Yemi_Fx1 | Short for NZDUSDPrice is in a consolidating phase in the form of a bearish flag pattern. If the pattern holds there will be a continuation for price movement to the downside. So,
I'll be considering
A Risk entry type at the top of the bearish flag structure at an area of value.
Reduced risk entry after the impulsive back down followed by a tight flag or break of the flag.
Share your thoughts in the comments and show your support for the idea by liking it. Thank you for your help.
Nzdusdshort
NZD/USD:Declines towards 0.61 as US Biden wants tax riches More!The NZD/USD pair is facing downward pressure and is currently approaching the round-level support of 0.6100. This is due to US President Joe Biden's recent proposal to increase corporation tax from 21% to 28%, as well as implementing a 25% billionaire tax and levies on rich investors. These measures are expected to contract fiscal policy and restrict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from further increasing. The proposal has also put pressure on the S&P500 futures, which are currently showing losses in the Asian session.
The USD Index is expected to resume its upside journey, hovering above 105.20 due to the higher taxes proposal. This week, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be in the spotlight, with a consensus of fresh 203K payrolls added in February. Investors will also be paying attention to the Average Hourly Earnings data, which is expected to increase to 4.8% on an annual basis.
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is also on investors' radar, with a forecasted decline to 1.9% from the prior release of 2.1% on an annual basis. The monthly CPI is likely to trim to 0.2% from the former release of 0.8%. If inflation continues to decrease, it might force China's administration and the people's Bank of China (PBoC) to infuse more liquidity into the economy. This could benefit New Zealand, one of China's leading trading partners, and bring more business for the New Zealand Dollar.
In the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair failed to recapture the critical resistance of 0.6120. This could be due to the proposal of higher taxes from US Biden, as well as rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed's actions, combined with the fiscal policy measures, might have a synergic impact on US inflation, leading to a decrease in consumer spending.
NZDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND TECHNICAL BIAS#NZDUSD
- NZDUSD has been going UP very fast in recent days. The reason for that is because the VIX is down and the strength of the dollar is decreasing. Because of that, every NZD BASED CURRENCY PAIR was BUY. AUD, NZD, CAD, CURRENCIES BUY in these few days due to MARKET RISK ON again this week.
For that, the influence of USD was very strong. Fomc update also affected it strongly this time. And RBNZ made a 50 bps RATE HIKE. Therefore, the NZD STRENGTH is increasing very much.
- Thus, COMMODITIES are being BUY quite fast. It also affects the NZD very strongly.
- Anyway, NZDUSD can continue to BUY until 0.6700 LEVEL..
Before that, 0.6042 LEVEL can be SELL.
Bearish outlook on NZDUSD: 3 March 2023Prices have been testing a key resistance zone at 0.6280 on the H4 timeframe, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A pullback to this level could present an opportunity to ride the drop to the support zone at 0.6150, which coincides with the graphical low and 23.6% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic RSI is approaching the overbought region above 80, while prices are holding below the 50 EMA, supporting our bearish bias.
NZD/USD bears step in at the highs and pressure SHORTThe NZD/USD currency pair has experienced a decline of approximately 0.27% from its high of 0.6257, falling to a low of 0.6238. This retracement occurred after a surge in commodity prices following the news of a Chinese demand revival. However, the Australian GDP growth slowed to 0.5% QoQ, missing consensus expectations of a 0.8% lift, which initially weighed on both the Australian and New Zealand currencies. The possibility of an earlier pause in hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia also increased.
Despite this, the kiwi currency saw a surge in speculative buying after reports of China's Non-manufacturing activity growth at a faster pace in February, and the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading surpassing expectations. The offshore yuan also jumped 1.3% to 6.8683 per dollar, its largest one-day gain since late November. The kiwi currency outperformed most of its peers, especially on the NZD/AUD cross, according to analysts at ANZ Bank.
The EUR was another strong performer, boosted by the strong German CPI print, and the kiwi followed suit. Additionally, stop-loss buying on the NZD/AUD cross may have contributed to the price action. However, as there wasn't a clear catalyst for the kiwi's surge, the price action may subside in the coming days.
The USD vibe has also shifted as strong data last week resulted in the DXY rallying hard as bond yields increased. However, the recent run of solid data has weighed on the dollar in a "good news is bad news" manner, raising fears that the Fed will engineer a recession. The strength of the kiwi currency may be due to a belated recognition of economic resilience and cyclone rebuilding. Overall, the kiwi has performed well despite the recent retracement, and its strength may persist in the coming days.
