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Nzdusdanalysis

NZDUSD; Forex recap and the week aheadWhile NZDUSD continued its bearishness last week, it showed a strong move up on Wednesday to produce a Thursday high. However, it sold off very quickly as it continued its drop during Thursday's London and New York sessions. The pair mostly consolidated on Monday and Tuesday. NZ Unemployment Rate report was the only high impact news coming from New Zealand last week but failed to affect a substantial move, and the NZDUSD kept inside of Monday’s range. Last week, the big fundamental impact came from the US, which had FOMC on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. The former event is what finally broke the pair out of its range, pushing up over 130 pips in just a couple of hours. As noted above, the pair quickly reversed this climb and eventually ended the week lower by 0.77%. The NZDUSD has now racked up a monthly loss of just over 7.00%. The next two worst performing pairs on the monthly time scale are the GBPUSD and the AUDUSD, down by 5.63% and 5.48%, respectively. In the chart, we see the weekly opening price, and last Thursday’s high noted. In the bottom window, we see the Stochastic indicator from TradingView. Traders who use this indicator will try to look for overbought or oversold areas in price - gauging whether a sell or buy is unfolding when the indicator is showing extremes on either end of the window. It could also be used for divergence as we see a few hours before FOMC news. The indicator did not make a lower low, while the NZD/USD moved slightly lower than the low made in the previous session. Next week’s high impact events Events relating to the NZDUSD this week are the numerous speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, speaks on Monday and Tuesday, likely to further dampen hopes for a 75 basis points hike from the Fed in June. The more hawkish officials such as John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Christopher Waller (Board of Governors) take the mic after Bostic, potential building a case against Bostic’s and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovishness. Thrown in the mix this week is the US Inflation Rate YoY for April. This report is due on Wednesday (UTC+4) and is expected to fall closer to 8.0% from 8.5% in March.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD: KIWI the bird OR KIWI the fruit falling off the tree?hello, hi fellow traders, simple chart only with horizontal support levels, but all represent important levels that provided high volumes of trading during the past times. my bias: the nearing deep to act as safe buy/long with target by the end of Q1/2023 above 2021 highs. as I expect the central banks interest rates "drama" to get finished by then and the world's economies will get much more stable and forecasting demand for commodities will get clear and New Zealand will have much higher demand for their exports (positive for KIWI == the bird scenario). meanwhile, in the short term, say the rest of H1/2022 we are about to experience volatile price action. the mix of unclear interest rates policies, geo-political tensions, frequently changing GDP growth forecasts, all these make the "fear" in the market to have the upper hand. promising a deep in the time horizon mentioned. now, how low the exchange rate of NZD/USD will go during that process? (== "guessing" time) actual investment strategy: accumulating around current 2022 lows and within the 0.60-0.65 cluster seems optimal what if it goes under 0.60? (== KIWI the fruit falling off the tree scenario) -- first, this is highly unlikely in my core view. second, the financial trading business offers very good instruments to collect premiums when the market goes for awhile beyond ranges. the best strategy in such case would be to SELL/WRITE CALL options 1-3 months further 3%-5% above the cost of the position (== selling covered call - you cannot lose more but only to make less in case the market expires in the money). optimal case here, the premiums collected expire out the money and the position in the money, while the next leg UP will start just after the expiry out the money. but, do not get too busy with that, you always can open new longs not being part of the running longs that are involved with the options strategy. this is MONEY/POSITION/TRADE/RISK management of bit higher grade. not really a thing for day traders or near future swing traders. this is management of an investment. further, how lower this pair will go during the weeks before turning higher the coming months? == risk management patience and well established plan will do a good work for you. I have no clue if this one will turn into great money making investment, I know that the worst case scenario is not a pain making loss and failure in this pair means that there is another great making making investment running in parallel as soon and IF that 0.6000 barrier falls on quarterly close basis. summary: buy the deeps carefully, be patient until 2021 highs will get taken. investment it is, not a trade! just my analysis/opinion, nothing more than that, nothing less than that. can be dead wrong or lucky "fluky" right good luck
by FlukeTrading
NZDUSD change of trend! Let's take a plane to Bahamas!In my previous analysis on this pair I mentioned of it falling into the level it is now. I marked this level to be a level of interest for a few reasons. 1. It acted as strong support level in the past (going back to October 2018) looking at my black horizontal line. 2. Around 2019 and 2020 we see price reacting on this level several times. It had been a battle field for bulls and bears, a fight for dominance. 3. Price had been in a downtrend since February 2021, falling from its February 2021 high, and price was moving in an descending channel. 4. Price has now reached the support of this falling channel which also intersect with our black horizontal line (at confluence). From here I expect bulls to take over the battle and a rise from here would last at least until price reaches the resistance of the falling channel. Looking for best buy entry? On a 1 hour timeframe as shown on the chart below, price broke above the minor downtrend trendline. This means there's already a high chance that price will push up which will eventually lead to an acceleration in bullish momentum. Like if you find this idea helpful. Comment below if you have something to add. All the best!
