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Weekly Bias for SPX - 10/1/2023Weekly Chart: Traded into last week's bearish engulfing candle and then took out its low. Traded into a +POI (W+FVG), wicked near MT at 4236.6 Weekly Idea: Because we are bearish but entered into this +POI, with may get a bounce but would look to see if the PWL is taken out for a continuation lower. For now, I'm 505/50 on this mainly because of the W+FVG. A bullish scenario would need to be revisited Daily Chart: Price took out the PWL and set a low on the Daily in the W+FVG, however, price bounced from the area without making a new high. This is logic to stay on the downside for now. Another thing to note, Friday's close is at the mid point of the weekly range, Weekly high 4347.4, Weekly Low 4243.2, and Weekly mid point 4295.3, finally Weekly close/ Friday closing price 4295.3. Daily idea: Because of the close and the price failing to make a new high this give reasoning to at least look for the price to take out the PDL and -LP ( $ trend line liquidity) with best case scenario, price taking out the PWL. A bullish scenario would need to be revisited 4H Chart/Idea: We have a 4H-OB and 4H-FVG, one the LTF, do we have price return to mitigate this area? The +breaker is hold price up for now and this will be the first thing that I look at for a response of what price decides to do. The low was made in a +POI, a +OB but will it hold?
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Cory4rex
10/2/23: Sell Setup on SPX10/2/23: Sell Setup: I was looking for a continuation set up on SPX. TK/SY session set a small range that held London but was taken out in the premarket session. This left a 1H/15m-FVG set up with a -OB on the 1H. Price trades into the 15m-FVG (L) and pushed down and failed to make a new low followed by EQLs being set in NY open session. Once the EQLs were made we traded back into the 15m-FVG(MT) and tapped into the mid point. I didn’t see the clean enter in the 15m but the 5m chart gave a great entry that I missed. My targets were the PDL, EQLs/Thurs PDL, and PWL. No entry on the setup, had two attended two meetings back to back and I had to present on the calls. This was the 1st set up I was looking for but I was on a work call and miss this one. This gave confirmations on the 5m/15m charts and this would have been a trade that would have hit the first target of 4274.08 then BE on the remaining. This was the second entry I was looking for, higher into the 15m-FVG. NAS was also reaching into its own FVG which gave me a more validation this was a good setup. But as soon as we passed the mid point at 4297.80 it tanked without confirmations on any of the LTFs, even as far as the 1m chart. This was the final entry, later than I would normally be looking for anything but also no confirmation and this was a good thing because the price could not take out the low and pushed back up off to the DL. Sell Entry: 4293.05,4297.80, 4284.39 SL: 4300,4303.65,4293.05 Targets: 4274.08, 4263.03,4238.23 We’re pushing up for now, we have NY session high, Weekly opening price, and Friday PDH 15m chart:
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for DXY/GU - 10/1/23Weekly Chart: DXY and GU both have reach POI, on DXY a W-OB and on GU a W+FVG. In this scenario, I'd be looking for DXY to see how we respond to the PWH if we fail to take it out and trade back into last week's range, I'll look to the downside potentially. If we trade through it, the +LP at 107.993 will be the next draw. GU will have to deal with the W+FVG and the YOP which may be a tough task. Weekly Idea: DXY's strength be the thing I'm watching. This is a good area to fall from and that will spring GU to the up side. A fall lines up with the YOP holding price up on GU. However, if we take out the high on DXY, GU reaches into the YOP Daily Chart: The first draw is the PDH on DXY and the PDL on GU. We will need to pay attention to how the engulfing candles made on Thursday on DXY/GU are handled and this will be a range that the LTF will need to deal with. 4H Chart: DXY has a small 4H-FVG but the one above it is the one I'm interested in. The PDH has already been taken out and the response to the highs are what I'm looking for. On GU, the PDL hasn't been taken yet but its at risk so, I'll be looking at how price reacts to all of the +POIs (D+FVG,4H+Breaker, and the 4H+FVG, 4H+OB). If DXY fails to push through PDH, well look for price to trade into the 4H+FVG and and the same time I'll be looking at price inside of the 4H-FVG on GU.
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for Nas100 - 10/1/2023Weekly Chart: Price took out the PWL and the August low into a W+OB and we did close positively for the week. We did create the low of a W-FVG (not drawn but, it's there) and price closed near the middle of the weekly range, Weekly High 14906.5, Weekly Low 14429.3, Weekly Mid point 14667.9, Weekly close 14741.8. Weekly idea: Price took out lows into the W+OB but for now there is a W+FVG below that may be the target. If we take out the PDL, this will be my target into the the W+FVG(H) near 14232.7. In order to turn bullish I will need to see a high taken out and I'll want to see what price does inside the W-FVG. Daily Chart: Price traded into a D-FVG and set the high near the D-FVG (MT) and left a huge wick with a Friday close near the Mid point of the Weekly range. We took out the bearish engulfing made on Tuesday but by Friday we traded back into it. Daily Idea: Price leaving that large wick will cause for me to look at how price response to the close, middle and high of the candle. Do we fail inside this wick or take out the high? This is the question I'll be looking to answer. If we fail, I'll be looking to take out the PDL and THURS PDL. If we take out the high, price should close the D-FVG and trade into another D-FVG just above (not drawn) with the low near 14974.1. 4H Chart: Price left a 4H-OB inside the daily wick and the low was made inside a 4H+FVG(H) 14661.5. There is a +CHOCH above THURS PDH and the this is my hesitation to go full on bearish on the short term. There is also a 4H+Breaker that Friday could not take out as well. 4H Idea: I want to see if price will take out the 4H-OB or the PDL
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
USDJPYAs a student of SMC, I've just shorted USDJPY earlier in the day on the 1H timeframe. There is a 1H OB where price showed a strong rejection (it may or may not respect it). Further more there is a divergence happening on the Daily Timeframe. Add on to more confirmation, there is a strong resistance where price shows there is a strong sellers happening at that 1H OB area. If you do have any suggestions or Idea's or even traders from SMC, drop down a comment down below. let's discuss more about USDJPY market structure. NOTE: I'm not a professional advisor nor a signal provider, trade at your own risk and MM.
