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NZD-USD

NZDUSD potential for reversal | 10th DecPrice is near buy entry price of 0.68717 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 0.68593 which is also 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by RSI as it is abiding by the ascending trendline . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
2
NZDUSD is on bearish momentum! | 9th Dec 2021Prices are on bearish momentum. We see potential for a dip from our sell entry 0.68172 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 0.67091 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Alternatively, our stop loss will be placed at 0.68647 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
Possible trend shift in NZDUSD – going short| 8th DecSignal ID: 78581 Time Issued: Wednesday, 08 December 2021 02:00:15 GMT Status: open Entry: 0.67641 - 0.67889 Limit: N/A Stop Loss: 0.68263 The Tidal Shift Strategy has just sold NZDUSD at 0.67765. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.67641 and 0.67889. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours at 2.47991, which suggests that the NZDUSD could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.001, so the stop loss has been set at 0.68262. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
Possible trend shift in NZDUSD – going short| 8th Dec Signal ID: 78581 Time Issued: Wednesday, 08 December 2021 02:00:15 GMT Status: open Entry: 0.67641 - 0.67889 Limit: N/A Stop Loss: 0.68263 The Tidal Shift Strategy has just sold NZDUSD at 0.67765. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 0.67641 and 0.67889. The signal was issued because our Speculative Sentiment Index has hit its most extreme positive level for the past 145 trading hours at 2.47991, which suggests that the NZDUSD could be trending downwards.The 14-period Average True Range on a daily chart is 0.001, so the stop loss has been set at 0.68262. This stop loss order is a trailing stop that will move down as the market moves down. There is no profit target for this strategy. We expect to be closed by the stop loss.Tidal Shift is a trend trading strategy that aims to catch shifts in trend using trader sentiment as an indicator. The strategy looks to buy when the Speculative Sentiment Index reaches its lowest value for the past 145 trading hours, and looks to short when it reaches its highest value for the past 145 trading hours. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3309 with a net non-commercial position of +10630. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest net-long for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have increased their net-long despite the recent underperformance from the NZD. 5. The Week Ahead With the RBNZ out of the way until February, the main focus for the NZD in the med-term will be key quarterly economic data points going into the Fed meeting (none of them are expected this week), and of course overall risk sentiment will be in focus in the short-term. The recent Omicron and Fed-inspired risk off has hit the NZD really hard. Given the economic and policy outlook we still see scope to upside in the NZD, but timing will be very important given the amount of uncertainty sparked by Omicron and the Fed. Barring any major Omicron updates it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on cross-asset implied volatility for signals of when some calm might be restored. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed announced tapering as expected, with purchases to be reduced at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and a faster 2022 taper on the table, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now as an aggressive Fed is not a positive for US10Y . But it also means there are risks that inflation expectations fall and place upside pressure on real yields. 3. Global Risk Outlook Based on the recent global economic data the expectations of a possible reflationary setup have developed as the Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to push higher. Even though this was seen as a possible negative for the USD, the recent hawkish tilt from the Fed (accompanied by the Omicron variant) has seen drastic curve flattening in anticipation that the Fed might be on its way to a policy mistake, and we could see a possible repeat scenario like we had back in 4Q18. If that happens, it should be an additional tailwind for the USD, which means for now a lot of hinges on the new variant. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +104 with a net non-commercial position of +35879. USD longs are looking stretched, and arguably have been looking stretched for the past few weeks. With large speculators at their highest level since 2019, there is some scope for some mean reversion lower in the USD. It’s also important to remember that a lot of the Fed hawkishness should now be reflected in the price. The biggest risk to upside is if the med-term growth and inflation outlook materially deteriorate from here. 5. The Week Ahead With Fed Chair Powell already giving the markets the prewarning of a faster tapering decision next week, there isn’t much that will change that with this week’s line up of economic data. The biggest even will no doubt be the CPI print on Friday, where markets are expecting a new cycle high for consumer prices. With so many expectations baked in for the Fed and with so many higher inflation projections doing the rounds, the highest tradable event for the USD this week would be a huge surprise miss as that will catch everyone by surprise and offer some decent downside in the short-term for the USD. Even though a beat in the CPI data should see further expectations of tighter policy, markets are so close to pricing in 3 hikes for next year again which means the upside on a beat might be more limited compared to the Nov CPI print.
by thunderpips
3
NZDUSD can move lower ? 🦐NZDUSD on the daily chart reached as expected the support area. The price is now testing a dynamic support and according to Plancton's strategy IF the price will break below and satisfy the ACADEMY conditions we will set a nice short order. ––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
6
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Price is reacting below our pivot level at 0.68193 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Price can potentially take support at 0.65001, which is in line with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our resistance at 0.70754, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Pivot: 0.68193 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Support: 0.65001 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.70754 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front). USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, going into their lockdown on Friday and with the new covid concerns in the mix it’ll be important to find out whether the Fed has changed their minds about anything. Fed Powell’s testimony will be important in this regard. 5. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -540 with a net non-commercial position of +34908. Positioning isn’t at stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large speculator positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time, which means the USD could still be vulnerable in the event of further repricing on the Fed side. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks.
by thunderpips
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Price is reacting below our pivot level at 0.6821 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Price can potentially take support at 0.65001, which is in line with 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our resistance at 0.70754, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Pivot: 0.68210 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Support: 0.65001 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.70754 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front). USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. 4. Economic Data Fed speak will be in focus in the week ahead, going into their lockdown on Friday and with the new covid concerns in the mix it’ll be important to find out whether the Fed has changed their minds about anything. Fed Powell’s testimony will be important in this regard. 5. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -540 with a net non-commercial position of +34908. Positioning isn’t at stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large speculator positioning has been sizeable in a short space of time, which means the USD could still be vulnerable in the event of further repricing on the Fed side. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks.
by thunderpips
3
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Price is reacting below our pivot level at 0.68068 which is in line with , 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support. Price can potentially take support at 0.67271, which is in line with , 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our resistance at 0.6861, which coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Pivot: 0.68068 Why we like it: , 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support 1st Support: 0.67271 , 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.68610 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar slipped on Wednesday after the country’s central bank hiked rates by less than hawks had wagered on, though it also lifted forecasts for how far rates would ultimately have to rise. Nevertheless, Kiwibank argues that the “move is consistent with the RBNZ’s already signaled measured approach to policy tightening, and it is already ahead of most central banks withdrawing policy stimulus.” Adding that, they now see rates at 2.5% by 2023.
by thunderpips
2
NZDUSD potential for dip |24th NovPrice is near sell entry price of 0.69568 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 0.68612 which is also the graphical swing low level. Our bearish bias is supported by ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
NZDUSD potential for dip |24th NovPrice is trading in a descending channel and near sell entry price of 0.69568 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 0.68612 which is also the graphical swing low level. Our bearish bias is supported by ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet