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NZD-USD

NZDUSD breaks down, looking to sell rallies.NZDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6150 (stop at 0.6200) Previous support located at 0.6100. Previous resistance located at 0.6150. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 0.6150, resulting in improved risk/reward. A move through 0.6075 will confirm the bearish momentum. Our profit targets will be 0.6010 and 0.6000 Resistance: 0.6150 / 0.6200 / 0.6225 Support: 0.6100 / 0.6075 / 0.6000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
NZDUSD Time to turn bullish again.The NZDUSD pair hit our target of the last analysis we published following the +5.20% pattern: That High was in fact formed and rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken since April 14. Technically, the price still trades within the long-term Bearish Megaphone pattern, so highs are best viewed as sell opportunities. Naturally however, a medium-term relief rally is most likely ahead of us as the 1D MA50 is as close to the price as the previous Lower Lows of August 20 2021 and January 28 2022. As long as the Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) of the Megaphone holds, buy and aim again for a +50.20% rise (0.64400) with an extension of +7.65% (0.65800). The latter can make a perfect contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is intact since April 07. On the other hand, if the price closes below the Megaphone, take the loss on the buy (small SL, low risk/ high return) and open a sell targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension a little over 0.5800. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
NZD/USD Outlook (6 July 2022) The NZDUSD broke below key support level of 0.6200 on the back of the stronger DXY overnight. The last time price broke below this level was in March 2020. The NZD is likely to remain under pressure as recent data indicated a weaker than forecasted economy and the RBNZ's plan for further rate hikes is considered to be conservative compared to the Federal Reserve. Further downside can be anticipated, expected significant volatility, as price trades towards the next support level of 0.6100.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
NZD/USD Outlook (28 June 2022) The NZD and AUD relationship continues as the NZDUSD prints a similiar bearish pennant pattern to the AUDUSD. The NZD found a strong base at the 0.6200 support level, climbing towards horizontal resistance level of 0.6380, since the 15th of June. With a series of weaker than expected economic data releases, the upward climb in the NZDUSD might be losing steam as price consolidates around the 0.63 price level. Look for price to break the lower diagonal support level for a move lower, towards 0.62 and even towards 0.61 (if the 0.62 level is broken)
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Is the NZDUSD bearish or bullish? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), showing concern about inflation, made another 50bsp hike during May taking its Official Cash Rate to 2.0%. The hawkish tone and actions of the RBNZ paired with fears the US economy could tip into a recession by the end of the year have helped the NZD regain some composure over the past couple of weeks. The NZDUSD made a significant bounce at around 0.62000 after its descent during the first few weeks of the month. Now, the NZD is showing some sign of weakness as it again attempts to breach the 0.63100 resistance level. During last week, we saw mixed data for the Kiwi dollar. The Business NZ Services Index showed a significant increase of 55.2 versus the previous data of 52.2, which indicates a stronger expansion in the services area. But on the other hand, Westpac Consumer Sentiment recorded the lowest reading ever of 78.7 since the survey began in 1988 which shows pessimism towards economic growth and low consumer confidence. On the daily chart, the Williams Alligator Indicator is showing a strong downtrend signal as the price stays below the green 5-period moving average (alligator’s lips). While the other moving averages, the red 8-period moving average (alligator’s teeth) and the blue 13-period moving average (alligator’s jaw) are separated by a large distance between each other giving us a strong bearish trend signal. However, a staunch support level might appear at the 0.62100 area. Given the fundamental analysis and a strong downtrend signal from the alligator indicator, a possible break out to the downside below the strong support zone may push the pair to the 0.60000 psychological price area.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE What a head scratcher! The outlook for the NZD has been supportive for the currency on so many fronts. The RBNZ was the first major central bank to really ramp up aggressive policy expectations by setting out a clear hawkish path for higher interest rates and have recently hiked in 50bsp increments and also upgraded their terminal rate projections. Furthermore, the economy has been performing well and the growth outlook remains on a solid footing with no major hiccups expected compared to growth outlook in other major economies like the US, UK and the EU. The country also managed to sign an amended trade agreement with their biggest trade partner China, who has promised to open up more markets for NZ goods. However, despite all the positives in play, the NZD has been mostly rangebound for the past 19 months. There have been very big swings higher and big swings lower, but the currency (at the index level) has not been able to catch any sustainable bullish momentum despite it’s positive outlook. That does make us cautious with the currency, despite many things pointing to upside. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Both CFTC and tactical positioning looks very stretched at the moment. With positioning at these stretched levels, some position squaring and mean reversion could trigger some upside in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish RBNZ expectations (faster deceleration in growth or inflation) could trigger downside for the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD remains positive for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia. However, we don’t want to ignore the clear rangebound price action exhibited by the currency over the past 19 months. For now, given the positive outlook and stretched short positioning, we would favour short-term upside catalysts over trying to chase the currency lower in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. STIR markets suggests aggressive policy action pricing a terminal rate of >3.8% by 2Q23 which should be a positive input for the US Dollar . Safe haven flows have also supported the USD as it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown, accompanied by multi-decade high inflation and synchronized removal of monetary policy stimulus from major economies has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety as economic prospects have deteriorated. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has benefited from the rush to safety. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (especially inflation ) that sparks further hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices and inflation expectations could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES More recently the USD has reacted more cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data slows, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD despite its safe haven appeal. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is still close prior highs which acted aslocal tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Thus, any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed as a result of higher risks of recession. Furthermore, given tactical and CFTC positioning, we would prefer deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs, but shortterm catalyst can still offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
