NZDCHF approaching support, potential bounce!
NZDCHF is approaching our first support at 0.6684 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement) and a strong bounce might occur below this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 0.6748 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price should it bounce off this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Nzdshort
NZDUSD / 30m / H&SWait for a break and close below the neckline to enter. Tomorrow we have USD GDP at 8:30am EST so be very careful. Considering locking in your profits if before the announcement if the trade becomes active or let it run for the potential of larger gains.
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The opportunity to short NZDCAD The long term trend for this market is DOWNTREND
As you can see the market has retest the Support/ Resistance area and as you can see as the price hit the resistance zone, there is an existence of the Seller aroun that area,
Why i enter short at this market?
1) The long term trend is downtrend
2) The break of the Demand Trendline as you can see on the chart.
3) The SL is above the structure high
4) The exit is below at the major weekly support level
NZD/USD possible medium term scenarioThis seems to be a possible future scenario at this point - given recent USD strength, a correcting NZX, and downward pressure on commodities. I would say this is 97% technical analysis with a tiny bit of fundamental analysis sprinkled in for colour.
The last ending triangle at the bottom trendline broke upwards with conviction, I would expect this to do the same. It may reach the upper TL - if it falls short this would be a telling signal. Then possibly form another ABC that ends up breaking the lower TL.
No specifics or targets in this analysis. I am publishing it to see how closely reality tracks the analysis that I did over about 10 minutes.
Summary; short term long (if the triangle breaks upwards) and medium term short.
NZDUSD - Daily Chart AnalysisOne thing that I have noticed with this pair is that it moves erratically. Price only respects EMA on smaller time frames- 4H or <. As I am writing this price is breaking below another one of my support levels. If I could get a retest of the the 4H I will consider taking a short position since there should be positive U.S. data released on Wednesday.
NZDUSD - Weekly Chart AnalysisSimilar to monthly structure. Price has reached a critical point in the structure. Ideally, I would like there to be a break of trend support before there is any kind of retest of daily support/trend support. Looking for either a break of the neckline (conservative) or a break of trend support (aggressive) for the pattern to be activated. It seems that this pair is very sensitive to U.S. news, so trade with care.
NZDUSD Sell Opportunity NZDUSD just approached an interesting level where previously has stalled and reversed. Keep an eye for potential short opportunity, await confirmation with a solid downtrend candle, preferably on 4 hourly. *This is my personal analysis having watched the pair over the last few weeks. Breaking 0.74500 could see the pair continue to rally and reach 0.75600 and beyond (July 2017 High)
*Risk Warning: Trading Forex involves significant risk and can result in the loss of some or all of your invested capital. You should not invest money than you cannot afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved before considering trading. Take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and if your not sure then seek professional advice.
NZDUSD A Few Possibilities Few possibilities for the NZDUSD, this week the market will be focused on the tax bill which is likely to be passed soon so we may get some dollar strength and hence a lower NZDUSD however our entry is still based on signs of supply and demand entering the market so no entry until a clear sign.
Do you want 1000 pips quicklyNZD long interest is at record highs.
Many fundamental arguments for why NZD is overpriced - mainly NZD is biggest proponent of carry trade in G10.
Recession risk is underpriced - NZD the loser in global recession which is long overdue and WILL occur at some point due to 'tightening' financial conditions - USD, JPY the beneficiaries here
NZD longs have become the ' obvious ' trade especially vis-a-vis JPY.
The obvious is obviously wrong.
There is a 1000+ pips up for grabs here on the short side.
NZDCAD Double top, with double topsJust touching our bearish trend line, we have two double tops coming together to make a bigger double top. Trend line and the structure that we see here also coincide with historical support and resistance area, aswell as the round even number 0.9500 which price has yet failed to violate.
Above could very well be reason enough to see a bearish rotation where I see multiple potential targets. Main targets are 0.9440 and 0.9400. Longer term target is 0.9300.
NZDCAD Short setupA few clues here adding to this case:
Price clearly respected;
0.382 fib
Trend line
Structure
And it showed it respect by showing a double top (A) followed by a 2618 (X).
To our protection we have structure zone + fib + trend line (Z), all combining.
I entered my first position after double top.
Second position after 2618
Its a bold target, but price gives clear signals of its path.
My 1 enemy here is the bullish engulfing candle on the daily. But.. IF we want to find reasons NOT to enter, we will alwasy find it. We just have to weigh the odds against eachother.
As my last post, Im not even worried about the monetary loss, its already gone in my mind (lifts the stress off ones shoulders). I'm more interested in following this!
(NZDCAD have previously given clear signals, and then doing the exact opposite, will it continue?)
NZDCAD (1H) Short opportunity with bearish GartleyGartley completing within a price range that has previously been showing both support and resistance many times. Together with the structure we also have a bearish trend line to back up as resistance.
Target 0.382 fibo of A-D leg.
Lets see if we get filled
NZD/USD LONG with a SHORT SAFETYEntry 0.73000
Simple price action for this one. Possible long with the first target at 0.74000 which is sitting on the weekly S&R and possible targets of 0.7600 which is resting on the monthly S&R.
A break of the second level of resistance will confirm the end of the downtrend and give me more confluence that the pair will continue its bullish movement.
The possibility of the current bullish movement correcting after its break of weekly trendline resistance isn't that strong after it already retested the resistance but best to be safe and so a short has been set up with an entry on the re-enter of the weekly downtrend and targets set by the monthly trendline support 0.70000
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