NZD/USD Bullish AnalysisGood morning traders, today we bring you our analysis on NZD/USD, since we consider that it is in an interesting movement where we can take advantage.
🔸As we can see, the price generated a break in the bullish channel, and for some days we saw a bearish movement.
🔸Although the channel had been broken, it was not a trend change, as the sequence of higher highs and higher lows was still valid, which kept the uptrend active.
🔸To consider a trend change, we need a break of the Support Zone.
🔸In this correction that the price made, we can draw a bullish flag.
🔸It was broken to the upside, and now the price is in bullish momentum.
🔸We consider that the first target is the previous high, and in case it is broken, there is a great upside potential.
NZD-USD
Nzdusd...more downside if break lower!Short short...Likewise for AUDUSD
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NZD: Current sentiment driversLatest developments:
March 17 – GDP for Q4 printed at -1.0% Q/Q and -0.9% Y/Y. Commenting on the contraction in economic activity, Capital Economics stated “The modest solid decline in activity in Q4 reflects the fading of pent up demand and means that in New Zealand a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1.”
February 24 – The RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at a record low of 0.25% and asset purchases at NZ$100 billion as expected. The central bank kept future rate cuts on the table but added that the domestic economy’s resilience implies no significant additional stimulus is currently required.
November 3 – For Q4, the Unemployment Rate in New Zealand printed below consensus at 4.9% from 5.3% in Q3. Additionally, Employment Change printed at 0.6% versus market consensus of 0.0%.
January 21 – Inflation for Q4 saw CPI Y/Y remain unchanged at 1.4% while CPI Q/Q printed at 0.5% from a prior of 0.7%.
Future sentiment shifts:
Due to its high beta status, NZD’s performance over recent months has been strongly correlated with the market’s overall risk tone, with the currency weakening substantially as markets sold off and strengthening as the risk tone recovered and turned positive.
Recent global data has been encouraging, continuing to support NZD and the overall risk tone; although, the ongoing spread of the virus throughout the world and second waves in many countries still pose significant risks.
For a fundamental improvement in NZD’s outlook and bias, there will need to be an easing of concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (which appears likely given the vaccine rollout). However, even then, NZD upside could become an uphill battle with many analysts arguing the currency is approaching overvalued levels.
Primary drivers:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand – New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook plays a key role in NZD’s fundamental outlook. A hawkish stance from the RBNZ and expectations for policy tightening will support NZD; while a dovish stance and expectations for policy easing will pressure NZD.
Risk Tone – Due to its high beta status, NZD is strongly correlated with the overall risk tone; strengthening in risk on environments and weakening in risk off environments.
Commodity Markets – NZD is indirectly correlated with commodity markets due to New Zealand’s dependence on China and Australia for trade. As both Australia’s and China’s economies influence and are influenced by the commodities complex, NZD tends to move in accordance with the commodities markets, but also with AUD.
NZDUSD ready for a break below 🦐NZDUSD after the last bearish impulse retraced for the test of the resistance inside an ascending channel.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order.
––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
NZDUSD - FOREX - 13. APR. 2021Welcome to our weekly trade setup ( NZDUSD )!
-
1 HOUR
Bullish market reaction..
4 HOUR
Overall sideways market structure..
DAILY
Looking for more bullish pressure and price action.
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FOREX SETUP
BUY NZDCAD
ENTRY LEVEL @ 0.88330
SL @ 0.88050
TP @ 0.88780
Max Risk: 0.5% - 1%!
(Remember to add a few pips to all levels - different Brokers!)
Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive.
Have a great week everyone!
ALAN
NZD/USD: Trend continuation (bearish)Hey guys,
The pair strongly broke its initial balance during the Asian session and has not been able to get back at these levels.
Since the current value area is lower than the previous ones with lower highs and lower lows printing, I am favoring a trend continuation (bearish).
I will target the immediate support at around 0.70 levels.
The RR for this trade is slightly above 2.
Trade at your own risk.
Cheers
Jesse
NZD: Current sentiment driversLatest developments:
March 17 – GDP for Q4 printed at -1.0% Q/Q and -0.9% Y/Y. Commenting on the contraction in economic activity, Capital Economics stated “The modest solid decline in activity in Q4 reflects the fading of pent up demand and means that in New Zealand a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1.”
February 24 – The RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at a record low of 0.25% and asset purchases at NZ$100 billion as expected. The central bank kept future rate cuts on the table but added that the domestic economy’s resilience implies no significant additional stimulus is currently required.
November 3 – For Q4, the Unemployment Rate in New Zealand printed below consensus at 4.9% from 5.3% in Q3. Additionally, Employment Change printed at 0.6% versus market consensus of 0.0%.
January 21 – Inflation for Q4 saw CPI Y/Y remain unchanged at 1.4% while CPI Q/Q printed at 0.5% from a prior of 0.7%.
Future sentiment shifts:
Due to its high beta status, NZD’s performance over recent months has been strongly correlated with the market’s overall risk tone, with the currency weakening substantially as markets sold off and strengthening as the risk tone recovered and turned positive.
Recent global data has been encouraging, continuing to support NZD and the overall risk tone; although, the ongoing spread of the virus throughout the world and second waves in many countries still pose significant risks.
For a fundamental improvement in NZD’s outlook and bias, there will need to be an easing of concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (which appears likely given the vaccine rollout). However, even then, NZD upside could become an uphill battle with many analysts arguing the currency is approaching overvalued levels.
