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Nzdusdforecast

NZDUSD Update Hello Traders, today i will trade again the FX:NZDUSD for three reasons: -The first reason is that the FOMC will most likely not raise interest rates from September, considering that interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% on the dollar are at 22 year highs and inflation seems to be slowing down (at least in the markets). -The second reason is that with a drop of 133 pips in 2 days, it should be retraced, having left several levels of liquidity as you can see on the chart by Volume Profile. -The third reason is the good volatility of the pair. It is an intraday operation and I will most likely not take anything overnight. Levels to watch: Resistance at 0.6152 - 0.6175 targeting 0.619 or the 0.5 Fibo's Support at 0.6133- 0.611 Stop below 0.611 Point of Control 0.6210
Long
by IllyrianTrader
Market Over-Reacts? NZD tanks more than 2% The New Zealand dollar experienced a significant drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in more than three months at $0.6039. This decline followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) expected decision to raise cash rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. However, the central bank also hinted that it might conclude its tightening campaign, which likely contributed to the currency's decline. In more positive news, inflation expectations eased during the first quarter, dropping from 3.30% to 2.79%, potentially solidifying the RBNZ's choice to halt further rate hikes. Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the NZD/USD pair, it is evident that it broke below the previous swing low at 0.6111. However, the selling momentum may have started to weaken in the past hour, as indicated by the extreme oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the pair's inability to close below 0.6100. The next target for a downward movement could be 0.6092, which seems to be the level where current sellers feel comfortable probing further. One potential explanation for this slowdown could be the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The minutes revealed a division among Federal Reserve officials during their previous meeting regarding the future direction of interest rates. Some members believed that further rate increases were necessary, while others anticipated a slowdown in economic growth that would negate the need for additional tightening measures. As a result, the committee decided to remove the phrase "additional policy firming may be appropriate" from its post-meeting statement. Market expectations currently indicate that the rate increase in May will be the final one in the current cycle. Furthermore, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce rates by approximately a quarter percentage point before the year's end. If this prediction holds true, it could be argued that the sharp decline in the New Zealand dollar is an overreaction.
by BlackBull_Markets