Short
by Student_of_Forex
Harmonic + OB + IMB + OTE: Failed1. I used the Previous OTE ZONE as my entry area when it has already been tapped a few times... 2. I did not plot a fib ret on the latest swing low/high for some reason despite there being a ChoCh present. One thing to note about this though, is that the FIBRET is Reversed. Seeing the non-reversed version meant there was no OB + OTE confluence anywhere. Maybe that's why I didn't bother with it. Here's the thing though.. and what is probably a crucial information that I wouldn't have learned if I didn't lose this trade: Putting fibret on reverse, meant it confluenced with the FVG. So what I've learned: 1. OTE + FVG MIGHT JUST BE AS VIABLE AS OTE + OB. 2.Try out both reversed and non-reversed versions of fib ret. There might be a confluence you are not seeing. ALSO, VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: If price left your entry point, and reached target take profit (liquidity, fvg, s/r levels, etc) first... Close the trade. Reaching the target take profit means the market maker move is done. It means the intention has been fulfilled, and it's time to make a new price action setup. So the next time it reaches your target entry point, the price has a higher chance of not bouncing, because price is already moving with different intent. CANCEL COMPLETED TRADES. SAVE YOUR CAPITAL. DON'T GIVE IT UP EASILY.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HaribonALT
USDJPY Short IdeaWe are Currently in Premium, testing a Bearish Orderblock in the form of PDA. Inside this Orderblock, we have a new orderblock from which price moved rapidly away from as well as it took out previous high, which validates the OB. Price Manipulated the Previous Highs with a long wick, making this a Smart Money Reversal. We have a lot of FVG and EQL (SSL) to fill in. As another confirmation, we expect a retracement down as we have an overextended W, which should attract the market to move downwards. If the price should reach there, I'm looking to scale off some profits at around 110.077. Two possible Scenarios, One entry (main setup), it's a lower entry so more likely to get triggered. One entry at Equilibrium (CE), which has way better Risk to Reward but is less likely to get triggered. (however, LTF created lots of imbalance inside the new OB, which could definitely get filled) --------------------------------------------------- Confirmations: - In Premium - Orderblock INSIDE bigger Orderblock - Manipulation of the High - FVG & SSL Targets - W formation Retracement --------------------------------------------------- My ONLY Concern for me is that we have a lot of News today which could impact price to move the other direction. This may fail, but at least I'm not afraid to show my risk to reward box BEFORE it happens, unlike 95% of everyone on this platform. If it fails, I still have a strong belief that these FVG and SSL level will get filled soon, and I'll still keep them as targets for future trades.
Short
by Bastianelton
ES short-term analysisToday I want to see fill of the 1h Breakaway Gap - 4139. My key level 4125. This is buystops level. Pretty sure it will want to test it to complete ATM/ICT Mentorship Model. My Pre-market Plan for May 24, 2023: Bullish Scenario - Break above 4165 (short-term BSL, 4163 NY Midnight Open Price as well) can bring some bulls —> 4175 - this is "NWOG" - 04/16-04/21. Market looks more bearish anyway. Once it tested 4175 level and failed to hold it, I am going to play long w/ target at 4186-90. 1h OB - 4190 + 1h FVG. Bearish Scenario - Break below 4132 ("NWOG" - 05/07-05/12) will give short trade opportunity with target at 4126. Next my trade can be below 4120 - SSL on 1h chart. Once it breaks this SSL level, it will open the room to the 4111. Key Levels for long today: 4158, 4168, 4185 Key Levels for short today: 4131, 4122, 4104
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by LumiTraders
USDCHF Update. New hight ? After a good start on the 15-minute chart around the Point of Interest for buyers on the 4-hour chart, I noticed that we are also in a key area of interest on the 1-day chart. According to the Smart Money concept since January 2021, we have only just finished accumulating liquidity. After such a powerful one-day candle, I decided to leave a portion of my deposit in trading to hold 0.01 lots until the price reaches the last untested zone on the 1-day chart, which settled around 0.10000. Since my broker still has long funding, this could be a great trade. Criteria for closing the position: The price reaches my stop loss, which I will occasionally move relative to the zones of interest on the 4-hour chart. The funding turns against me.
Long
by Scythe_