by thunderpips
1
NZDUSD 4h analysis 🦐NZDUSD on the 4h chart reached as expected the monthly support at the 0.62500 level. The market is now looking for a retracement and can move to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. How can i approach this scenario? The main trend remain bearish so I will wait for the end of the retracement and look for the best inversion point to set a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.6465). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDUSD is in a downtrend, and the continuation of the downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 33. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6415 TP2= @ 0.6365 TP3= @ 0.6291 TP4= @ 0.6216 TP5= @ 0.6112 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
10
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.6465). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDUSD is in a downtrend, and the continuation of the downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 33. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6415 TP2= @ 0.6365 TP3= @ 0.6291 TP4= @ 0.6216 TP5= @ 0.6112 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
4
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.6514). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 49. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6423 TP2= @ 0.6374 TP3= @ 0.6291 TP4= @ 0.6215 TP5= @ 0.6100 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
2
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (0.6514). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 48. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6423 TP2= @ 0.6374 TP3= @ 0.6291 TP4= @ 0.6215 TP5= @ 0.6100 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
2
NZDUSD Potential for bearish drop | 14th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the sell entry at 0.62923 in line with the pullback resistance to the take profit at 0.61210 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 0.63697 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDUSD, H4 Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the sell entry at 0.62862 in line with the pullback resistance to the take profit at 0.61164 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 0.63717 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD on a double top 🦐NZDUSD on the 4h chart after our previous analysis reached as expected the monthly resistance. The market created a double top over the structure with 2 equal highs and is now trading above the 0.64500 support. How can i approach this scenario? We will wait for a potential break of the support area and in that case i will look for a nice short order according to the Plancton's academy rules. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting the RBNZ surprise economists but not STIR markets by delivering a 50bsp hike, taking the OCR to 1.50%. The bank stressed, like most others, that inflation is a concern and that they will ensure that higher price pressures don’t become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. The NZD initially pushed higher after the 50bsp hike (surprising economists) but it faded initial strength to trade much lower (as a 50bsp was almost fully priced by STIR markets). The statement reflected the hawkish tone we’ve grown accustomed to see from the bank over the past few months with the Committee saying they agreed that their policy ‘path of least regrets’ was to increase the OCR by 50bsp now rather than later, and of course stated that more hikes are needed (in line with their OCR projections). The one less hawkish element for the decision was that the bank didn’t increase their neutral rate expectations and instead said they are comfortable with their February MPS OCR outlook. The markets wanted to see a clear promise of more 50bsp hikes or alternatively wanted to see an increase of the neutral rate expectations, and without either of those the 50bsp hike was simply seen as front-loading. As a result of this, money markets were pricing in just a 25bsp for May for the majority of Wednesday. But after calls from Westpac, ASB and Kiwibank for a 50bsp in May we saw the NZD regain some composure on Thursday as STIR markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50bsp hike. The RBNZ remain hawkish, but a lot of that is arguably priced in and might not continue to offer much more support for the NZD. 2. Economic outlook The econ outlook looks solid as growth & inflation is expected to accelerate, home prices up 30%, commodity prices supported, and a ratified trade deal with China (opening more Chinese markets for NZ goods). Given its trade with China and Australia the recent Covid situation in China is a short-term negative for the NZD. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD. 4. CFTC Analysis An overall mixed positioning signal for the past week. The NZD has been trading poorly in recent weeks due to the recent risk sentiment turmoil, and also means if risk can make a bit of a comeback, it could provide some short-term relief for the NZD which is looking a bit stretched. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In May the Fed delivered on hawkish expectations by hiking the Fed Funds Rate by 50bsp and also confirmed that the committee expects further 50bsp hikes to be appropriate. The fed also stuck to a familiar hawkish tone by downplaying the prospects of an imminent recession by explaining that even though the economy contracted in Q1, that household spending and business investment remained strong. The Chair also stuck to their guns regarding the rate path by suggesting that they think reaching neutral (currently estimated at 2.4%) before year-end would be appropriate and will assess the need for further hikes when they get there. There were however some less hawkish elements which saw a very classic ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction in major asset classes. The first one was on the Quantitative Tightening front where the bank decided on a phased approach for balance sheet reduction by starting the monthly caps at 30bn (treasuries) and 17.5bn ( MBS ) and pushing it up to the expected $60bn (treasuries) and $35bn ( MBS ) over a three-month timeframe. The second less hawkish element was comments from Chair Powell who took 75bsp hikes off the table saying the committee was not actively considering rate moves of that size. Interestingly, it seems STIR markets did not really believe the Fed as the probability of a 75bsp hike stood at >70% directly following the presser. All-in-all, the meeting provided a short-term ‘sell-the-fact’ opportunity, but also cemented the view that despite signs of a slowing economy and despite clear stress in financial markets, the Fed is sticking to their aggressive tightening for now. 2. Global & Domestic Economy The USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown have been USD positive. However, we think a lot of the growth concerns might be reflected in recent USD appreciation already. Furthermore, the USD has not been responding positively to bad data like we’ve seen from the start of the year. More recently we’ve seen the USD depreciate on bad data which could suggest that the USD’s driver has temporarily shifted away from the growth focus and shifted towards a Fed focus as the worse the incoming data becomes the higher the likelihood of a less aggressive Fed in the months ahead. Incoming data will be watched closely in relation to the infamous ‘Fed Put’. If growth data slows but not enough to stop the Fed’s hawkish path it’s USD positive, but if the data cause a Fed pivot that’ll be a big negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis An overall bearish positioning change across major participant categories last week. Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That means we don’t want to chase the USD higher from here in the short-term.
by thunderpips
1