NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. Last week we saw very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates last week was mostly to do with optics and not due to perceived risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points, confirming the bank’s hawkish tone and placing the RBNZ once again miles ahead of any other major central banks in terms of policy normalization and tightening.
3. The country’s economic and health developments
The main focus right now will be on how quickly the New Zealand government can get the virus situation under control. We’ve already heard some good news on Thursday reporting that the government has been able to trace the source of the Delta case and should be able to get the situation under control. This will be a key factor to watch for the NZD in the next few sessions.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the NZD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -127 with a net non-commercial position of -362. Positioning data was very interesting for the NZD, as it didn’t show any meaningful drop in the NZD after the flush lower as markets repriced their aggressive rate hike bets going into the RBNZ meeting. With the overall optimistic rate path, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with positioning at neutral the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL
1. The global risk outlook.
Global economic data continues to surprise lower and should continue to struggle to surprise to the upside after the pandemic rebound. As the USD usually moves inversely to global growth that should be supportive for the USD.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED
In July the FOMC noted that the economy has made progress toward their goals, and they’ll continue to assess progress in coming meetings. They also took a more sanguine view of the virus situation by removing prior comments that sectors affected by the pandemic ‘remain weak but have shown improvement’ and instead replaced it with ‘sectors most affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered’. This was initially seen as less dovish, but Powell used his usual dovish tone to correct any ‘hawkish’ takes by stressing that employment still has a ‘ways to go’ and noted that there was still "some ground to cover" when it comes to the labour market. He also reiterated that any decision to announce tapering will be done well in advance. For now, markets are looking at the incoming data to decide whether tapering will be announced at the Jackson Hole Symposium or in the fall. This past week we some interesting comments from Fed’s Waller who tilted their language and stance towards Bullard and Kaplan in expecting that two more solid employment prints (800K-1M) would mean substantial further progress has been met and tapering could then start at a faster pace. This was bullish for the USD, but the more important and market moving comments came from Fed’s Clarida who has seemingly moved into the Neutral camp (previously dovish) by saying he agrees with the median Fed projections of a first hike by early 2023 and more importantly his comments about inflation has moved away from the sanguine view expressed by the doves and is more concerned about current price pressures. This shift saw Dollar upside with all eyes on the Sep NFP to see whether markets will expect Sep or Dec to be the official tapering announcement meeting.
3. Real Yields
Despite recent divergence between the USD and US real yields, we still think further downside in real yields will be a struggle so close to new cycle lows and that probability is skewed higher from here given the outlook for growth, inflation and tapering and should support the USD.
4. Economic Data
This week was all about Jackson Hole…and with the hawks and neutral members turning more hawkish, it all comes down to this week’s NFP report where another sizable beat should be enough to satisfy the substantial progress (at least for a big chunk of the FOMC members). This NFP has the potential to change market expectations about not only the start but also the pace of tapering, so arguably one of the most important data points we’ve had in quite some time.
5. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the USD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -1151 with a net non-commercial position of +20362. For now, with the fundamental outlook still neutral, and with positioning at current levels the incoming data will remain the key driver for the USD’s short-term volatility, with the NFP this week the main event to keep on the radar.
NZD-USD
NZD USD BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - US DOLLAR)NZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD.
3. The country’s economic and health developments
The main focus right now will be on how quickly the New Zealand government can get the virus situation under control. We’ve already heard some good news on Thursday reporting that the government has been able to trace the source of the Delta case and should be able to get the situation under control. This will be a key factor to watch for the NZD in the next few sessions.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the NZD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of 797 with a net non-commercial position of -235. It’s important to keep in mind the data will not reflect the big flush lower in the NZD we saw after the virus situation caused market participants to dial down their aggressive hike expectations for the RBNZ. With the overall optimistic rate path the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with positioning at neutral the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL
1. The global risk outlook.
Global economic data continues to surprise lower and should continue to struggle to surprise to the upside after the pandemic rebound. As the USD usually moves inversely to global growth that should be supportive for the USD.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED
In July the FOMC noted that the economy has made progress toward their goals, and they’ll continue to assess progress in coming meetings. They also took a more sanguine view of the virus situation by removing prior comments that sectors affected by the pandemic ‘remain weak but have shown improvement’ and instead replaced it with ‘sectors most affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered’. This was initially seen as less dovish, but Powell used his usual dovish tone to correct any ‘hawkish’ takes by stressing that employment still has a ‘ways to go’ and noted that there was still "some ground to cover" when it comes to the labour market. He also reiterated that any decision to announce tapering will be done well in advance. For now, markets are looking at the incoming data to decide whether tapering will be announced at the Jackson Hole Symposium or in the fall. This past week we some interesting comments from Fed’s Waller who tilted their language and stance towards Bullard and Kaplan in expecting that two more solid employment prints (800K-1M) would mean substantial further progress has been met and tapering could then start at a faster pace. This was bullish for the USD, but the more important and market moving comments came from Fed’s Clarida who has seemingly moved into the Neutral camp (previously dovish) by saying he agrees with the median Fed projections of a first hike by early 2023 and more importantly his comments about inflation has moved away from the sanguine view expressed by the doves and is more concerned about current price pressures. This shift saw Dollar upside with all eyes on the Sep NFP to see whether markets will expect Sep or Dec to be the official tapering announcement meeting.
3. Real Yields
Despite recent divergence between the USD and US real yields, we still think further downside in real yields will be a struggle so close to new cycle lows and that probability is skewed higher from here given the outlook for growth, inflation and tapering and should support the USD.
