NZD/USD Short AnalysisHello everyone,
Seildev here for another brief Analysis on NZD/USD:
- Respected daily resistance from 7th/Nov/2016
- Weekly resistance at 0.7300 since 20th/June/2016
- 0.7300 Psychological number
- Nice doji candle forming at daily
For aggresive approach
- Area of interest to short around 0.7265
For conservative approach
- Area of interest to short after daily close below 0.718
Will be monitoring tonight to see where the daily candle closes.
Once 0.7328 is broken, all ideas above are invalid and will look for upward trend
Safe trading everyone.
Nzdusddaily
NZDUSD Long NZDUSD could resume its uptrend once the current consolidation period ends.
NZDUSD has been climbing since mid-May. However, that rally has run out of steam and for the past few sessions the pair has traded sideways. That’s despite news last week of lower-than-expected GDP growth of 0.5% quarter/quarter in Q1.
The data imply that GDP growth this year could be nearer 3.0% than 3.5%. However, core inflation in New Zealand remains subdued and headline inflation is only just above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1%-3% target range.
NZD/USD Mid and Long Term Map... in a nutshell we will see a 25bps hike tomorrow as widely expected (95% odds) ... this will add colour to the policy equilibrium with inflation and employment both on track in the U.S
-> with that being said, this decline will focus less on the interpretation of the hikes, instead the details will be in balance sheet, the rhetoric will be important as we start to begin guidance towards a reduction announcement likely to come in Sept.
Upward momentum in NZD remains scarce and the odds for a move above 0.74xx are not high, therefore, making NZD USD one of the best instruments to ride the change in expectations in the balance sheet for the coming Quarters ...
NZDUSD prepare to sell on break of key supportSell below 0.7051. Stop loss at 0.7093. Take profit at 0.7051.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We prepare to sell when price breaks a major support level at 0.7051 (Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave theory, horizontal pullback support, bearish divergence) and expect price to make a strong push down to 0.6987 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
RSI (34) has made a bearish exit as a pre-signal that we’re seeing a strong drop soon, and the bearish divergence vs price adds to our conviction of seeing an impending drop.
NZD/USD : Order block reached ?I've been watching for some time now this pair. Although the US Dollar got pounded hard today, NZD hasn't gained much ground on it while other pairs did. This looks to me that the NZD doesn't have strong fundamentals to push it higher.
We have multiple wicks here @ 0.6935 which lines up perfectly with our FIB retracement. The rectangle I drew is a order block of some kind. I am shorting this pair as I think it will continue it's path of the downtrend channel.
Update : I forgot to add this : we have lower lows and lower highs on the daily timeframe.
Be safe!
NZDUSD Long SetupI am looking at a possible new NZDUSD setup. The price did not go lower and has been on the rise since then. As you can see from the screenshot, it looks like it might be bottoming out. The daily candle from Friday is a long-legged doji (showing indecision). Today’s candle is most likely going to be a bullish candle. One way or another, I will be looking for a small retracement (after daily close) if I am going to enter in another long trade. A good level for me would be 0.6865. I would be looking to place my SL just below 0.6815. My first target would be the level of 0.7050. As you can see from the screenshot above, the next resistance level (take profit zone) is the level of 0.7350.
NZDUSD profit target reached, prepare to sellSell below 0.6883. Stop loss at 0.6920. Take profit at 0.6826.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has bounced up and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below 0.6883 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to 0.6826 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing resistance at 94% which RSI is fast approaching.
RSI (34) has made a bearish exit and is approaching resistance once again where we expect a drop from.
Correlation analysis: NZDUSD and AUDUSD are positively correlated meaning they usually move together in the same direction. We are expecting a rise on AUDUSD and a drop on NZDUSD so it is best to exercise caution on these trades.
NZDUSD bounce caught perfectly, remain bullishBuy above 0.6818. Stop loss at 0.6789. Take profit at 0.6874.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price reached our buying level and has started to bounce up perfectly. We now remain bullish above 0.6818 support (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) and look for a bounce towards 0.6874 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing up nicely from our 9% support level.
RSI (34) has made a bearish exit signalling that the overall momentum we’re expecting of NZDUSD is bearish.
Correlation analysis: NZDUSD and AUDUSD are positively correlated meaning they usually move together in the same direction. We are expecting a rise on AUDUSD and a rise on NZDUSD which goes well with the positive correlation expected.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. Advance Retail Sales which is a monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. We’re expecting a positive value here meaning more consumer spending and confidence, leading to strength in the USD. This would go against our bullish NZDUSD view today hence is it best to exercise caution on this trade.
NZDUSD Room To Move UpThe channel of NZDUSD shows that it has room to move up. We can see a rejection of the support level and price looks like its heading now to the upper range. If it manages to break that range next target is the resistance at 0.7050
Take profit targets: 0.6960 > 0.7050
Stop loss: 0.6840
NZDUSD bouncing up perfectly, remain bullishBuy above 0.6985. Stop loss at 0.6934. Take profit at 0.7092.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area previously and is on track to our profit target. We remain bullish above 0.6985 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to 0.7092 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
RSI (34) has made a really nice bullish exit signalling that a further bullish movement can be expected on NZDUSD.
NZDUSD LONG Potential long opportunity on the Daily and weekly chart.
This long opportunity is set at the support of the Major trendline outlined in the price movement.
Buy at 0.6919
TP1 at 0.7252
TP2 at 0.7618
I'll be placing this order and watching it till the end of the week.
more updates to follow on this pair
NZD/USD testing major support, remain bullishBuy above 0.6992. Stop loss at 0.6955. Take profit at 0.7091.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is now testing major support at 0.6992 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support, Fibonacci extension) and we remain bullish above this level for a push up to 0.7091 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). When price surpasses our descending resistance line, that would give us further confidence of our bullish move up.
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 1.2% level.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of a decrease which means a bearish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bullish NZDUSD strategy view.
NZDUSD 4-Hour Trend Line to Offer Selling OpportunityYesterday I mentioned the 0.7040/5 area on the NZDUSD. The idea was to watch for a session close (5 pm EST) below the area to confirm it’s holding as resistance.
After jockeying back and forth for several hours, sellers made a final push that gave us a 0.7041 close. This is enough to keep the bearish pressure intact for now.
For those still searching for a favorable selling opportunity, the 4-hour chart may offer a chance. The trend line that extends from the March 14th low is once again under pressure but appears to be holding on a 4-hour closing basis.
We don’t have a confirmed setup just yet, but a close below the trend line followed by a retest as resistance could give us one. The next key support would come in at 0.6970 followed by the current 2017 low near 0.6890.
At the moment buyers are having trouble getting any traction below the 0.7040 area. Also, the price action since the March 24th retest looks quite “heavy,” which is a concept I’ve written about previously.
However, it’s important to stay patient and wait for a 4-hour close below the trend line. Until that happens, buyers still have a fighting chance, which is enough to keep me on the sideline.