USOIL 11th AUGUST 2022The United States posted an increase in inventories of 5.5 million barrels in the past week. The realization was higher than the expected 73,000 barrels. Gasoline products supplied also rose in the last week to 9.1 million barrels per day. The figure marks a 6% decline in demand over the last four weeks compared to the period last year.
From a fundamental point of view, the oil market continues to monitor the development of oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which was resumed earlier this week. The market is also awaiting the release of monthly oil data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled Thursday.
Oil(wti)
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Very Bearish Outlook 🛢
This morning with my students, we discussed WTI Oil.
The price is trading within a wide horizontal trading range on an hourly time frame.
Approaching its resistance, the price formed a double top formation.
Its neckline breakout confirms a highly probable bearish continuation.
Goals:
88.7 / 87.8
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Crude Oil Descending Channel Guiding WTI Lower, Where to?Crude oil prices fell almost 10 percent this week, the worst performance since late March.
A near-term falling channel seems to be guiding WTI lower since June. Meanwhile, a bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is underscoring a bearish posture.
There is certainly room for upside within the channel, with immediate resistance as the 92-95 - 95.11 range. This zone used to hold as support when it was established back in March. Now, it could hold as new resistance.
Immediate support seems to be the 85.38 inflection point.
A confirmatory breakout under this price could open the door to extending losses towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 76.78.
Otherwise, further gains could see the SMAs hold as resistance.
USOIL
USOIL Important Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL broke the key horizontal level
After trading above it for quite some time
So the importance of this move can not
Be overestimated, therefore, the key level
Is now considered to be a resistance
So after the potential pullback and retest
We will most likely see a further bearish move
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
The road to $200 oil is here"Oil is in the process of completing its wave 4 correction. Elliott wave principles stipulate that a shallow wave 2 (which is what played out in oil) is typically followed by a deep wave 4. Oil should find support anywhere between 80-85 but that should provide the launching pad to wave 5 which should take oil to $200
USOIL - Oil will continue to drift lower over medium/long termWe continue to be bearish on USOIL. Accordingly, we still maintain our price target of 90 USD per barrel of WTI oil. Indeed, we would like to change this price target from medium-term to short-term. Additionally, we would like to set a new long-term price target for USOIL at 80 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The sloping line acts as the resistance; the more touches it gains, the more important it grows.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is also neutral. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
MarketBreakdown | EURGBP, WTI Crude Oil, EURAUD, AUDNZD
Hey traders,
here is a brief technical outlook of 4 peculiar instruments on my watch list.
1️⃣ EURGBP - Daily time frame 🇪🇺🇬🇧
The pair is currently approaching a major daily zone of demand.
I will expect a pullback from the underlined structure.
I am patiently waiting for a confirmation to buy.
2️⃣ WTI Crude Oil - Daily time frame 🛢️
The market is steadily falling within a falling parallel channel.
The price is testing its upper boundary now.
Its bullish breakout will trigger a bullish move.
3️⃣ EURAUD - Daily time frame 🇪🇺🇦🇺
The pair broke and closed below a key daily structure support.
I believe that the pair may go much lower now.
Be prepared for one more bearish impulse after a pullback.
4️⃣ AUDNZD - Daily time frame 🇦🇺🇳🇿
The pair is nicely retracing from the year's high.
I guess we will see a bearish continuation this week.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USOIL - 100 USD hit, 95 USD hit... what is next?Our price targets of 100 USD and 95 USD were reached recently. Despite that, we continue to be bearish on USOIL. Accordingly, we still maintain our price target of 90 USD, which we would like to change from long-term to medium-term.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. These moving averages reflect the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is bearish too. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Oil slipping lowerWTI - Intraday - We look to Sell at 97.76 (stop at 101.20)
The medium term bias remains bearish. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 98.00 and should cap gains to this area. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 88.10 and 84.00
Resistance: 98.00 / 112.00 / 126.00
Support: 88.00 / 76.50 / 59.50
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Minor gains to attract fresh selling in WTI?WTI - Intraday - We look to Sell at 100.67 (stop at 103.61)
The primary trend remains bearish. The continuation lower in prices through support has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. We look to sell rallies. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 100.00.
Our profit targets will be 94.04 and 91.00
Resistance: 101.00 / 112.00 / 120.00
Support : 94.00 / 85.00 / 64.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Crude Oil testing 2008 and 2014 key areas cont.The top of the 2014 volume area continues to hold price and will need to do so for price to continue higher
In the last week, the volume point of control has shifted up from 91.6x to 107.6x with the increase in volume due to buying
Question on timing: Has a low been put in place the week of 21-June or will price drift for several more weeks. The 45-period lookback on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd STD LR has seemed to have tight boundaries. I’m not sure if price will drift right several more weeks touching bottom of the 2nd STD LR before continuing up. Although options are expensive, could be opportunity for Oct/Nov 2022 calls.
R4 traditional pivot for 2022 is close to the 2008 high so that would be my first target to close any Oct/Nov calls