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NZD-USD

Pullback on NZDUSD presents an opportunity to sell Looking at the daily time frame, prices are currently testing a key supply zone with potential for further downside. On the M30 time frame, prices broke below the ascending trend line and is facing bearish pressure from the 34EMA as well. A pullback to test its resistance zone at 0.72010 which lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support target at 0.71520, in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. MACD is showing signs of bearish pressure as well.
Short
by Salzworth
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Price is reacting below our pivot level at 0.71917 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Price can potentially take support at 0.70895, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, price may rise up to our resistance at 0.72163, which coincides with 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing high resistance . This is further supported by how price is likely to reverse off the RSI resistance level. Pivot: 0.71917 Why we like it: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level 1st Support: 0.70895 Why we like it: 61.8% Fibonacci extension level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.72163 Why we like it: 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing high resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
NZDUSD facing bullish pressure, potential for more upside!Price is above 1st support at 0.713 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. It could potentially bullish from 1st support at 0.713 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension to 1st resistance at 0.72454 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by how Price is holding above the MA, the Ichimoku cloud and Stochastic is abiding to an ascending trendline support. Otherwise price may continue to bearish to 2nd support at 0.70932 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a breakout!Price is approaching and likely to breakout of strong pivot level of 0.71422. This level coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci extension level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support. A break and close above this level could see price swing towards 1st resistance at 0.72115. This level is strengthened by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support. Finally, we can expect price to take support at 0.70954, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support . This is further supported by how price is now holding above the Ichimoku cloud support. Pivot: 0.71422 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci extension level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap support 1st Support: 0.70954 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 100% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.72115 Why we like it: 127.2% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Long
by VantageMarkets
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Friday’s price action was once again a good example what an impact rising virus cases can still have on sentiment. The NZD was an underperformer on Friday as virus cases reached new record highs. If cases continue to climb, it will most likely lead to more restrictive measures, which could dent the market’s rate expectations from the RBNZ, so one to watch closely in the sessions to come. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -2308 with a net non-commercial position of +6440. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the short- term though, as we mentioned above, the virus situation could see some of the recent upside given back. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish . 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. Economic Data Economic data will be very light in the incoming week with the main highlights being PCE and Advanced GDP (old news). Also keep in mind that the Fed has largely reduced the impact of economic data going into the November FOMC meeting by already acknowledged a Nov taper and a possible mid-2022 conclusion. So, even though data will be important, it’s unlikely to sway the Fed from their tapering plans. 5. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +872 with a net non-commercial position of +35934. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning measures over 2-standard deviation on a 1-year look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks while still trading close to YTD highs. Thus, reflationary data and overall risk sentiment will be a key focus for the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
1
NZDUSD 400pip Short!Hello Traders, Here we have a NZDUSD long trade idea. If you like this idea please show your support! This trade idea is based off the fact of the USD reaching a weekly low and we can see some strength beginning to occur making NZDUSD pair weaker. Also the NZD is at a monthly high since the beginning of May so we are expecting some weakness which already seems to be happening now which we can see across other NZD pairs. NZD Weakness in NZDCHF below This trade has 2 TP zones Entry 0.72130 Take Profit 1 (0.695) : 260 pips Take Profit 2 (0.68130) : 400 pips Stop Loss : 30 pips Overall RISK:REWARD : 13.33 Check out my educational posts down below! Please trade with caution and make sure you set your stop losses! Happy Trading 😁
Short
by Pips-Collector
2
NZDUSD is on pivot, potential to dip | 21st octPrice is approaching in a ascending trend line . If price were to break the ascending trend line , price can do a reversal and continue to dip to the take profit level of 0.70380 which is also Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% and 78.6% projection level. Our bearish bias is supported by stochastic as it is near resistance level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
3
#AUDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a reversal! Price is approaching pivot level of 0.72252 where we have 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing high resistance lining up. A reversal from this level might see price take support at 0.7095, which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level horizontal overlap support. Finally, price is unlikely to surpass our strong resistance at 0.72863, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance . This is further supported by how price is likely to reverse off the Stochastic resistance level. Pivot: 0.72252 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing high resistance 1st Support: 0.70950 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levelhorizontal overlap support 1st Resistance: 0.72863 Why we like it: horizontal swing high resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD is on pivot, potential to dip | 21st oct Price is approaching in a ascending trend line. If price were to break the ascending trend line, price can do a reversal and continue to dip to the take profit level of 0.70380 which is also Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% and 78.6% projection level. Our bearish bias is supported by stochastic as it is near resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD/USD | New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar Trading AnalysisWelcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
2
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potential for a reversal! Price is approaching pivot level of 0.71518 where we have 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal swing high resistance lining up. A reversal from this level might see price take support at 0.69828, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal swing low support. Finally, price is unlikely to surpass our strong resistance at 0.72115, which coincides with 100% Fibonacci extension level, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price is likely to reverse off the Stochastic resistance level. Pivot: 0.71518 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal swing high resistance 1st Support: 0.69828 Why we like it: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal swing low support 1st Resistance: 0.72115 Why we like it: 100% Fibonacci extension level, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD potential for dip | 19th OctPrice is trading near our sell entry price of 0.71457 which is also Fibonacci projection of 100% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can then potentially dip to the take profit level of 61.8% Fibonacci projection level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Our temporary bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator which shows that it is near resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their October meeting, the RBNZ delivered on market expectations and raised the OCR by 25-basis points to an OCR of 0.50%. As the 25- basis point hike was already fully priced in, the fact that the bank did not provide any new additional information saw a textbook buy-therumour-sell-the-fact price reaction with the NZD pushing lower. As has recently been the case with most central bank commentary, there was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting that headline CPI inflation to increase above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of that part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term. Furthermore, the most important take away from the RBNZ statement for us was that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the mediumterm outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside as the bank remains the most hawkish among the major central banks. As interest rates keeps rising, we think the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +692 with a net non-commercial position of +8748. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish . 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) 4. Economic Data Economic data will be very light in the incoming week with the main highlight being IHS Markit Flash PMI data. However, also keep in mind that the Fed has largely taken the sting out of economic data going into the November FOMC meeting as they have already acknowledged a November taper announcement as well as a possible mid-2022 conclusion. Thus, even though economic data will still be important, it is unlikely that incoming data will sway the Fed from their tapering plans. 5. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +3036 with a net non-commercial position of +35062. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning measures over 2-standard deviation on a 1-year, 6-month and 3- month look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks while still trading close to YTD highs. Thus, reflationary data and overall risk sentiment will be a focus for the USD.
by thunderpips
2
NZDUSD bullish breakout, potential for further rise!Price has shown a bullish breakout from the descending trendline resistance-turned-support, and is also holding above the moving average as well. We could see a further rise from 1st support at 0.69519 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap support, towards 1st resistance at 0.70270 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by how Price is holding above the Ichimoku cloud and RSI is being held up by a corresponding ascending trendline support. Otherwise Price may bearish towards 2nd support at 0.69213 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
2
#NZDUSD approaching pivot, potentail for a reversal! Price is approaching pivot level of 0.69818 where we have 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance lining up. A reversal from this level might see price take support at 0.6807, which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support. Finally, price is unlikely to surpass our strong resistance at 0.70855, which coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance . This is further supported by how price is holding below the EMA Pivot: 0.69818 Why we like it: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & horizontal overlap resistance 1st Support: 0.68070 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal swing low support 1st Resistance: 0.70855 Why we like it: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level & horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets