Oats
Oats looking to breakout of bottomOats seems to be following wheat in that there is a similar bottoming pattern occurring that has been going on for several years now. And up angled wedge which has trend lines dating back to 2006 forming is reaching its pinnacle. There is a lot more action to the upper side of the triangle compared to the lower so I think the break out direction will be most likely to the upside. Short term target is along the fib levels at 321 and 357 (which also form zones of resistance) are achievable over the next 2 or so years. Long term I’ve put in an optimistic trend line which is indicated in purple. Let’s see if it holds.
BUTTERFLY HARMONIC, ZO1! OATSPOTENTIAL BUTTERFLY HARMONIC FORMING OATS FUTURES. WATCH REACTION ON COMPLETION , IF REVERSAL PATTERN FORMS. LONG!!
Oats going longIf looked at closely, you can see a hidden bullish divergence highlighted by the yellow. If break of fast ma, a good indication of a reversal, buy most likely to happen.
Oats GartelySeptember Oats is building out a bullish Gartley pattern. A tombstone appeared today and a previous sell off suggesting a downward plunge. Next downside target is through R1 and towards pivot at 268. Open interest is rolling downwards. Oats needs to break R1 resistance and stay under to be favourable. Breaking and staying under the 20 day moving average would make this even better, but right now this has been a good support line as well. Oats has been using this line since May 19.
Oats building out Bullish GartleyJuly Oats was down today breaking and staying below the 20 day moving average. Next downside target for bears is 234, then 232'6 and 230'2. For now a Bullish Gartley pattern is forming. RSI trend is still intact and watching to see if this breaks.
Oats Bearish CypherOats is setting up a bearish Cypher pattern. Target between 210'2 and 208 before trending back up and completing Cypher. Right now end Cypher estimated around 232'6 trendline, but that could change next week.
Oats Bullish Bat targetMay Oats met the Bullish Bat requirement today and RSI oversold. Open interest is rising on continued selling, so possible continued downside or pause maybe in the cards. Need confirmation. Still outside down target at double bottom at 215'2
Oats Head and ShouldersMay Oats has created a head and shoulders with a time of writing headstone. A two day close below the moving average, a sinking RSI. Possible dowtrend to 224'6 completion of bullish Gartley.
Oats Gartley patternMay Oats is building a bullish Gartley pattern. On Friday it rose out of a wedge pattern and stayed up. Next upside for the bulls is at 254'2 which is major resistance. This would also be fulfilling a H&S that is still intact. But H&S only show results 30% of the time in my experience, so a double top isn't out of the question.
Open Interest Rule 6—If prices are in a congestion range (tick) and open interest is falling (tick), this is a bullish sign.
The reason: professionals who are more likely to be short, are covering. The weak hands are throwing in the towel.
I am neutral as we still may see some up and down, uptrend was broken, H&S still intact and 20 day moving average is turning bearish.
Oats sold of Bearish flag H&SMay Oats tumbled off the bearish flag and H&S today. Looking for it to settle around 236'4 support
Oats to Retest 236'4May Oats fell off a H&S pattern. Looking for a further sell Tuesday or bearish flag setup. Retest of 236'4 in the offing.
OatsBoth March and May Oats are creating a bullish flag off of continued rise. May produced a hammer rejecting lower lows. Continued uptrend should follow to complete the elliot wave and move into the butterfly extension. We also see a double top here, so caution should be adhered. More proof needed to confirm upward movement
OatsMarch and May Oats held their ground. March made a neutral doji and May was up. Elliot wave held as well and could mean an uptrend tonight and into tomorrow so we can finish off the gap and elliot wave. Would like to have seen a bull doji but for now a rising momentum and a buying day will have to do.
OatsMarch Oats met the Elliot Wave requirement for position 4. Looking for an upsurge in the next couple of days and progression to fill the gap, complete the Elliot Wave and Butterfly off the extension. Cautious of Oats making one or two more lower days off of the bearish flag.
May Oats hasn't yet completely made the Elliot Wave, but it may not.
OatsMarch Oats is seeing better performance to meet Elliot Wave conditions. Fell from a bearish flag set two days ago. Next target for bears is the 38.2%, 248'6 area. Depending on where you set your fib projection for this correction, rebound could be anywhere within the pink box
OatsMay Oats doesn't really know what its doing. Still looking for this market to trade down to the 38.2% level before continuing up. This would mark the Elliot Wave position 4 to move higher, fill gap and complete the Elliot Wave. Tomorrow might be a down day to complete our mark as markets turned today short.
OatsMarch Oats touched the Gap and then pulled back to an encompassing bearish candle and choose Scenario 1 of my comments Friday. Look for more sideways to down movement to the 38.2% area. This would create the Elliot Wave position 4 before more upside to this market. April Oats did a similar pull back and chart makeup.
OatsMarch and May Oats are rejecting lows and progressing upward towards the final gap. I have changed projection from Cypher to Butterfly with extension reaching into the gap. We also have an Elliot Wave 1-5 setup here.
Scenario 1
Oats may take a run to bottom of gap Monday, retrace to 38.2% and then continue through gap, or reject next week to retracement, and then continue last leg. Overbought levels are high and the CCI is turning around.
Scenario 2
Oats continues and fills gap, then retraces and completes leg 5 and double tops, where we will have a sell opportunity.
OatsMarch Oats rose sharply today trying to make its way to the top of the Cypher pattern. Next target for bulls is the Cypher completion at 250'4
