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NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid Global NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid Global and Domestic Influences 08/11/2024 Introduction Today's analysis on NZDUSD presents a potential slight bullish bias, driven by recent fundamental and macroeconomic factors that influence the currency pair. In this article, we’ll dive into the primary factors shaping NZDUSD's movement, helping you make more informed decisions. Key drivers include New Zealand’s economic data, U.S. dollar strength, and global risk sentiment. --- Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD Today 1. New Zealand Economic Data and RBNZ Policy The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a stable interest rate, but recent comments hinted at a potential for future hikes if inflationary pressures persist. Positive employment data and steady GDP growth are also supporting the NZ dollar (NZD). This dovish stance from the RBNZ suggests economic resilience, giving a slight bullish momentum to the NZD. 2. U.S. Dollar Dynamics and Interest Rates The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has recently experienced fluctuations due to a series of mixed U.S. economic data points. With the Federal Reserve showing caution on additional rate hikes, the USD is facing downward pressure. A weaker USD directly supports NZDUSD’s bullish trend, especially if U.S. bond yields remain low. 3. Commodity Market Impact New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy, meat, and other agricultural products, and a rebound in these sectors contributes to the NZD's strength. Rising dairy prices in global markets add further support, as they tend to attract investors looking at NZD as a commodity-driven currency. 4. Risk Sentiment and Market Confidence Risk sentiment in the financial markets remains cautiously positive. The NZD, typically perceived as a risk-on currency, benefits from any signs of global economic stability. Positive risk sentiment fuels demand for the NZD, positioning NZDUSD for further bullish pressure. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bullish Outlook Moving Averages NZDUSD has been trading above its 50-day moving average, often interpreted as a bullish indicator. If it maintains this level, it could suggest sustained upward momentum. RSI and MACD Indicators Currently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is within a neutral to slightly bullish range, indicating potential room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) line has crossed above the signal line, supporting the bullish outlook. --- Conclusion Given the factors of strong domestic data, dovish U.S. monetary policy signals, and positive commodity prices, NZDUSD could exhibit a slight bullish bias today. However, market participants should monitor risk sentiment and any changes in the USD's strength, as these will likely influence NZDUSD's direction. --- SEO Tags: - #NZDUSDforecast - #NZDUSDtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingNZDUSD - #NewZealandDollarOutlook - #NZDUSDtoday - #NZDUSDnews - #NZDUSDanalysis - #ForexMarket - #NZDUSDprediction
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
1
NZDUSD prepare to sell on break of key supportSell below 0.7051. Stop loss at 0.7093. Take profit at 0.7051. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): We prepare to sell when price breaks a major support level at 0.7051 (Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave theory, horizontal pullback support, bearish divergence) and expect price to make a strong push down to 0.6987 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). RSI (34) has made a bearish exit as a pre-signal that we’re seeing a strong drop soon, and the bearish divergence vs price adds to our conviction of seeing an impending drop.
Short
by MEX_Exchange
NZDUSD profit target reached, prepare to sellSell below 0.6883. Stop loss at 0.6920. Take profit at 0.6826. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has bounced up and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below 0.6883 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to 0.6826 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing resistance at 94% which RSI is fast approaching. RSI (34) has made a bearish exit and is approaching resistance once again where we expect a drop from. Correlation analysis: NZDUSD and AUDUSD are positively correlated meaning they usually move together in the same direction. We are expecting a rise on AUDUSD and a drop on NZDUSD so it is best to exercise caution on these trades.
Short
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD bounce caught perfectly, remain bullishBuy above 0.6818. Stop loss at 0.6789. Take profit at 0.6874. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price reached our buying level and has started to bounce up perfectly. We now remain bullish above 0.6818 support (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) and look for a bounce towards 0.6874 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing up nicely from our 9% support level. RSI (34) has made a bearish exit signalling that the overall momentum we’re expecting of NZDUSD is bearish. Correlation analysis: NZDUSD and AUDUSD are positively correlated meaning they usually move together in the same direction. We are expecting a rise on AUDUSD and a rise on NZDUSD which goes well with the positive correlation expected. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. Advance Retail Sales which is a monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. We’re expecting a positive value here meaning more consumer spending and confidence, leading to strength in the USD. This would go against our bullish NZDUSD view today hence is it best to exercise caution on this trade.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD bouncing up perfectly, remain bullishBuy above 0.6985. Stop loss at 0.6934. Take profit at 0.7092. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area previously and is on track to our profit target. We remain bullish above 0.6985 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to 0.7092 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). RSI (34) has made a really nice bullish exit signalling that a further bullish movement can be expected on NZDUSD.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZD/USD testing major support, remain bullishBuy above 0.6992. Stop loss at 0.6955. Take profit at 0.7091. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price is now testing major support at 0.6992 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support, Fibonacci extension) and we remain bullish above this level for a push up to 0.7091 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). When price surpasses our descending resistance line, that would give us further confidence of our bullish move up. Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 1.2% level. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of a decrease which means a bearish USD is expected, this goes in line with our bullish NZDUSD strategy view.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD approaching support, prepare to buyBuy above 0.7176. Stop loss at 0.7137. Take profit at 0.7240. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): We prepare to turn bullish above 0.7176 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 0.7240 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support at the 10% level where we expect a bounce in price from. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a rise from 1.9% to 2.1% which means we could expect a stronger USD, this goes against our bullish NZDUSD view, hence, it is best to exercise caution on this trade. The other major news event driving the USD today is the U. of Michigan Confidence. It assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. A low or falling University of Michigan Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. We’re expecting a higher value which means a stronger USD, which goes against our bullish NZDUSD trade today too.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD profit target reached again, prepare to buyBuy above 0.7176. Stop loss at 0.7137. Take profit at 0.7240. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price has dropped nicely and is reaching our profit target perfectly. We prepare to turn bullish above 0.7176 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 0.7240 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support at the 10% level where we expect a bounce in price from. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes against our bullish NZDUSD view, hence, it is important to exercise caution on this trade.
Long
by theforexarmy
NZDUSD profit target reached perfectly, time to start sellingSell below 0.7240. Stop loss at 0.7285. Take profit at 0.7176. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price shot up and reached our profit target perfectly from yesterday. We now turn bearish below 0.7240 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop to 0.7176 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 92% level.
Short
by theforexarmy