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NZD-USD

Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar slipped on Thursday after data showed inflation was not quite as hot as feared in the first quarter, leading investors to slightly widen the odds on another half point interest rate hike by the RBNZ. EUR – The euro rose to a more than one-week high on Thursday after a spate of hawkish comments from ECB officials raised bets that interest rates will rise soon. Indeed, Reuters notes that “money markets, which had eased rate hike bets following last Thursday’s ECB meeting, were now pricing in a 20 basis point (bps) rise by July and over 70 bps of tightening by year-end.”
by thunderpips
NZDUSD test the 0.618 🦐NZDUSD on the 4h chart after our previous analysis reached the support area at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The price from there bounces over the support and is now trading below a minor resistance near to the 0.5 Fibonacci area. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and if the market will break above the structure i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
NZD/USD (Bat Pattern) 1HRPAIR: NZDUSD TRADE: BAT PATTERN POSITION: SELL TIME-FRAME: 1HR -------------------- A couple of nice wins during the trading day. Grateful for another day, filled with opportunity to get involved. Another intraday / day trade opportunity on the NZDUSD pair, 1HR time frame, in the form of a Bat Pattern. -------------------- Truly grateful to be here and share my thoughts with everyone. Always appreciate your thoughts and what you have to say and share, let's experience Trading in a positive way, together. Time is precious, be kind to everyone and be safe in the markets, always. "See yourself as love and only have that, to give away." -------------------- Phil C.
Short
by Phil_C
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their April meeting the RBNZ surprise economists but not STIR markets by delivering a 50bsp hike, taking the OCR to 1.50%. The bank stressed, like most others, that inflation is a concern and that they will ensure that higher price pressures don’t become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. The NZD initially pushed higher after the 50bsp hike (surprising economists) but it faded initial strength to trade much lower (as a 50bsp was almost fully priced by STIR markets). The statement reflected the hawkish tone we’ve grown accustomed to see from the bank over the past few months with the Committee saying they agreed that their policy ‘path of least regrets’ was to increase the OCR by 50bsp now rather than later, and of course stated that more hikes are needed (in line with their OCR projections). The one less hawkish element for the decision was that the bank didn’t increase their neutral rate expectations and instead said they are comfortable with their February MPS OCR outlook. The markets wanted to see a clear promise of more 50bsp hikes or alternatively wanted to see an increase of the neutral rate expectations, and without either of those the 50bsp hike was simply seen as front-loading. As a result of this, money markets were pricing in just a 25bsp for May for the majority of Wednesday. But after calls from Westpac, ASB and Kiwibank for a 50bsp in May we saw the NZD regain some composure on Thursday as STIR markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50bsp hike. The RBNZ remain hawkish, but a lot of that is arguably priced in and might not continue to offer much more support for the NZD. Economic outlook The econ outlook looks solid as growth & inflation is expected to accelerate, home prices up 30%, commodity prices supported, and a ratified trade deal with China (opening more Chinese markets for NZ goods). Given it’s trade with China and Australia the recent Covid situation in China is a short-term negative for the NZD. 2. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD. 3. CFTC Analysis Most recent positioning data suggest some bearish sentiment for the NZD, but positioning remains close to neutral across participant categories. With a lot of one-side upside in recent weeks we do need to take extra caution for pullbacks, especially with the current Covid situation getting worse in China. 4. The Week Ahead For the week ahead the Q1 CPI print and Covid headlines in China will be the main highlights for the NZD. On the inflation side, markets are looking for yet another solid print for the Q1 CPI with headline YY seen printing above 7% (which will be the highest since the early 90’s). The big question is whether the event will matter much for the RNBZ, and thus for the NZD. As always, a much higher or lower than expected print for CPI can spark some short-term volatility, but it won’t really be enough to change the market’s expectations for the OCR. Despite the RBNZ not really providing any clear signals of another 50bsp hike, STIR markets are pricing the odds of another 50bsp above 60%. Thus, a solid beat might see markets pricing in a 50bsp hike with a bit more certainty, while a miss might see them only pricing in a 25bsp. The point is that it won’t change much for the bigger picture for the RBNZ, which means the impact of the event might be more short-lived for the NZD. It also means that the short-term concerns regarding China might be the bigger driver for the NZD as well as the AUD in the week ahead, where any increasingly negative developments ‘should’ add pressure on the NZD while any positive developments ‘should be supportive. The upcoming PBoC meeting will also be closely watched as bigger-than-expected stimulus could ease some of the Covid concerns. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The week will be thin in terms of US economic data, with the Philly Fed Business Index and S&P Global Flash PMIs the main highlights. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another fasterthan-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that growth data surprise higher though, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. What that means is that we need to be mindful of the possibility that current USD bulls take some profit as we push into major and key 2020 resistance levels (2-year highs and new cycle highs). As a growth hedge, the current environment of slowing growth and a hawkish Fed bodes well for the USD, which means the med-term bullish bias remains intact, but the risk to reward of chasing it at the highs is not very attractive right now, and means patience is not a bad idea right now.
