NZDUSD SELL | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity NZDUSD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Nzdusdforecast
NZDUSD LONG 100 PIPSThe NZDUSD currency pair is currently hovering within a favorable buying zone, presenting an opportunity for traders to capitalize on potential upward movement. This zone, typically defined as a range of approximately 100 pips, is where market dynamics suggest a higher probability of price bouncing upward. Such zones often coincide with key support levels, technical indicators, or chart patterns, indicating a temporary halt or reversal of a downward trend. Traders eyeing this setup may consider entering long positions, anticipating a bullish momentum that could drive the price towards their profit targets. However, prudent risk management strategies should be employed, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses in case the market moves against the anticipated direction. Overall, understanding and effectively navigating such buy zones can enhance trading success by aligning with market dynamics and maximizing profit potential in the NZDUSD pair.
New Zealand Dollar Bearish Sentiment and Trade Plan
Based on the latest COT report, non-commercial traders (speculators) have significantly increased theirlong positions in the NZD. This suggests that they are becoming less bearish on the New Zealand dollar and may be anticipating a potential rally.
Open Positions Retail Sentiment data also shows a decrease in short positions and an increase in long positions among retail traders. This is a contrarian indicator, as retail traders are often wrong at market turning points. Therefore, the increase in long positions among retail traders may suggest that the NZDUSD downside has further to go.
The NZDUSD pair is currently trading below a triggered BUY level at 0.6157. An upside move and testing this level could make a fine signal to entry point for a short position.
How much longer can the kiwi sell off? How much longer can the kiwi sell off?
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand opted to maintain interest rates, coupling this decision with dovish remarks and forward guidance.
Danske Bank economists anticipate a continued decline in NZD/USD in the upcoming year, setting a 12-month target at 0.5700. They think that the RBNZ contrasts with other G10 central banks which are apparently eyeing the start of their respective rate cutting cycles (which might be news to you, considering most expectations for rate cuts from other central banks are repeatedly being pushed back).
Nevertheless, this sentiment led to a significant decline in the New Zealand dollar over the past two days, although it seems to be trying to find support.
The 100 and 200-day simple moving averages emerge as notable hurdles for bearish sentiment on the daily chart.
On the 4-hour chart, the next support level following these moving averages is at 0.6050, a critical level that previously served as resistance in October last year.
Sustaining levels above 0.6070 could help sustain a positive outlook with the next target possibly around 0.6140, supported by signals from the RSI.
NZDUSD: the odds of a turnaround are on the rise.Hello, Successful Traders! $-) Our analysis of the situation shows that the market is locally overbought and the current upward momentum is losing steam. It seems that any upcoming downward movement will be relatively moderate in size, while a fresh surge of growth will surpass the peak reached on January 31st.
Furthermore, time also points to the possibility of a reversal. The duration of the downward trend matches closely with the average.
We've decided to enter a sell trade at 0.61372 for the entire trade limit. Our plan is to close the position within the next couple of days.
25% chance of RBNZ rate hike on Tues?25% chance of RBNZ rate hike on Tues?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to maintain its interest rate at the existing 5.50%, yet there might be a notable 25% probability of a 25-basis points hike.
Why? In part, the RBNZ provided a hawkish signal post its recent meeting.
The RBNZ's forward guidance suggests an inclination towards future hikes, with the March 2024 outlook adjusted to 5.63%, and December 2024 elevated to 5.66%.
ANZ Bank goes a step further, forecasting consecutive rate hikes until April, culminating in a 6.00% OCR. NZ Bank stands alone in predicting a rate hike, the consensus among other market economists leans heavily towards maintaining the status quo.
KiwiBank economists share the consensus view that the RBNZ will likely keep the interest rates unchanged. However, they anticipate a continuation of strong language and a “very forceful, hawkish bias,”
A Reuters survey resulted in 27 out of 28 economists foreseeing no change.
Still, these disparities in predictions highlight the uncertainty surrounding the impending decision and the potential for a significant market reaction depending on the central bank's course of action as well as the language they use to deliver the news.
The RBNZ delivers its decision on Tuesday 9:00 pm (US time, UTC -5).
higher or lower? analyse step by step i want to be honest with you.
nobody cant predict price path before some prices are seen so if 0.83813 and 0.84470 will seen in this week , price will move to higher levels like 0.84869 and we can set our Strategy to buy.
if the price can not reach to the 0.83813 we have bearish trend and we can set our Strategy to sell
NZDUSD: the bulls have entered the gameHey, Traders! Our trading strategy showed a shift of initiative to the bulls. The upward movement is expected to exceed 0.6178 and break the key high of the downtrend, which has lasted since Dec 28, 2023. We closed the existing short positions and opened a buy trade for the entire equity limit.
NZDUSD: get ready for a bounce back!Hey there! Let's talk about the NZD/USD market and what to expect next. After a prolonged period of decline, the market has hit a plateau. Bulls, unfortunately, suffered a blow when the support level of 0.60841, which had been holding the uptrend, was broken. This flat phase we're experiencing shows all the signs of typical manipulation with highs and lows.
Now, here's the intriguing part. Our trading strategy has formed a solid model that indicates the potential for a limited further decline. There is a limit at 0.60544, and we believe this level is just perfect for wrapping up the manipulation game and making way for a bounce back. Why is it perfect? This level conveniently sits below the low of 0.6062, which we saw back on January 23rd.
