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Nzd_usd

NZDUSD belatedly breaks up after hawkish RBNZ, broad USD selloffNZDUSD looks to have taken out resistance capped just below 0.6230, which may set the stage for upward extension toward resistance in the 0.6352-0.6469 zone. Reclaiming a foothold below 0.6150 now seems necessary to neutralize near-term upward pressure. Prices were relatively staid after November's RBNZ announcement registered on the hawkish end of expectations - seeing some gains at first but struggling to find momentum - but overall USD weakness offered fuel thereafter (with November FOMC meeting minutes at least somewhat helpful in pushing the Greenback lower, though its slide began before the news hit the wires).
Long
by IlyaSpivak
NZDUSD Bullish break to continue climbingIn the graph we can see how the price has broken the bearish structure that it carried and with it we expected this retreat to continue rising, the touch in the red point was either the retreat that we expected or a liquidity point that will be taken in the future to enable the green rectangle as bullish. (1) Breaking this zone increases the odds that the price will not return to the green area and we will have to look for inputs in the new momentum from the red dot.
Long
by Smart_Trading_Ipda
How I work in Forex: Nzd-Usd analysisIn this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target). Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my eye was Usd-Nzd. The price is at a level that is not sustainable in the long run for the New Zealand economy. In the last few years, the area 0.72300/0.72800 has been a very important level for Nzd-Usd and above that, the currency pair would be in an area of excess price (actually, already above 0.70000 Nzd-Usd is in an area of excess price). The operation that I am going to open has an optical of the medium-long period, if you are not in a position to hold open the position also for several months, do not replicate it. Let us proceed. The first thing I decide in each of my operations is how much I am willing to lose. My maximum loss is not equal for all the operations, with some more "particular" I have a smaller propensity to the risk. An example is precisely this operation. Although Nzd-Usd belongs to the currency pairs so-called "Majors," the New Zealand dollar is very similar to an "Exotic" currency, therefore with less volume and consequently more volatile and easily speculate. And besides, I already have other long positions on USD. For these reasons, I have decided that my maximum loss on the whole operation is $ 500, and based on the stop-loss, I will decide the position size to open. I now analyse Nzd-Usd trying to understand how it might move in the coming weeks and establish the type of trade and the entry-level. Above, you can see the daily chart with the Nzd-Usd sensitive levels highlighted. New Zealand had less impact from the covid-19 pandemic and this allowed its economy to be less affected. This led to a strong rise in its currency to the 0.75000 area against the US dollar. New Zealand, however, has a strongly export-based economy and a currency so strong, as mentioned earlier, is not sustainable in the long run. The New Zealand dollar also strengthened as many expected the central bank to intervene with a rate hike, "the Committee agreed that the risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, conditional on ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. The Committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives. Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience." However, this is currently unlikely, at least in the short term. Also because in recent months the New Zealand economy has slowed down, "Economic activity in New Zealand slowed over the summer months following the earlier rebound in domestic activity. December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced. Some members noted that supply chain disruptions could potentially constrain domestic activity in the near term. In addition, business credit growth and investment remain subdued." As for the US, the focus in recent weeks has been on inflation following the entry into force of Biden's economic stimulus plan, "with inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal (2%), the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time so that inflation averages 2 per cent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2 per cent." In the March "Summary of Economic Projections," the PCE inflation forecast for 2021 rose to 2.4% from 1.8% in December, and the Core PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.1% from 1.8% in December. Inflation is forecast at 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2022 for both. In the same document, you can see (you can find it on the Federal Reserve's website) that in March compared to December the GDP forecast was raised (to 6.5% in 2021 from 4.2% in December) and the unemployment rate lowered (to 4.5% in 2021 from 5.0% in December). Macroeconomic analysis shows what has already emerged above with New Zealand's data deteriorating in recent months while US data is improving almost steadily. If the vaccination continues apace, the US economy will recover quickly, as the UK economy is doing in Europe. Once the analysis is complete, how do I intend to proceed? I do not want to open the operation at once. The moment is particular and I would not be surprised to see Nzd-Usd go up even 300 pips. So, I decided to open a spy order at 0.72400 to see how the currency pair will react to that level. I will place the primary order, which is larger in size as it is closer to the stop-loss, at 0.73700. For both orders, spy order and primary order, I destine the same maximum loss, which I had decided to be $ 500, so my maximum loss for the two types of orders is $ 250 each. Now with the Value-at-Risk, I calculate the stop-loss and with the stop-loss, I calculate the size of the two orders. To be precise, I use CVaR to calculate the stop-loss (it is all explained in my book on fundamental analysis in forex) and the calculation gives me a stop-loss at 0.75200. I now calculate the two position sizes. Ultimately, I will open a short position of $ 9,000 at 0.72400 (spy order) and a short position of $ 17,000 at 0.73700 (primary order), with a stop-loss at 0.75200. As for the target, I always like to see how the currency pair moves to assess where to take profit. This, somewhat summarised, is how I work in Forex, how I analyse a currency pair and how I organise the whole operation.