by thunderpips
NZDUSD Potential Bullish Bounce | 18th April 2022Price is near to pivot level. We are expecting price to have a bullish bounce from buy entry level of 0.67279 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection, 138.2% Fibonacci extension and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, price might continue to dip down to stop loss level of 0.66658 lines up with previous horizontal swing low support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDUSD on an ascending channel 🦐NZDUSD on the 4h chart is trading at the top of a bullish trend inside an ascending channel. The price after the recent impulse got rejected by the daily resistance and is now moving to the lower trendline. I expect the price to reach the confluence zone between the weekly support and the trendline before the end of this week and i will monitor the price action around that level. How can i approach this scenario? If the price will carry on the retracement move I will wait for the break of the confluence zone and after that, i will check for a short opportunity and set a sell order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
NZDUSD Strong sell signalThe NZDUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the start of 2021. Our last call on this pair was a buy signal and our 0.7000 target has been hit: The price broke below the Lower Lows trend-line, creating a small divergence and we have to re-adjust our projected Fibs. As you see, every Lower High has been near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which was also the case for the last Lower High of April 05. The recent Lower Low however broke the -0.236 Fib extension sequence as the price marginally broke below the Channel Down. Regardless of that, the price is still a solid sell signal at the beginning of a new selling sequence. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) broke today, giving the final confirmation for a bearish break-out. Our target is the 0.6530 Low. Traders seeking more risk on the long-term may even target the previous -0.236 Fib extension sequence at 0.63670. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
NZDUSD Potential Bullish Bounce |12th April 2022We expect to see a potential for a bullish bounce from our buy entry of 0.68107 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level at 0.69012 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is at support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
NZDUSD Potential Bullish Bounce |12th April 2022We expect to see a potential for a bullish bounce from our buy entry of 0.68107 in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level at 0.69012 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is at support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDUSD potential for bounce! | 11th April 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding by an ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 0.68645 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement . RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
NZD/USD Outlook (11 April 2022) NZD/USD sold down from the 0.6950 towards 0.6840, as a result of recent FOMC meeting minutes release. On Wenesday 13th April, the RBNZ will be releasing cash rate decision and statement. With market anticipation for a rate hike of 25 basis point. This is likely to spike the NZD/USD up, however, pay attention to the statement, for indication of future rates decision. Prior to the RBNZ rate decision, the US CPI data is to be released on Tuesday 12th April. With Inflation for the US at close to 8%, likely to see a greater CPI data which could lead to further USD strength. Look for short term selling opportunities below 0.6840 towards next support level of 0.6710
Short
by JinDao_Tai
NZDUSD potential for bounce! | 11th April 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding by an ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 0.68645 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDUSD Potential Bounce| 6th Apr 2022On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the ichimoku cloud , we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.6981 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 0.69249 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection , 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.69027 in line with the swing low support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
NZDUSD Potential Bounce| 6th Apr 2022 On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.6981 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 0.69249 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 0.69027 in line with the swing low support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZD/USD: FUNDAMENTAL INFO + TECHNICAL FORECAST | SHORT 🔔NZD/USD Price Analysis: Crucial resistance of 0.7000, downside looks likely Confluence of psychological resistance of 0.7000 indicates the strength of bears. Kiwi bulls have surrendered their establishment above 61.8% Fibo retracement. The momentum oscillator RSI (14) seems losing its momentum after dropping below 60.00. The NZD/USD pair has displayed multiple failed attempts while practicing an establishment above 0.7000. The pair have witnessed an extreme responsive selling from the market participants on Tuesday, which has dragged the kiwi bulls below 0.6950. In the early Asian session, the asset is performing subdued and is expected to extend losses after slipping below Wednesday’s low at 0.6933. On a daily scale, NZD/USD has formed a ‘Gravestone Doji’ candlestick pattern, which signals a failed attempt by the bulls on driving the asset to fresh highs. The pair has failed to breach its old recurring barricade of 0.7000, which has also been encountered consecutively in the last two weeks. Apart from that, the kiwi bulls have lost their establishment above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from 21 October 2021 high at 0.7219 to 28 January low at 0.6529) at 0.6956. However, the trendline placed from the 28 January low at 0.6529 will continue to act as major support going forward.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
NZDUSD Potential Bounce| 5th Apr 2022 With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our take profit at 0.70618 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from our entry of 0.69879 in line with the pullback support. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for our stop loss at 0.68930 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection and pullback support. Do wait for a proper break of the resistance before considering the entry. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
NZDUSD Potential Bounce|4th Apr 2022On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the ichimoku cloud , we have a bias that price will rise to our take profit at 0.69880 in line with the swing high resistance from our take profit at 0.68770 in line with the horizontal overlap support, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for our stop loss at 0.68293 in line with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM