Oil
KOG - OILQuick look at Oil. There is a pivot here in the golden zone around the 70.5 level which we can dip into. Above that level, we would be looking for higher oil with the potential target level on the chart. Note, oil is due a huge pull back, so rejection from one of these resistance levels can give us that pull back in order to get better pricing to long.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
USDJPY H2 Best Level to SHORT/HOLD TP +100/+200 pips🏆USDJPY H2 Market Update H2 chart
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸trading in well defined range
🔸trading near range highs now
🔸range highs set 148.40/148.80
🔸range lows set at 140.80/141.40
🔸strategy: SHORT SELL from resistance
🔸SL 60 pips TP1 +100 pips TP2 +200 pips
🔸swing trade setup for patient traders
🌍 FX Market Snapshot — June 2025
🇪🇺 EUR/USD (~1.1500)
Euro climbs near 1.15 as eurozone inflation cools and ECB turns more dovish.
Stable German sentiment provides support, but softer CPI could limit gains.
🔑 Support: 1.1445 | Resistance: 1.1550
🇬🇧 GBP/USD (~1.3435)
Pound slips toward 1.34 after recent highs, as UK data remains mixed.
Manufacturing picks up, but falling inflation boosts BoE rate cut bets.
🔑 Support: 1.3400–1.3420 | Resistance: 1.3500
🇺🇸 DXY (US Dollar Index, ~99.14)
Dollar edges higher as investors seek safety amid geopolitical tensions.
Mixed US economic signals; eyes on upcoming job data.
🔑 Support: 98.80 | Resistance: 100.00
🇯🇵 USD/JPY (~147.4)
Dollar rallies above 147 as yen weakens; BOJ stays ultra-loose.
Oil price spikes add extra pressure on JPY.
🔑 Support: 145.0 | Resistance: 148.5
📊 Quick View
Pair Rate Support Resistance Key Theme
🇪🇺 EUR/USD ~1.1500 1.1445 1.1550 Dovish ECB, soft CPI
🇬🇧 GBP/USD ~1.3435 1.3400–1.3420 1.3500 Mixed UK data
🇯🇵 USD/JPY ~147.4 145.0 148.5 Yen weakness
🇺🇸 DXY ~99.14 98.80 100.00 Geopolitical risks
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high.
Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid.
The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict.
Key points:
→ Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week).
→ Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
#USOIL - CUT n REVERSE region, still holds??#USOIL.. well guys in first go market perfectly holds our region then again n again..
Now again. Market is in our resistance region and if market hold again then again drop expected.
But
Keep in mind that above that region new will go for cut n reverse on confirmation .
Good luck
Trade wisely
USOIL Is Very Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 73.546.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 79.365 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Massive 4H MA50 bearish breakout.WTI Crude Oil has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.933, MACD = 2.900, ADX = 47.682) as it just broke with force under the 4H MA50. Every time this has taken place in the recent past, a strong downtrend followed. The last such selling sequence dropped by -23.71%. The 4H RSI is on the exact same spot as then. We are bearish, TP = 59.00.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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WTI Oil H4 | Multi-swing-low support at 61.8% Fibo retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 72.92 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 69.10 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 77.60 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Yen slides on oil supply jitters after US attack on IranThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. In the European session, USD/JPY has jumped 1.2% on the day and is trading at 147.82. The yen has fallen to five-week lows against the US dollar.
The fallout from the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend is being felt in the currency markets. The Japanese yen, traditionally a safe-haven currency, continues to depreciate, in response to rising oil prices.
Oil prices rose to their highest level since January on Monday after the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, a critical trade route through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes through each day. Oil prices have jumped about 10% since the Israel-Iran war started on June 13 and fears of a disruption to oil supply could further boost oil prices.
As oil prices have climbed, the yen has lost ground, declining 3.0% since the Israel-Iran war started. Japan imports almost all of its oil and the rise in oil prices is hurting Japan's trade balance.
Japan's core inflation rate climbed 3.7% y/y in May, up from 3.5% in April. Core CPI has accelerated for a third straight month and hit its highest level since Jan. 2023. This was above the market estimate of 3.6%. Headline inflation ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in April, below the forecast of 3.6%.
The rise in core CPI supports the case for the Bank of Japan to boost interest rates, but the uncertainty over tariffs and the Israel-Iran war will likely mean that the BoJ will stay on the sidelines in the coming months.
There is resistance at 146.91. Next, USD/JPY is testing resistance at 147.61
146.51 and 145.81 are the next support levels
What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back.
So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages.
There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time.
We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation.
Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020.
How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40?
In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30.
The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year.
Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction?
This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today.
We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension.
How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55?
I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress.
Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year.
Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes.
Watch the full video:
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
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XTIUSD H4 AnalysisXTIUSD Showing a bearish Flag. If it breaks this zone above, Most probably can fly upto 81.00 and higher. If no, Can rally between 72, 68 or even 66. Trading Analysis from 23-06-25 to 27-06-25. Take your risk under control and wait for market to break support or resistance on smaller time frame. Best of luck everyone and happy trading.🤗
Missiles Flying! Buy OIL, GOLD! Sell the Stock Indices!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th.
This is a revision of the Weekly Forecast I posted yesterday! With the latest US strikes into Iran nuke sites, the fundamentals go from zero to a hundred! Risk on turns immediately to risk off, and gap opens are likely to present themselves.
Look to long the safe havens and short the equities until tensions ease.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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Weekly Market Forecast: Wait To Buy S&P, NAS, & OIL!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th.
The tensions in the Middle East take center stage, as Iran has signaled they are willing to discuss limitations on there Uranium enrichment program. This could allow outflows from safe havens and inflows to risk assets.
Keep and eye on Silver for shorts, in the near term, though.
Let's see if the market tilts its hand early next week. Monday should bring clarity.
Wait for confirmations before entering trades. A break of structure would be ideal! Enter on the pullback to that structure point.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Crude Oil Strategy LayoutThe rise in oil prices on Monday will not only push up household daily expenses such as fuel and heating costs, but also increase corporate operating costs, which may in turn suppress consumption and investment activities. Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out in a Sunday analysis that against the backdrop of the Trump administration's high tariff policies, the U.S. economy was already facing pressure from a slowdown in growth, and the further increase in oil prices would exert "powerful pressure" on household consumption capacity. This may not only weaken consumers' willingness to purchase, but also drag down the pace of overall economic growth.
Crude oil showed a gap-up and then decline trend today, falling sharply from around $77.7. Oil prices gradually corrected today, with the lowest point touching around $72.5 and hovering there. Currently, oil prices are hovering above the support level of 72.0, which is expected to be the bottom support of the box movement. Taken together, crude oil is in a high-range consolidation. In terms of operation, it is considered to lay out long positions on pullbacks.
you are currently struggling with losses,or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:75.0-75.5
Crude Oil Eyes 3-Year Channel BreakoutCrude Oil trades between Israel-Iran-Conflict supply risks, overbought momentum, and the potential for a 3-year channel breakout.
While upside risks from a possible Strait of Hormuz closure remain uncertain, a firm hold above $78 could extend gains toward $80 and $83.50, keeping oil on a bullish edge for H2 2025.
A pullback into the channel may ease inflation concerns and reassert bearish pressure below the $80 mark. Key support lies at $72 for a potential downside resumption.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
OIL: THE CHART THAT COULD TIP THE WORLDWTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power.
Zoom into this chart:
We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC and equities.
2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences.
Chart with FIB Levels:
You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Why this matters:
Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes.
Price to watch:
$76 resistance.
If oil breaks, the markets will react fast.
If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets.
Remember the COVID Crash?
Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up.
Now look where we are:
That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence.
If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move.
TLDR:
Stop trading headlines.
Trade the structure.
This chart is telling us everything.
USoilLatest news. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the restrictions on the import and export of oil and natural gas will increase greatly. Because 20% of the world's oil and natural gas exports come from the Strait of Hormuz. So the trend of geopolitics will affect the closing and opening of this important checkpoint. If the increase in geopolitics really reaches this point, the price of oil may rise to 90$-100$. This is an excellent trading opportunity for investors who like to trade oil. But at present, this is an option for Iran to negotiate. Rather than a real closure, after all, the incident has not developed to this situation. If you like to trade oil. You can also follow me. Get brand new trading opportunities and make profits. Do not trade independently to avoid losses.
Oil panic buying after Iran Strikes?President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open?
In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
If a blockade is enforced, oil prices could rise sharply. ClearView Energy Partners estimates a short-term closure could add between $8 and $31 per barrel. JP Morgan has suggested that a full-scale conflict and complete shutdown could drive prices to $130.
US-Oil will further push upside After Testing TrendlineHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
#202525 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Many gaps on different time frames and I only marked the ones from the daily. Next targets above for the bulls are 80 and the 2023-09 high at 82.91. I think we can see a futures gap up above 81 and then another huge pullback. Supply shock for Oil is still not there or we would not see the market pull back that much. Given the current macro risk we can only expect higher prices but the swings are too wild for me tbh.
current market cycle: bull trend but trading range on 1h tf
key levels: 67 - 83
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. Their only issue is that we are still seeing 5-10% intraday swings to both sides and only if the pull backs become smaller and we leave gaps behind, can we go meaningful higher and stay there. We have two open gaps on the daily chart but market would have to stay above 70 now to confirm them. 77 is the next target for the bulls which would be a higher high above the 2024-04 high.
Invalidation is below 70 - if we drop below, we most likely continue sideways inside the big range until we maybe get another big breakout above
bear case: US bombs on Iran. Interesting to see if we stay below 77 and move sideways. I can not see it but I obviously did not saw the 11% pullback on Monday as well. That was insane. Best bears can hope for is to move sideways and continue with the deep pullbacks. Bears can also make big money on these wild swings, which is not something seen in strong bull trends.
Invalidation is above 77
short term: Bullish but too cautious to trade it. Future gap ups were sold heavily and market has not found acceptance above 73 for the entire week. Still expecting 77 to get hit and there is no reason why we can’t see 80$ on oil over next 2 weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: No bigger opinion other than “don’t be a bear here”. No idea if market can sustain the buying and stay above 70 for longer or even 80 for that matter. Too many big risks which will move the market big time.