4. Economic Data
Retail sales came in below consensus but given the price action it was clear that majority of participants were looking for a much worse number following the colossal drop in the Univ Mich Sentiment report the week before. However, the USD was also supported by the jittery and risk off flows in the markets and was further aided by the Fed’s minutes which confirmed that the median view of the board has shifted towards earlier tapering. In the week ahead all eyes will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium to see whether the market gets an unofficial tapering announcement nod from Fed Chair Powell which if it happens will open up the possibility of an official announcement at the Sep meeting.
5. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data for the USD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -115 with a net non-commercial position of +19211. For now, with the fundamental outlook still neutral, and with positioning at current levels the incoming data will remain the key driver for the USD’s short-term volatility , with the Jackson Hole and GDP this week the main events to keep on the radar.
NZDUSD Long 290pips! First TP over 100pipsHere we have a beautiful FX:NZDUSD setup which is at the bottom of the channel and in a structure zone. This has also broken our confirmation trendline which shows we are preparing to move in the Long direction.
First TP 110 pips
Second TP 290 pips
SL 20 pips below trendline & structure
Overall Risk:Reward of 1:14.4 which is superb!
NZD/USD: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION & NEXT TARGET|LONG🔔New Zealand Retail Sales for the second quarter increased 3.3% quarterly and 33.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to New Zealand Retail Sales for the first quarter, which increased 2.8% quarterly and 6.6% annualized.
US New Home Sales for July are predicted to increase 3.0% monthly to 700K new homes. Forex traders can compare this to US New Home Sales for June, which decreased 6.6% monthly to 676K new homes.
The forecast for the NZD/USD turned bullish after price action completed its sell-off and started to recover.
Can bulls rally the NZD/USD and pressure this currency pair into its next horizontal resistance area ?
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NZD/USD LONG possibilityHello there traders!
As always we provide you with analysis on tradingview.
Currently we are looking at the NZD/USD where we had a nice impuls and corrective move.
Structure tested supply zone and created a reversed H&S .
Bullish pressure pushes the market up and after the retest of the right shoulder we should see NZD/USD take its flight to the moon.
We also have seen the counter-trendline break wich indicates we are bullish .
Last but not least we see the market create H&S and a rejection of the retest.
This means we are satisfied and ready to take the trade.
Have a good week!
NZDUSD ready for a new recent low 🦐NZDUSD on the daily chart is consolidating above the weekly support.
The market after a few tests of it is now pushing for a break.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below and the rules of the Academy will be satisfied we will set a nice short order.
––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
NZDUSD facing bearish pressure | 30th July 2021NZDUSD reversing from sell entry, in line with 100% Fibonacci resistance, and is likely to fall to take profit, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension . Alternatively, prices may rally to stop loss, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement . Stochastic approaching hidden resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD facing bearish pressure! | 30th July 2021NZDUSD has reversed from 1st resistance of 0.70193, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices are expected to fall to 1st support of 0.68809, in line with 127,2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices may rally towards 2nd resistance of 0.70940, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement. Indicator supports a bearish view.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
NZDUSD looking up 🦐NZDUSD after the test of the weekly support started a move to the upside.
The market has now reached the upper trendline of the minor descending channel around a daily support.
According to Plancton's strategy if the market will provide an inversion and the rules will be satisfied we can set a nice long order.
––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
NZDUSD approaching bearish reversal | 29th July 2021NZDUSD is approaching sell entry, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension . Prices are likely to reverse and fall to take profit, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension . Alternatively, prices may rally to stop loss, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension . Indicator supporting bearish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZD USD long 29 -July - 2021
NZD/ USD
Long oportunity for today
If you take a look at Weekly time frame, you will se that this pair hit a stong support level.
On the same time frame we will observe that 100 MA is under candlesticks and that is indicate an uptrend, bullish trend.
I will be a buyer if the next 15 Mins candle will close over highlighted support zone.
I will use following entry point and TP; SL
Entry @ 0.69879
SL @ 0.69654, around 200 pips.
TP @ 0.70717 @ around 800 pips.
Please be free to use personal money management.
For any details or questions, please DM !
NZD/USD:UPDATE DOWNTREND|PRICE ACTION|FIBO ANALISYS|SHORT 🔔Update previous Idea in NZD/USD...close to take profits....
Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this.
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Have a Good Day Trading !
NZDUSD facing bearish pressure | 28th July 2021NZDUSD is approaching from sell entry, in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices are expected to fall to take profit, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, prices may rally to stop loss, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Indicators are showing bearish pressure.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD | SHORTING THIS TRADE MAKES SENSE Hey Traders,
So this trade looks like a good selling opportunity, especially if it closes as a bearish engulfing for confirmation towards the downside.
Monthly, weekly and daily moving averages well above the candlesticks showing further bearish pressure.
It recently had a pullback from the daily moving average or 4h 200 so it seems to have had a push exhaustion push scenario going back down.
It also broke out our recent up-trend
NZDUSD facing bearish pressure | 27th July 2021NZDUSD holding below descending trendline resistance. With stochastic approaching hidden resistance at 92.95 , a short term reversal from our 1st resistance of 0.70066 towards graphical swing low and 1st support at 0.68809 could be possible.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
NZD/USD:DOWNTREND|PRICE ACTION+FIBO ANALISYS|SHORT SETUP 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this.
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Have a Good Day Trading !