week, we saw mixed data for the Kiwi dollar. The Business NZ Services Index showed a significant increase of 55.2 versus the previous data of 52.2, which indicates a stronger expansion in the services area. But on the other hand, Westpac Consumer Sentiment recorded the lowest reading ever of 78.7 since the survey began in 1988 which shows pessimism towards economic growth and low consumer confidence. On the daily chart, the Williams Alligator Indicator is showing a strong downtrend signal as the price stays below the green 5-period moving average (alligator’s lips). While the other moving averages, the red 8-period moving average (alligator’s teeth) and the blue 13-period moving average (alligator’s jaw) are separated by a large distance between each other giving us a strong bearish trend signal. However, a staunch support level might appear at the 0.62100 area. Given the fundamental analysis and a strong downtrend signal from the alligator indicator, a possible break out to the downside below the strong support zone may push the pair to the 0.60000 psychological price area.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE What a head scratcher! The outlook for the NZD has been supportive for the currency on so many fronts. The RBNZ was the first major central bank to really ramp up aggressive policy expectations by setting out a clear hawkish path for higher interest rates and have recently hiked in 50bsp increments and also upgraded their terminal rate projections. Furthermore, the economy has been performing well and the growth outlook remains on a solid footing with no major hiccups expected compared to growth outlook in other major economies like the US, UK and the EU. The country also managed to sign an amended trade agreement with their biggest trade partner China, who has promised to open up more markets for NZ goods. However, despite all the positives in play, the NZD has been mostly rangebound for the past 19 months. There have been very big swings higher and big swings lower, but the currency (at the index level) has not been able to catch any sustainable bullish momentum despite it’s positive outlook. That does make us cautious with the currency, despite many things pointing to upside. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Both CFTC and tactical positioning looks very stretched at the moment. With positioning at these stretched levels, some position squaring and mean reversion could trigger some upside in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD remains positive for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia. However, we don’t want to ignore the clear rangebound price action exhibited by the currency over the past 19 months. For now, given the positive outlook and stretched short positioning, we would favour short-term upside catalysts over trying to chase the currency lower in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
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