Long
by Forexintelligence_NA
NZDUSDThe NZD/USD hovered near the 0.64100 ratio yesterday and remains within the weakest part of its long term price range as of today. Values of the NZD/USD are traversing prices not sincerely tested since June of 2020. However it should be noted that on the 4th of April, almost one month ago, the NZD/USD was trading near the 0.70300 vicinity. Traders are certainly aware of the downward cycle the NZD/USD has encountered the past month as financial institutions have positioned their cash holdings, as they anticipate the next interest rate hike from the U.S Federal Reserve. However in January of this year the NZD/USD was trading momentarily near a low of around 0.64850 which highlights the forex pair has moved within these lower depths before and has managed to fight upwards. While technical traders cannot be blamed for looking at long term charts and can plainly see the NZD/USD was trading near lows of 0.54850 in March of 2020, considerations must be correlated. Downward pressure in the NZD/USD has certainly continued to make short term support vulnerable as new lows have been created. The near term will be volatile as financial houses react to the pronouncement of the U.S central bank which will be published on late Wednesday. The lows of March 2020 were made as coronavirus fears escalated two years ago. The U.S Fed has made it clear they want to raise interest rates by half a point tomorrow. This hike has been digested into the Forex market already. What investors need to now worry about is what moves the Fed claims it will take in the months ahead and that is causing nervousness. Short term traders need to understand that volatility will be quite rampant near term and choppy trading with spikes need to be anticipated. Traders who believe the NZD/USD is about to touch lows and start to reverse upwards cannot be blamed. However timing the moment when the NZD/USD truly turns around and starts to become positive may be quite difficult to pinpoint. Traders who think new lows will be seen in the NZD and the 0.64000 mark is in peril and lower depths will be seen cannot be faulted either. Within the choppy conditions that are likely to be demonstrated near term, speculators would be wise to use entry price orders. Igniting positions and using stop loss and take profit orders, to get in and out of positions could prove to be very helpful in the near term. NZD/USD Short-Term Outlook Current Resistance: 0.64710 Current Support: 0.64090 High Target: 0.65480 Low Target: 0.63810
Short
by SmoothJB
NZDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND TECHNICAL BIAS- USD JOLTS JOB DATA is to be released today in the NEWYORK SESSION. It's a HIGH IMPACT NEWS. This is why you need to keep an eye on us. - NZD FEATURE is currently down a bit. The main reason for this is the slowdown in periodic COMMODITIES and the slight strength of the USD. The POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD has not decreased yet. But from time to time DXY CORRECTION is happening. The NZD FEATURE stands at 0.6428 LEVEL. The DXY is currently up to 103.66. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT and the USD is currently slightly STRONG. Prices are below NZDUSD DYNAMIC LEVELS. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is moving towards the RISK ON side. Also the EQUITIES have become a bit GREEN. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES is showing a UP SIDE BIAS right now. MARKETS currently have a NEUTRAL SENTIMENT, but the RISK ON SENTIMENT is too heavy. HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES are also UP going very well. - NZDUSD PRICE can return to 0.6288 LEVEL and then UP from that LEVEL. NZDUSD SHORT TERM may be further BUY if COMMODITIES PRICES UP UP, VOLATILITY DOWN. - NZDUSD PRICE can go to 0.6288 LEVEL before UP. Then you can BREAK the TREND LINE and UP to 0.6660 LEVEL. Buying NZDUSD is a bit risky if VIX is UP. So stay tuned with MARKET UPDATES.
by benny_marshall
NZDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND TECHNICAL BIAS- NZD FEATURE is currently down a bit. The main reason for this is the slowdown in COMMODITIES and the slight strength of the USD. The POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD has not diminished yet. The NZD FEATURE stands at 0.6560 LEVEL. The DXY is currently up to 102.54. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT and the USD is currently slightly STRONG. Prices are below NZDUSD DYNAMIC LEVELS. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is moving towards the RISK ON side. Also the EQUITIES have become a bit GREEN. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES is showing a UP SIDE BIAS right now. MARKETS currently have a NEUTRAL SENTIMENT, but the RISK ON SENTIMENT is too heavy. HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES are also UP going very well. - NZDUSD PRICE can return to 0.6520 LEVEL and then UP from that LEVEL. NZDUSD SHORT TERM may be further BUY if COMMODITIES PRICES UP UP, VOLATILITY DOWN. - NZDUSD PRICE can go to 0.6520 LEVEL before UP. Then you can BREAK the TREND LINE and UP to 0.6730 LEVEL. Buying NZDUSD is a bit risky if VIX is UP. So stay tuned with MARKET UPDATES.
by benny_marshall