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Nzdusdanalysis

Market Over-Reacts? NZD tanks more than 2% The New Zealand dollar experienced a significant drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in more than three months at $0.6039. This decline followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) expected decision to raise cash rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. However, the central bank also hinted that it might conclude its tightening campaign, which likely contributed to the currency's decline. In more positive news, inflation expectations eased during the first quarter, dropping from 3.30% to 2.79%, potentially solidifying the RBNZ's choice to halt further rate hikes. Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the NZD/USD pair, it is evident that it broke below the previous swing low at 0.6111. However, the selling momentum may have started to weaken in the past hour, as indicated by the extreme oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the pair's inability to close below 0.6100. The next target for a downward movement could be 0.6092, which seems to be the level where current sellers feel comfortable probing further. One potential explanation for this slowdown could be the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The minutes revealed a division among Federal Reserve officials during their previous meeting regarding the future direction of interest rates. Some members believed that further rate increases were necessary, while others anticipated a slowdown in economic growth that would negate the need for additional tightening measures. As a result, the committee decided to remove the phrase "additional policy firming may be appropriate" from its post-meeting statement. Market expectations currently indicate that the rate increase in May will be the final one in the current cycle. Furthermore, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce rates by approximately a quarter percentage point before the year's end. If this prediction holds true, it could be argued that the sharp decline in the New Zealand dollar is an overreaction.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND TECHNICAL BIAS#NZDUSD - NZDUSD has been going UP very fast in recent days. The reason for that is because the VIX is down and the strength of the dollar is decreasing. Because of that, every NZD BASED CURRENCY PAIR was BUY. AUD, NZD, CAD, CURRENCIES BUY in these few days due to MARKET RISK ON again this week. For that, the influence of USD was very strong. Fomc update also affected it strongly this time. And RBNZ made a 50 bps RATE HIKE. Therefore, the NZD STRENGTH is increasing very much. - Thus, COMMODITIES are selling quite fast. It also affects the NZD very strongly. - Anyway, NZDUSD can continue to BUY until 0.6550 LEVEL.. Before that, you can SELL at 0.6246 LEVEL.
by benny_marshall
NZD/USD to remain bid ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting?There are a growing number of calls for the RBNZ to deliver a hawkish 25bp hike tomorrow, due to the government's 'inflationary' budget delivered last week. This could also potentially result in the RBNZ upgrading their terminal rate in their quarterly forecasts. NZDUSD is consolidating on the 4-hour chart, having found support above the 200-day EMA. RSI (14) is above 50 and confirming the initial stages of this assumed trend, and OBV (on balance volume) has broken to new cycle highs to suggest underlying bullish pressure. We've identified around the monthly R1 pivot ~0.6340 for an initial upside target, and the near-term bias remains bullish above the 200-day EMA.
Long
by CityIndex
A clearer chartInitially price tested the 4h liquidity level and made a retracement which led to a liquidity sweep that reduced price to the 4h breaker block. The market started to pushing to the upside in a corrective manner and created an internal distribution phase, then impulsively dropped to mitigate the order block and drove price to the upside once more. From this current data the market is showing a high potential of making a pullback to the 4h order block then provide momentum for an aggressive bullish move…
by tokelohomi
NZD/USD 4H chart analysis, time for a pullback?As expected, NZD/USD fell strongly from the 0.6380 resistance level in the 4Hour chart. Since then, price is down 2%. At present, it seems NZD/USD is consolidating in the dynamic support level in the 4H chart. If we can see multiple bullish candles in the 0.6250 level, it would indicate that a pullback is about to happen. However, I do no recommend buying right away. Sellers can wait for a pullback to 0.6350 before selling again.
by YourLazyTrader
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