NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
At their October meeting, the RBNZ delivered on market expectations and raised the OCR by 25-basis points to an OCR of 0.50%. As the 25- basis point hike was already fully priced in, the fact that the bank did not provide any new additional information saw a textbook buy-therumour-sell-the-fact price reaction with the NZD pushing lower. As has recently been the case with most central bank commentary, there was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting that headline CPI inflation to increase above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of that part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term. Furthermore, the most important take away from the RBNZ statement for us was that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the mediumterm outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus
for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside as the bank remains the most hawkish among the major central banks. As interest rates keeps rising, we think the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead.
2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
3. The country’s economic and health developments
So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -2190 with a net non-commercial position of +8052. The flush lower in the NZD after the RBNZ was in line with our expectations as the bar for a hawkish surprise was quite high going into the meeting. However, after the buy-the-rumour- sell-the-fact reaction and subsequent flush lower, the NZD is back at some very attractive med-term levels, especially versus the low-yielding currencies like the JPY and the CHF, thus we like the odds of looking for med-term allocations to the upside in the NZDJPY and NZDCHF.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED
More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation . All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish .
2. Real Yields
With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term .
3. The global risk outlook
One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata. org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term , the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation)
4. Economic Data
This week we’ll finally have the September NFP print, but all the previous excitement about this event has been mitigated with the Fed’s previous meeting. The Fed’s comments that they don’t need to see a huge or stellar jobs print but that a decent print will do, has largely taken the sting out of the Sep NFP print. The current concern about inflation means that the Average Hourly Earnings release could be of more interest in market participants to see whether the current labour supply shortage sparks further acceleration in wages.
5. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +5565 with a net non-commercial position of +32026. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but with both large speculators and leveraged funds sitting in net-long territory, it does mean that the Dollar could be more sensitive from mean reversion while still elevated after the recent push higher into new YTD highs. Thus, possible reflationary data will be a key focus point for the USD in the weeks ahead.
