US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) 4-HR TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISthis forecats will be unique and split in two as we look at the geo-political factors affecting the US dollar.
Technicals:
---------------
The US dollar index is moving in an uptrend, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. It has recently broke a counter-trendline on the 4-hour timeframe and is expected to move higher. The dollar has continued to strengthen against major currencies like the sterling pound and the Australian dollar over the past weeks.
Fundamentals:
-------------------
The Trump administration has made it clear that it aint scared of escalating the trade war against China, as long as they feel China still needs to learn a lesson. Trump made it known to the world (on Twitter obviously!!!) that he will not be reaching a consensus with the Chinese any time soon. This has proved positive for the United States dollar as the US has all the leverage against China, with goods of up to USD$200 billion at stake. China is at crossroads with it's flagship telecommunications company Huawei also being hung out to dry by American companies like Google and the SD Association. China clearly is moving one step closer to Mr Trump's "nuclear football" in this "cold war" warfare. It is surprising that people still hate Trump after all he did for the US economy. It's like how they rejected the prophets even though they had good intentions. I believe most hate stems from Mr Trump's no-nonsense immigration stance as foreigners fear that they will be chased back to their motherland. Otherwise some of the racism claims are baseless. And yeah they almost purged Kanye West for saying that Trump was gonna make America "great again". My loyalty lies with whoever makes me money, though that my leave my ethics in question. The truth is as a trader, Mr. Trump has made it easier for me to understand the dollar movement and therefore he has my respect. If you already feel like throwing up after reading this then go book a session with Hillary Clinton and Obama. First black president but aint done nothing but the crappy Obamacare. Lest you doubt, let me tell you some of the highlights of Trumps office run:
1) Managed to stop World War 3 by having talks with the mental North Korean Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un, convincing him to reduce/stop the nuclear race.
2) Best stock market rally with Dow Jones Index closing at $26,828.39
3) Started the biggest trade war in history and still has leverage (still on top)
4) Almost 4 million jobs created since election.
5) More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
6) Created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since election.
7) Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES.
8) Economic growth last quarter hit 3.2 percent.
9) New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low.
10) Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
11) African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
12) Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
13) Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
14) Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
15) Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
16) Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
17) Veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
18) Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
19) The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
20) 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever.
21) Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
22) As a result of the tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
23) Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
24) Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup.
25) Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
26) Record number of regulations eliminated.
27) Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
28) Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE.
29) More affordable healthcare options for Americans through association health plans and short-term duration plans. The FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. Many drug companies are freezing or reversing planned price increases.
30) Reformed the Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors hundreds of millions of dollars.
31)Signed Right-To-Try legislation.
32) Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
33) Reduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during his first year in office.
34) Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA tele-health services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
35) Increased coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high.
36) United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
37) Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord.
38) Cancelled the illegal, anti-coal, so-called Clean Power Plan.
39) Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
40) NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016.
41) Process has begun to make the Space Force the 6th branch of the Armed Forces.
42) Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
43) Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
44) Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal.
45) Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
46) Protecting Americans from terrorists with the Travel Ban, upheld by Supreme Court.
47) Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak.
48) Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
49) Imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to protect national security.
50) Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices.
51) Net exports are on track to increase
52) Improved vetting and screening for refugees, and switched focus to overseas resettlement.
53) Begun building the US-Mexico border wall which will curb drug trafficking from Mexico.
Source: www.whitehouse.gov