Here's what we predict: We anticipate that the 0.6062 low will be broken through, and once that happens, the market will soar high. Our target is to close the gap at 0.61931, which was formed in the heart of January. It's so exciting, don't you think?
To take advantage of this, we're placing a limit order to open a short position at 0.61016. Our aim is to close the position at 0.6058. We'll start with a trade volume set at 1/2 of our limit for opening deals. Here's the interesting part: If the 0.6062 level is pierced without reaching 0.6058 and the market bounces back above 0.6062, we'll close the short position and simultaneously open a long position at the full limit. And hey, if we manage to close the short position at 0.6058 without any further decline below 0.60544, we'll also initiate a long position.
Stay tuned for exciting opportunities in the NZD/USD market!
NZDUSD: bears have revealed their plans.Let's take a look at what happened in the NZD/USD market last week. There was some manipulation going on with the prices. We were actually expecting the market to rise due to some planned strategies by the buyers. However, we had a change of plans when the market rose without breaking the low of 0.60620 from January 23rd. This made us shift our perspective and decide to open short positions.
On January 31st, there was a false upward move with a spike that reached 0.61737. The bears entered their short positions and then the market has collapsed.
Currently, we have short positions with an average price of 0.61223. The situation seems favorable for us to hold onto these positions. We considering the possibility of opening more short positions, especially as the levels around 0.6090-0.6095 look promising.
Our expectation is that the market will continue to decline and could potentially reach the level of 0.6000.
Stay tuned for more updates!
NZ Economist's bold call opens opportunity in NZD? NZ Economist's bold call opens opportunity in NZD?
Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ (the country’s largest retail bank), says the RBNZ may lift interest rates to 6% at its next meetings in February (27th) and April. Zollner accounts for 25 basis points in each meeting.
This could potentially open some targets to the upside in the NZD/USD, including a yearly high for the pair. On its way up, we might want to see little hesitation in the recent consolidation band of 0.62130 and 0.62611 before this eventuates though.
Zollner pointed out that a series of "small but unwelcome data surprises" was enough to kickstart the hiking cycle again. She mentioned that it's not uncommon for central banks to resume hiking after a break, citing three instances when the Reserve Bank did so after the 2007 Global Financial Crisis.
Obviously Zollner's prediction is only that, a prediction (and perhaps biased at that?). On the flip side, Kelly Eckhold, the chief economist at Westpac (New Zealand's second-largest retail bank), disagreed with the market predictions of another rate hike, countering Zollner's hawkish stance. Eckhold interpreted the new data to suggest a "higher for longer" scenario, expecting rates to stay at 5.50% until 2025. Which might not exactly be bad news for the upside prospects of the NZD/USD too.
#NZDUSD: Possible Big Selling Opportunity! Dear Traders,
Hope you had a great weekend, now looking at the big picture of NZDUSD, we think price will likely to reverse after touching our area, DXY may become reverse in a week or two, while the pair is yet far from our entry point. We expect smooth drop; ensure you take appropriate risks when trading.
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NZDUSD Looking BullishThe Business Confidence report for New Zealand's NZD/USD reveals a positive shift in business sentiment, with a rise to 36.5 in January from the previous figure of 33.3. This indicates an optimistic change in how businesses perceive the economic environment. However, the NZD Activity Outlook, measuring firms' expectations for their own activity, witnessed a slight dip, decreasing to 25.7% from the earlier reading of 29.2%.
NZDUSD Trading Plan - 28/Jan/2024Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect NU to go Up from here.
Look for your BUY setups.
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Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
NZDUSD A BULLISH ENTRYhello guys
NZDUSD Formed an inverted head and shoulder on a daily key level during the formation the price rejected a supply zone many times it also plays now as a neckline for the pattern
if the price manages to break and retest it may be a very good entry for a buying opportunity
NZDUSD Bearish Outlook: Technical and Fundamental AnalysisA comprehensive analysis spanning multiple timeframes presents a bearish outlook, augmented by fundamental factors. On the monthly chart, there's a clear rejection at a significant resistance level, indicating strong selling pressure at these price points. Shifting to the weekly timeframe, a notable observation is the breach of a critical support level, which has now turned into resistance. This shift was accompanied by a consolidation phase, highlighting a significant mitigation of positions and the addition of substantial short positions, further validating the bearish sentiment.
The daily chart provides a more granular view, showcasing a distinct breakdown in structure towards the downside. This technical breakdown suggests continued bearish momentum in the short term, as lower lows and lower highs form part of a downtrend.
From a fundamental perspective, the strength and momentum of the USD are evident, fueled by recent data releases that have kept the dollar "hot." Additionally, there's an observed bullish divergence with bonds, although this doesn't necessarily imply a long-term trend reversal.
On the New Zealand side, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release is anticipated to show a cool off, potentially setting the stage for an upward price correction. However, this expected bullish move should be interpreted with caution, as price action leading up to significant catalysts often respects the prevailing trend, which, in this case, is bearish.
In summary, while short-term bullish opportunities may arise from fundamental data releases such as the NZD CPI, the overarching technical analysis across monthly, weekly, and daily charts suggests a bearish trend for NZDUSD. Traders might consider looking for sell opportunities on rallies or breaks of structure, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels for entry and exit points. Fundamental factors, including the strength of the USD and upcoming economic indicators, should be monitored closely to gauge their impact on the currency pair's direction.