$CL_F: Time to buy oil...I'm already long via a number of energy stocks I have been buying recently but now Oil futures are finally onboard. I was thinking that inflation remaining stickier was proof of post COVID lock downs induced supply disruptions being still a factor, and now that we have China reopening and an increase in demand of 'atoms' thanks to the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles, combined with the long term dynamics of nearshoring/onshoring/friendshoring, I think oil and oil stocks, biofuel producers, coal, refineries, etc. offer nice upside. Think that India and Mexico will require larger amounts of energy for the wave of industrial activity that will be unleashed there once Western firms move their production to ally nations rather than relying on China, while China reopens and activity resuming unleashes pent up demand on the same finite resources. It's an interesting juncture, and a recipe for potentially explosive upside in certain names.
Let's see how this goes, pick your poison, as far as instruments better suited to express this view in the long term...
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Oatt
$SOYB / $ZS_F: Weekly and monthly trends are upSoybeans have been consolidating and shorts have been hitting the same level near the invasion day highs for 3 months give or take, today price broke out and confirmed a weekly trend signal. The monthly timeframe indicates beans can rally until October 2022, so, getting lower timeframes to turn bullish again presents us with a massive reward to risk long opportunity here. I bot July futures / $SOYB calls today, aiming to capture the move shown in the continuous chart here. If you want you can join the trade when beans futures open tonight, keep in mind you will need to roll the position to the next contract month 8 calendar days before the expiration date give or take (you'll see volume is high on that day), or, to make it simpler, buy the Nov 18 $31 strike $SOYB calls. If you buy futures, calculate risking a drop under last week's low, if you buy options, calculate risking 1-5% of your capital in call premium. Over time we might be able to bet on higher strikes as well, or trade around the position in shorter term timeframes (often good to delta hedge calls with 15m setups on the short side if you're good at scalping, then use proceeds to add to the call position for increased exposure without increasing risk).
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.