NZD/USD powering higher as business confidence, milk prices surg- NZD/USD hits highs not seen since early January
- Latest leg higher fueled by big improvement in New Zealand business confidence
- Kiwi likely to outperform as long as traders continue to see a soft US economic landing
About the only thing rising as fast as dairy prices is New Zealand business confidence right now, and both are beneficial for NZD/USD which has surged to seven-month highs. Who said Kiwis can’t fly?
Kiwi flying on dairy strength, soaring business confidence
As covered in a separate note last week, NZD/USD has been a major benefactor of recent US dollar weakness, not only enjoying tailwinds from narrowing interest rate differentials but also soaring dairy prices. You can now add bullish New Zealand business confidence to the growing list of Kiwi tailwinds.
The confidence measure in the ANZ Bank New Zealand Business Outlook survey surged to a decade-high in August, surging 23 points to +51. Expectations for own activity also bounced, hitting fresh seven-year highs.
The bounce in optimism followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first interest rate cut of the cycle earlier in the month, with the bank signalling a further 100 basis points of easing by the middle of next year.
“Things are definitely looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms,” ANZ’s economics team wrote. “It wasn’t the Reserve Bank’s cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) that kicked off the lift – we saw an increase across much of the survey already in July, and the further large jump in August was already evident when the survey first opened at the very beginning of the month.
The table below from ANZ details just how impressive the improvement in the surveys internal components was during the month.
NZD/USD remains a buy-on-dips play
Having chopped back and forth through former resistance at .6218 earlier this week, the data has seen the Kiwi rocket higher in Asian trade on Thursday, hitting levels not seen since early January, breaking through another layer of resistance at .6277 in the process. The question now is whether it can hold there?
RSI (14) and MACD continue to provide bullish signals on the daily timeframe, although the former is now bordering on overbought territory. Even so, the inclination remains to buy dips rather than sell rallies in the near-term.
With nothing else on the New Zealand calendar this week, the biggest threat to the bullish trend arguably comes from incoming US labour market data which has been highly influential on Fed interest rate pricing over recent months, placing emphasis on initial jobless claims that will be released later in the session.
For a cyclical currency like the Kiwi, mild weakness screens as bullish. So too mild strength as both would allow the Fed to begin cutting rates without sparking fears of an impending recession. But if the data were to weaken dramatically, that would be problematic given the Kiwi comes across as a high beta play on the global economy.
If the US were to fall into recession, narrowing interest rate differentials would be more than overridden by fears of weaker demand, hammering risker cyclical plays as a consequence. However, such an outcome screens as unlikely on this occasion, potentially opening the door for the Kiwi to keep rising.
My preference would be to see how the data prints before entering positions. If the price pushes above .6277, you could buy with a stop below the level for protection. .63695 is one potential target. Alternatively, if it can’t hold .6277, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection targeting a pullback to either .6218 or .6150.
-- Written by David Scutt
Nzdusdanalysis
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
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NZD/USD: Bearish Reversal Signal with Key ConfluencesThe NZD/USD pair is currently exhibiting signs of a potential bearish reversal, highlighted by the formation of a Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern . This pattern, when combined with the key technical confluences identified, supports a strong bearish outlook for the pair in the short to medium term.
Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern:
The Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern has formed near a critical resistance zone, suggesting a potential price reversal. The confluence of this pattern with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly chart further reinforces the bearish sentiment. The harmonic pattern's completion at this juncture is a significant indication that the upside momentum may be waning.
Key Resistance and Trendline Confluence:
Price has recently tested and rejected a key resistance level, which aligns with both the descending trendline and the 78.6% Fibonacci level on the weekly chart. This rejection adds credibility to the bearish bias, as it suggests that sellers are stepping in to defend this area.
RSI Divergence on 4-hour time frame:
An additional layer of confluence is provided by the RSI divergence observed on the 4-hour timeframe. The RSI has shown a bearish divergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum. This divergence often precedes a trend reversal, further supporting our bearish outlook for NZD/USD.
Trade Plan:
Given the confluence of these technical factors, the following trade setup is recommended:
Entry: 0.61970
Stop Loss: 0.62400
Take Profit Targets
TP-1: 0.61540
TP-2: 0.61110
TP-3: 0.60680
Risk Management:
This trade setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with tight risk management in place. The stop loss is placed just above the key resistance level to protect against potential false breakouts.
Conclusion:
The combination of the Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern, key resistance rejection, trendline confluence, and RSI divergence points to a strong bearish case for NZD/USD. Traders should consider entering the trade at the specified levels, with a clear focus on the risk management strategy outlined above.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
nzdusd analysis elliot. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
NZDUSD moving higher now**Monthly Chart**
NZDUSD last month's candle closed as a bearish high test after sweeping liquidity above 0.62000 level (Round number). This month (July 2024 - Still active) tested the midway of the previous month's candle and pushed to May 2024 (bullish candle) Demand Zone. It is also April 2024 low.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week NZDUSD closed lower after an aggressive sell-off for the past two weeks. The candle closed as a bearish candle. This week I will look for a buy setup around the demand zone if there is a low-risk entry on lower time frames.
**Daily chart**
This week, I will wait for the price to take liquidity below the 0.58858 level before entering long. Wait for the price to tell you when on lower time frames (ie. 4H and 1H).
NZD/USD Creating New Wave ,Best Long Area And Short Area ClearedThis Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
Free Long Trade On NZD/USD With Full Details , Don`t Miss It !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
NZD/USD Fully Closed +250 Pips 0 Drawdown,Next Direction UpdatedThis Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
nzdusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
NZDUSD - Short idea !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on NZDUSD.
Technical analysis: On daily time frame price formed hidden divergence and here we have regular divergence with rejection from LZ. After break of structure below 0.59800 I will go short.
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NZD/USD +300 Pips 0 Drawdown , New Entry Valid After D Closure !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Find the bottom of AUDUSDThe Australian Dollar trades around 0.6500 on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis shows that the AUD/USD pair has broken below a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the oversold 30 level, indicating a potential upward correction soon.
Immediate support for the AUD/USD pair is around the throwback support around the 0.6470 level.
On the upside, key resistance is around the “throwback support turned resistance” at 0.6575, aligned with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6581. A break above this level could lead the AUD/USD pair to test the psychological level of 0.6600, with a potential aim for a six-month high of 0.6798.
BUY NZDUSD zone 0.59100-0.58900
↠ Stoploss 0.58700
→ Take Profit 1 0.59400
→ Take Profit 2 0.60100
NZDUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100👉🔍 Looking at the NZDUSD chart, we can clearly see that the price has broken out of a 4-hour downtrend. There is a noticeable break in market structure to the upside, followed by a significant rally. It has now reached a resistance level, and I'm anticipating a retracement back down to the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels, where I'll be looking for a potential buy opportunity if the price action described in the video unfolds.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before making any buying or selling decisions, as explained in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential. 📈🔔
1-Hour Chart Analysis NZDUSD short
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The 1-hour chart reveals a rising channel, with price nearing the upper boundary. The RSI is currently showing a lower low while the price shows a higher high, indicating bearish divergence which is often a sign of an impending reversal.
Key Observations:
Rising channel with price approaching the upper boundary.
RSI shows bearish divergence.
Sell confirmation conditions met:
RSI lower low.
EMA bearish crossover.
Higher time frame bearish trend.
Sell signal triggered at 0.59586, with targets at 0.5920 and 0.5880.