Education
by TradingwDavid
2
NZD/USD shortThe New Zealand dollar has received a boost following the central banks decision to hold interest rates constant. This was in line with the general market consensus, however the boost likely gained more traction as it was referenced that it is unlikely there will be more cuts in the foreseeable. However, after a strong climb, price is now reaching an area which has previously acted as a key daily level of support which I am now expecting to turn resistance. Therefore, I will be looking to enter a short in this area in order to benefit from the pullback of the climb. It is worth noting that there is hidden bullish divergence forming on the MACD which has yet to produce a buy signal but I will be keeping an eye on this to ensure I am not holding a short trade as momentum shifts. Please undertake your own research before taking any trades
Short
by PhantomForex
KIWI weekly analyzeAs pictured above on weekly chart: ***if considering 12345 as a pattern, see that : 1) point (3) has correct 0.88 of (12) wave. 2) point (4) has correct 0.5 of (23) wave. so if search in harmonic patterns we found that it can be deep crab so: the point (5) could be at 1.618 Ext(12) that if draw Ext(34) and App(234) see that they are all convergence to each other so we have first cluster : 0.6080- 0.6120 ***On the other hand if considering XABCD pattern, see that: 1) B point is at 1.618Ext(XA) 2) C point is at 0.5Ret(AB) so i guess it's Black Swan pattern that: a) 1.13-2.618 Ext(AB) has been drawn (1st PRZ with brown color) b) 1.13-2.0 Ext(BC) has been drawn (2nd PRZ with blue color) ***Don't forget to draw support zone! if draw it, see that Support PRZ (that shown with Red color) absolutely located on 0.786-1.00 App(ABC) ***Finally if zoom out the chart and consider the big wave we have 0.618, 0.707, 0.786 retracement levels. Clearly , KIWI has 4 cluster that if convergent all, i think the Reverse PRZ is 0.6000 Range
Long
by Zeotrix
NZD/USD LONG Intra-Day Setup (45 Pip Reward/25 Pip Risk)Technical Analysis Pair: NZD/USD Bias: Long Entry: 0.68532 TP: 0.68972 SL: 0.68272 Why? DXY on pullback in bearish trend, engulfing the previous bullish candle with a bearish candle, and also rejecting at a key, daily, manipulative level, finding resistance and supply, and looking like it will continue to push downwards. Price on NZD/USD is in a big uptrend, with the MA's suggesting more buyers than sellers on H1 upwards. NZD/USD pulled back to the previous resistance level, using it as support. Price tapped the key 61.8 fib level on it's retracement, finding support at the psychological level of 0.685 Price formed a double bottom on this level on the 15 minute chart, with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern confirmation, and looks set to continue on it's overall trend. Take Profit is set at the 0.618 fib level, 45 pips away. Stop Loss is set at the previous lower low, 25 pips away, and if price touched the stop loss, the whole trend would be looking as though it will change. I'll keep you guys updated! Franco Instagram = @ francocrean ->
Long
by francocrean