NZD/USD Mid and Long Term Map... in a nutshell we will see a 25bps hike tomorrow as widely expected (95% odds) ... this will add colour to the policy equilibrium with inflation and employment both on track in the U.S
-> with that being said, this decline will focus less on the interpretation of the hikes, instead the details will be in balance sheet, the rhetoric will be important as we start to begin guidance towards a reduction announcement likely to come in Sept.
Upward momentum in NZD remains scarce and the odds for a move above 0.74xx are not high, therefore, making NZD USD one of the best instruments to ride the change in expectations in the balance sheet for the coming Quarters ...
Nzdusdbreakout
NZDUSD Looking DownAt the daily time frame of NZDUSD the price has reached the orange upper range with is intact now for a long time. When drawing ranges (ligh blue) from the current wave we see there the range isnt narrowing but we also notice that the candles arent touching the upper and lower range anymore. This means that a possible new range (red) has formed. This range is narrowing and its also called a Bearish Wedge, meaning that price will come down soon.
I am not fully convinced yet at a strong sell because of the indicators. Then again the indicators will only turn bearish if good red candles are being produced. So maybe price is right now exactly at the top, in which case the indicators dont show a reversal sign yet.
The possible down wave will most likely go to the lower range of the blue range. At that point it will either bounce back up or break it and go down further.
Entry: 0.7200 - 0.7220 area
Take Profit: 0.7155 > 0.7050 > 0.6930
Stop loss: 0.7270 and move your stop down along the bearish wave.
Alternatively, if a daily candle has a good strong close above to orange trend line, its a but till atleast 0.7315
NzdUsd Bullish Break-Out possibleAfter dropping alot the range became more narrow while the daily time frame is at a support area. The Stoch Rsi made a nice bullish cross-over out of the oversold area confirming that selling pressure is over. A break-out of the upper range will be above 0.6888.
How to trade
- Buy at current market price or above 0.6888 with a stop-loss 0.6820. Take profit at 0,7040.
- Sell a break-out of the lower range. stop-loss 0.6920 and take-profit 0.6720
NZDUSD Extends Recent Gains With a Close Above 0.7040Over the weekend I mentioned that we could get a range break opportunity from the NZDUSD this week. At the time the pair was trading between 0.6970 support and 0.7040/5 resistance.
Given the technical landscape of the past few months, I was favoring a break to the upside. Yesterday’s close at 0.7052 appears to have given us that upside break. As such, any bullish price action on a retest of the 0.7040/5 area could present a buying opportunity.
However, I’m hesitant to enter now given the upcoming RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday at 4 pm EST. The event is likely to cause unfavorable conditions which make an entry at the moment a little too risky.
Of course, I could miss the opportunity altogether if I wait. If that happens, I’ll look to the next key level at 0.7133. A close above that would expose the next resistance level at 0.7240.
Alternatively, a daily close back below 0.7040/5 would expose the 0.6970 handle followed by the recent swing low at 0.6890.
I’ll likely remain on the sideline until the dust settles from this Wednesday’s RBNZ decision. Because the NZDUSD has been range bound for quite some time, I’ll consider any favorable buy or sell signals that form at key levels until conditions warrant a new approach.
NZDUSD Potential Range Break Opportunity This WeekThe NZDUSD could offer a range break opportunity this week. Despite gaining 125 pips following a more dovish than expected Fed, the pair fell short of overtaking the 0.7040 handle.
Buyers also just barely missed out on a weekly bullish engulfing pattern. But despite the near miss, the rally that started on Wednesday may not be done just yet.
In fact, given the technicals over the last few months, I’m favoring a break to the upside. However, I won’t enter until I see a daily close above 0.7040. Until that time comes, I’ll remain on the sideline.
If we do get a bullish break from this range, a move toward resistance at 0.7133 would be the likely outcome. This level served as support twice last month as well as the first day of March.
Key support for the week ahead comes in at Thursday’s low near 0.6970. This area served as a pivot in early January and is also the November 2016 low.
NZD under pressure once again (monthly)The neckline to the double top pattern at 0.74 has once again come out on the winning side, the confluence of the daily up sloping channel and a descending one. The formation of a daily shooting star adds proximity to a hurdle.
With the weekly RSI closing in on resistance, upside is likely to remain capped.
In the short term a correction towards 0.7060 of the recent rebound is likely