NZDUSD bias remains negative.NZDUSD - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 0.6200 (stop at 0.6240)
Previous support located at 0.6150.
Previous resistance located at 0.6200.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 0.6150 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 0.6100 and 0.6080
Resistance: 0.6200 / 0.6225 / 0.6250
Support: 0.6150 / 0.6100 / 0.6050
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NzdUsd ShortI am looking to short NzdUsd as it has reached the previous buy target and surpassed it. For now, it has broken the major support, and I am waiting for confirmation to sell. If it fails to drop and breaks the above resistance, I will be looking for a continuation to the upside for buying opportunities.
NZD/USD: Double Top and Price Drop.NZD/USD falls to three-month lows, grinding near intraday lows.
NZD/USD bears hold the reigns at the lowest levels since November 2022, down half a percent near 0.6130 early Monday, as negative New Zealand (NZ) drivers clash with US Dollar demand.
However, NZ Retail Sales for the fourth quarter (Q4) fell -0.6% year on year, compared to 1.5% predicted and 0.4% previously.
According to Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway, "when interest rates rise, I expect consumption to slow."
Meanwhile, solid US inflation-linked data combined with Fed policymakers' support for higher rates to boost Fed fund futures above 5.30%, versus 5.10% forecast by the US central bank in December. The recent round of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia has heightened market fears of increased geopolitical tension, which has boosted demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven.
the NZDUSD will fall even more in the next week.I do believe that this market will have to make a correction up to the 0.620 area before going down 0.61380 and then going even more down to do price area around 0.61150.
so what do you guys think? do you agree or not ?!
pls, share with me your opinions !!
NZDUSD SHORTThus far we are witnessing a resurgent dollar against commodity dollars since the turn of the new year. There are signs the dollar is still bullish against major currencies. In the interim we are expecting a bearish correction for the dollar (bullish correction for other currencies). In the coming days we are watching to see if NZDUSD will retrace back to the fair gap region where we have placed our sell orders. On the 4HR we have a CHOCH and BOS. On the daily time frame we have a break of daily structure(awaiting confirmation on Monday +3:00 GMT). The break in daily is our confirmation for sell orders.
NZDUSD - Short from bearish order block ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on NZDUSD .
Here we are in a bearish market structure from H4 timeframe perspective, so I am looking for shorts. I wait for a retracement to fill the imbalance higher as price formed normal H4 divergence and then to reject from bearish order block.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
NZDUSD M30: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.6250On the M30 timeframe, prices are testing a key resistance zone at 0.6250. A pullback to this zone presents an opportunity to play the drop to the support zone at 0.6200, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Price is hovering near the top of the Bollinger Bands, supporting our bearish bias.
NZD/USD Made Head And Shoulders Pattern , Still Not Confirmed !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Bearish outlook on NZDUSD - 22 February 2023Prices are testing a support-turned-resistance zone at 0.6250 on the H1 timeframe. A pullback to this level could provide the bearish acceleration to the next support zone at 0.6200, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic RSI is in the overbought region above 80, supporting our bearish bias.
NZD's double-bottom to foretell its next move?The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver its second interest rate decision of 2023. The decision is release on Wednesday 2pm NZDT (Tuesday 8pm EST) What makes this interesting is that the country has just been hit by Cyclone Gabrielle which has reportedly caused more than NZ$12 billion worth of damage to infrastructure and private property. As such, some market watchers are predicting a pause in the RBNZ’s rate hikes (or a slowing), although the consensus is still for a 50-basis-points hike. With the uncertainty present in the market, the NZD/USD might look a little vulnerable ahead of this RBNZ decision.
The NZD/USD is currently testing the support area created in January at 0.62249, which is crucial in predicting its next move. If the support area fails to hold, a short-term target includes 0.61648, and a long-term target includes 0.61000. NZD/USD is also below the 200-EMA, indicating a bearish trend. If the price manages to reject at the current support area, it may bounce to retest the 200-EMA period before continuing the downtrend. However, support holding up at 0.62249 would mean a double-bottom pattern formation, indicating, at least, a short-term bullish trend. For the reversal to have any momentum, the price needs to clear out the past consolidation area between 0.63523 and 0.63000, ultimately breaking the 0.63523 resistance area before continuing to the upside.
Any upside to the NZD/USD might be capped by the strong economic data coming out of the US. Additionally, the US is closed for Presidents Day on Monday, perhaps causing some pent-up selling activity in the pair to eventuate on Wednesday NZDT/ Tuesday EST.