Primary drivers:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand – New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook plays a key role in NZD’s fundamental outlook. A hawkish stance from the RBNZ and expectations for policy tightening will support NZD; while a dovish stance and expectations for policy easing will pressure NZD.
Risk Tone – Due to its high beta status, NZD is strongly correlated with the overall risk tone; strengthening in risk on environments and weakening in risk off environments.
Commodity Markets – NZD is indirectly correlated with commodity markets due to New Zealand’s dependence on China and Australia for trade. As both Australia’s and China’s economies influence and are influenced by the commodities complex, NZD tends to move in accordance with the commodities markets, but also with AUD.
Analysis on NZDUSDHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it.
As we can see, the price is inside ASCENDING CHANNEL and also hit its TRENDLINE RESISTANCE. Breakout can be on the down side. WAIT FOR THE BREAKOUT.
Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all.
There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand.
So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.
NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook.
2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. However, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back.
3. The country’s economic and health developments
With the new macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government, it will be very important to keep close track of the virus situation in NZ as well as the incoming data. If incoming data starts to show marked deterioration, that will further push back tapering and rate normalization expectations for the RBNZ and could tilt the fundamental outlook to neutral from weak bullish.
Waiting for a new Bearish Impulse on NZD/USDGood morning traders, today we will show you our analysis of the NZD/USD pair in two timeframes that we consider relevant to make a decision in the short term.
🔸First, we can see in the daily chart that the price broke the bullish channel and has been consolidating for several days.
🔸You have not yet found any relevant support area where we can consider a reversion.
🔸The next support zone is at 0.66000.
🔸What we are waiting for is a breakout of the current corrective move, which could initiate the next bearish momentum.
NZD: Current sentiment driversLatest developments:
March 17 – GDP for Q4 printed at -1.0% Q/Q and -0.9% Y/Y. Commenting on the contraction in economic activity, Capital Economics stated “The modest solid decline in activity in Q4 reflects the fading of pent up demand and means that in New Zealand a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1.”
February 24 – The RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at a record low of 0.25% and asset purchases at NZ$100 billion as expected. The central bank kept future rate cuts on the table but added that the domestic economy’s resilience implies no significant additional stimulus is currently required.
November 3 – For Q4, the Unemployment Rate in New Zealand printed below consensus at 4.9% from 5.3% in Q3. Additionally, Employment Change printed at 0.6% versus market consensus of 0.0%.
January 21 – Inflation for Q4 saw CPI Y/Y remain unchanged at 1.4% while CPI Q/Q printed at 0.5% from a prior of 0.7%
Future sentiment shifts:
Due to its high beta status, NZD’s performance over recent months has been strongly correlated with the market’s overall risk tone, with the currency weakening substantially as markets sold off and strengthening as the risk tone recovered and turned positive.
Recent global data has been encouraging, continuing to support NZD and the overall risk tone; although, the ongoing spread of the virus throughout the world and second waves in many countries still pose significant risks.
For a fundamental improvement in NZD’s outlook and bias, there will need to be an easing of concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (which appears likely given the vaccine rollout). However, even then, NZD upside could become an uphill battle with many analysts arguing the currency is approaching overvalued levels.
Primary drivers:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand – New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook plays a key role in NZD’s fundamental outlook. A hawkish stance from the RBNZ and expectations for policy tightening will support NZD; while a dovish stance and expectations for policy easing will pressure NZD.
Risk Tone – Due to its high beta status, NZD is strongly correlated with the overall risk tone; strengthening in risk on environments and weakening in risk off environments.
Commodity Markets – NZD is indirectly correlated with commodity markets due to New Zealand’s dependence on China and Australia for trade. As both Australia’s and China’s economies influence and are influenced by the commodities complex, NZD tends to move in accordance with the commodities markets, but also with AUD.
NZD - WEAK BULLISHThe primary drivers for NZD are its high-beta status and the RBNZ's monetary policy outlook.
As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we
expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook.
However, regarding NZD's monetary policy outlook, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back.
NZDUSD - Continuation TradeOur last NZDUSD trade played out perfectly and we got in on the bear flag. Now to get another entry, we must wait for the price to stop its current wave and create a correction. Wait for price to create a bear flag like last time and enter on the break of the correction.
See links below as to why we're anticipating NZD weakness.
Goodluck and trade safe!
📚 The Perfect Impulse - Correction - Impulse 📚NZDUSD has recently given us the perfect impulse, correct, impulse move, which is probably our favourite pattern to trade.
The market moves in waves. There's an impulse wave, followed by a brief period of consolidation/correction where buyers and sellers accumulate their orders. This is often followed by another impulse wave in the same initial direction as the first impulse.
The great thing about these patterns is that we can have a clear stop placement, which is above the correction. If you have a closer look at this chart, you will be able to notice various impulse waves followed by corrections.
Do your best to find them in your trading!
NZDUSD - Continuation TradeOur last NZDUSD trade played out perfectly and we got in on the bear flag. Now to get another entry, we must wait for the price to stop its current wave and create a correction. Wait for price to create a bear flag like last time and enter on the break of the correction.
See links below as to why we're anticipating NZD weakness.
Goodluck and trade safe!
NZDUSD on a bear flag 🦐NZDUSD after our last analysis created a strong bearish impulse.
The price after the bottom retraced for the test of the resistance inside a bear flag.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we will set a nice short order.
––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
NZDUSD Sell running - lets see how it play out. 😎🙏👍🏼Entry details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren