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Odds

Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
SP:SPXEducation
by citsvar
How we have been trading EURUSD D1How we have been trading EURUSD D1 (Daily chart) with our indicators + hand-drawn trend lines. After 10 years of R&D (we have been testing different indicators every day for a decade), we have developed our own Suite of 26 indicators. Here are just a few of them. Indicators names (from top to bottom): - Strength Shows the strength of the market, the direction, pullbacks, equilibrium, and flats. - Bear&Bull Powers Shows the battle between the bears and the bulls. - Angle Indicates the direction and angle of the trend and the pullbacks. - Template Our main central indicator simplifying charts and bringing clarity. - Steepness Displays how steep the trend is and comments: Going Up/Down | Trending | Strong/Weak | Pulling Back | Retracement | Flat | 75% Blue Background | ... - Odds 11 indicators calculating the odds. - Probability 75 indicators calculating the probabilities.
by ascension
How we have been trading Bitcoin D1How we have been trading Bitcoin (Daily chart) with our indicators + hand-drawn trend lines. After 10 years of R&D (we have been testing different indicators every day for a decade), we have developed our own Suite of 26 indicators. Here are just a few of them. Indicators names (from top to bottom): - Strength Shows the strength of the market, the direction, pullbacks, equilibrium, and flats. - Bear&Bull Powers Shows the battle between the bears and the bulls. - Angle Indicates the direction and angle of the trend and the pullbacks. - Template Our main central indicator simplifying charts and bringing clarity. - Steepness Displays how steep the trend is and comments: Going Up/Down | Trending | Strong/Weak | Pulling Back | Retracement | Flat | 75% Blue Background | ... - Odds 11 indicators calculating the odds. - Probability 75 indicators calculating the probabilities.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ascension
Time To Drop The Aussie? Yeah nah yeahAlright the AUD has had a short bearish rally and stalled. Now retracing, we are faced with the question: Is this a new trend, or just a pullback in the bull market. Bullish factors: - Bounce from the 50D moving average - Yesterday closed bullish - RBA has addressed that further interest rate hikes will be needed Bearish factors: - Potential pricing in of future rate raises into the market already - Recession, strong US jobs data - 1H chart entered a bearish market - broken double top neckline Comment what you think! I am going short here but we shall see what happens.....
Short
by tomstewy
Short term/long term plansDJT is one of my canaries (in the coal-mine). I also look at DJI and SPX similarly, they give you a good idea about what's happening at the market in general. The idea is to notice the steep pink/magenta arrows (6 of them within 2 months! should be enough to learn from it) and conclude, that the blue arrows are the 'real' ones that would represent a trend instead of short lived run ups that will never last and continue permanently. I hope it's not confusing: just compare the angles of the arrows (how steep the blue vs.pink). One of them works, the other doesn't. More over, looking at the longer run (1 year ahead) this recent blue arrow could be a correction of a bear market even (like a big bear flag) after all, we are in the middle of a great recession, an "unprecedented" economic situation that has no pair since 1929, right? At least that's what I heard. So accordingly, it's more likely that this phase is a correction, and we are still in a bear market. So, maybe the V shape recovery will work now, for the 7th time? If we leave out all the news and all the economic background, the bankruptcies, the high unemployment numbers and it's consequences nationwide and only analyze the chart from a mathematical perspective (like common sense betting on odds), then yes, it's possible. A 1 in a 7 chance, so less then 15% to win, more than 85% to loose. Still wanna bet on the quick upside or some kind of a pull back, down correction, leg down or even a bigger collapse/downturn should follow any time soon? Let me know in the comments, more likely UP or DOWN?
DJ:DJTShort
by janfoux
#bitcoin - Bullish "Symmetrical Triangle" on 240Good morning guys, Bitcoin is still forming the symmetric triangle on H4, which naturally has better odds to break upwards, than downwards. The targets of this symmetric triangle are similar to the max-targets of the older bullish Adam & Eve to the top and if we break this down (possibly after a false break-out) our main target would be around $10750. You would be able to see false & valid break-outs in either direction when the red marked levels on top and below the symmetric triangles are broken or declined. Generally, this is a bullish setup, saying that Bitcoin is very famous for its surprises, thinking about possible stop-runs after break-out. __________________________________________ Warm redards, Neru
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gl4diator
11
#BTC $BTCUSD 4H Update AnalysisOn chart is shown a partial of circular support and resistance purple-colored lines. Support at 6650 and 6550 Resistance at 6850 and 7200 2 PRs: PR1 trgt = 6605 (reached) (=strong signal) -- further uptrending momentum is likely - failing more than 2 PR failures. PR2 trgt = 7034.51 (Not yet reached) -- needs more time till proven failed (=avg strength signal w/BearishDiv) MAs are Positive on price. RSI wma45 is positive 1 NR: Failed on 4H 1 NR: Still putting negative pressure on 12H frame Entry made @ 6500 - June 18th 50% position sold ~ 6730 June 20th placed stop 1: 6525 placed stop 2: 6300 Re-entry @ breakout of 6800 - 6900 zone with valid volume on 4H frame Odds: 60% Up 40% Dn
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by tatrader77
GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPENMysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to the BOE base rate (details below), the median bank forecast of the Bank of England Policy change on the 4th of August is becoming ever more dovish (e.g. calls for >£50bn QE and more than 25bps of cuts by Banks). 2. Struggling to find answers I looked at the Article 50 odds/ Implied probability from the odds aggregator (oddschecker) - to my surprise, but in support of GBP top side I have seen the market shift aggressively in the last week - with odds of a 2016 signing falling to 16.5% from 35%, but more worryingly the odds of a 2018 or later or NOT AT ALL steepening aggressively to 50% from 30% . - 2018 or later or not at all is now the most probable outcome, worrying that this is even possible given the referendum was decided by the people in a democracy - how is this even possible? IMO it should have been mandated to be signed within a given period e.g. 1wk/ 1m. - Even more worrying is that T. May the newly elected PM, Pre-PM was a brexit Bull and vowed that exiting the EU was her top priority and she "saw it as a way to make Britain great again". However, now if you look at the news, she is somewhat of a Brexit bear, recently stating "The Article 50 will NOT be signed in 2016" - completely writing the front end of the curve off. 3. This is likely the potential driver of sterling strength as a delayed non-signing 1) increases the time until we actually leave the EU - given there is ALREADY a clause in the article 50 agreement that states there is a 2yr "cooling off/ negotiation period" where Britain's relationship with the EU will remain exactly the same for 2yrs once the article 50 is signed - so by not signing it until mid 2017 this means technically there will be 3yrs between Brexit vote and leaving which means three years of relatively unchanged economic conditions - thus this in mind why should GBP get weaker now/ in the near-term? 2) and in turn, the above reduces BOE cutting odds - if we're not leaving any time soon the economics should be relatively flat thus no easing needed which means less GBP near-term downside. 4. Also another potential sterling topside driver is the speculation that the BOE is coming underpressure NOT to cut rates by Retail Banks as by doing so it reduces their net interest margins (lower profitability) causing restructuring/ lay-offs in the industry - LLOYDS BANKING GROUP IS AXING 3,000 JOBS AND CLOSING 200 BRANCHES AS IT RACES TO CUT COSTS IN ANTICIPATION OF AN INTEREST RATE CUT - if considered a systemic risk this could seriously reduce the probability of BOE action. Though i think it is more of a isolated issue - Lloyds likely needed to restructure anyway based on already low profitability rather than as a direct function of a potential rate cut. It is almost laughable to think 3000 jobs are being cut because of a small 25bps cut alone. Trading implications: 1. Obviously this is a downer on GBP shorts, however, this is ONLY a suggestion for GBP strength - i could be over estimating the impact but the argument is nonetheless a solid one. 2. Still below 1.36 i stay a seller of rallies - and watch closely for the 4th of August when the BOE is expected to deliver easing which should move GBP$ to 1.25-1.28 where i will TP. - Current implied BOE bank rate cut probabilities are priced as the following: -Three month short sterling (GBP) rate - 66% probability of a 25bps cut, up from 64% on the 26th. -GBP Nominal OIS Spot rate - 84% probability of a 25bps cut on the 26th, up from 76% on the 25th -GBP 1m Fwd Nominal OIS Rate - 29bps 100% priced as of 26th, up from 26bps on the 25th.
by QuantumLogicTrading
5