Occidental
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM ($OXY): Should Call it Accidental Petroleum✨ We provide charts every day ✨
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Everyone's favorite oil company Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) formed a massive gap on its chart back in March.
While earnings was a mixed bag, to say the least, with dismal earnings growth, OXY still beat analyst expectations (in part by cutting spending) and is showing solid growth in revenue.
Despite the mixed earnings, from a technical perspective, it looks like we may be getting a chance at a long entry with a potential target above the gap.
Reference: www.earningswhispers.com | www.barrons.com
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1. Our Fractal trend indicator is signaling an uptrend (Blue bar color) on the 2 hour chart.
2. With the strategy, we want to go long on a retest of the previous S/R as plotted by Alpha Directional Bias in an uptrend.
3. We have stops just below previous swing lows to try and evade any liquidity hunting that may occur before a move higher.
4. Our first target is the R1 range formed by previous highs/gap open, our second target R2 is the assumed S/R flip that occurred in March.
5. To lock in profit, we can also watch for short signals ("S") from Triggers along the way.
Oil ComparisonsOXY has the majority of its EV tied up in oil/gas and with the recent OPEC fallout it may make sense as a long.
More research on extraction costs should probably be done because there may be a serious problem for the firm if oil prices are kept low and operations are not profitable. A minor portion of noncurrent assets is in chemicals and marketing but not enough to say it will determine where the firm will go in terms of price.
Carl Icahn increased his stake to 10% but this may have been more of averaging down his position since he originally entered near ~$60 a share or in that region so buying in at around $14 a share would mean more control in the firm for less of an investment.
Short term I expect dividends to be slashed, I will be very surprised if they post net profit at the next earnings as the oil price shock should have killed their margins.
Intermediate to long term, potentially an acquisition target for and XOM or CVX (my guess is CVX because of the Andarko swipe) but it's hard for me to see what else bad can come out for the firm. Oil prices being slashed is likely the worst possible thing and with the coronavirus disrupting trade it really makes sense for OPEC to collude in order to fund government aid. Saudi Arabia/Russia don't have too much of a problem with the outbreak but with decreases in travel and commerce due to governmental bans externalities may force both back to the table.
Or at the least create a stronger incentive for collusion as both will have a need to financing
Neutral on OXY, but intriguedAs you can see by the descending trendline, the decline in OXY over the past year has actually been somewhat organized. The share price is now at a level not seen since November 2008, which leaves me tempted to initiate a small position as the risk/reward seems favorable. My suggested stop would be anywhere from $37 to $37.50.
Obviously there are a lot of storylines at play with OXY, but insiders have been buying, Berkshire's been buying, and most analysts' price targets are well above where the share price is now.
I'm intrigued.
Occidental Petroleum: Short opportunity on the Falling Wedge.Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) has been trading within a Falling Wedge since the start of 2019 (1M RSI = 31.189, MACD = -6.930, Highs/Lows = -12.8700, ADX = 47.707). The RSI on the 1D chart has clearly marked the last 3 Lower Highs near the 61.000 level. We expect a decline based on that pattern and are targeting the 40.10 Support.
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Occidental Petroleum finally at supportPrice finally reached the $40 level, closing shorts here and now looking for reversal. Already seeing divergence on a weekly chart, This is a very strong support level.
On a daily chart (see below) rosk-reward for a long is best at the moment, targetting a retest fo the $58-$60 area. Could form inverse H&S here.
Next earnings on November 4, and company nudged its estimate for third-quarter production higher on Tuesday.
Based on price targets from other banks and investment funds, it is very oversold and expectations are to go up.
Good Luck!
Occidental Petroleum updateLast time price was this low was in February 2009. With global growth worries as banks across the globe started to cut rates this summer, oil prices took another blow and stock of Occidental followed. A major level is at $40 where a great risk-reward buying opportunity, if the level holds.
On the technical side, stock is oversold on indicators and waiting for the reversal pattern on smaller time frames.
Major banks downgraded Occidental stocks 'from Buy to Neutral' in the first quarter of 2019 with price target ranging $55-$70. As the price hits support and global growth picks up would be a great opportunity to ride the wave here. Good Luck!