Short NZDCHF Longterm based on 4H + 1D Charts + FundamentalsStrong downtrend since the start of 2017, making lower highs. Price is locked into a strong downward channel based on the 4H chart
Hidden divergence on the close of the 4H candle at 18:00 on 31st May shows the strong continuation of downward momentum.
We see a possible Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the 4H chart.
Fundamentals:
The RBNZ disappointed some investors last month by remaining relatively dovish on interest rates despite some stronger local data. New Zealand’s interest rates are at record lows, and the central bank has suggested that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable time based largely on the uncertain global picture. The Kiwi currency is still expected to remain weak with no interest rate hikes expected until early 2019.
The Swiss Franc (CHF), a noted safe-haven currency, continues to get stronger. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia have seen the Swiss Franc making strong gains, benefitting from an increased demand for safe-haven assets. If the deadlock over the Syrian conflict continues then the Franc could remain on a bullish trend , in spite of the threat of market intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
A 3.9 percent jump in exports in the three months through March helped push economic growth to 0.3 percent. While that fell short of the 0.5 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey, it’s still the strongest performance in three quarters.
I will look to short the NZDCHF with my stop loss at the conservative 0.70142 rate.
This research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.
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