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Oil(wti)

WTI Spikes On Large Draw In Gasoline InventoriesThe American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a small build this week for crude oil of 567,000 barrels. The draw comes even as the Department of Energy released 6 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Week Ending May 20. U.S. crude inventories have shed some 75 million barrels since the start of 2021 and about 18 million barrels since the start of 2020, according to API data. In the week prior, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.445 million barrels after analysts had predicted a build of 1.533 million barrels. Oil prices had a modicum of calm on Tuesday, with WTI trading flat with 0% movement from Monday at $110.30 per barrel on the day at 11:21 a.m. ET—down roughly $4.50 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading up 0.20% on the day at $113.70—and down nearly $1 per barrel on the week, with the spread between the two benchmarks now completely evaporated U.S. crude oil production rose to 11.9 million bpd in the week ending May 13. Crude production in the United States is down 1.2 million barrels per day from pre-pandemic times. This week, the API reported a large draw in gasoline inventories of 4.223 million barrels for the week ending May 20—on top of the previous week's 5.102-million-barrel draw. Distillate stocks also saw a draw in inventory, of 949,000 barrels for the week compared to last week's 1.075-million-barrel increase. Cushing saw a 731,000-barrel draw this week. Cushing inventories crashed to 25.839 million barrels in the week prior, as of May 13, according to EIA data—down from 59.2 million barrels at the start of 2021, and down from 37.3 million barrels at the end of 2021.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
Crude needs to bounce off retest support today...Previously bullish on Crude Oil, especially after it met expectations to break out of the triangle. However, it did meet resistance and failed with a gap down, pushing back to retest the triangle. At this point, pre-(US)market hours, Crude broke back into the triangle, which would be bearish in nature, expecting an exit on the other side to ensue in due course. So, in short, be the end of the trading day, Crude needs to spike back up above 18 May close. The OSL line is currently below the 55EMA. Will review again...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Failure To Implement Russian Oil Ban Could Send Oil To 65$ Several E.U. member states made it plain that they will veto any E.U. proposal to ban Russian oil (or gas) imports. Removal of oil ban ‘fear factor’ may significantly reduce risk premium in crude oil prices. Lack of clear leadership from Germany makes an effective oil embargo a long shot. A key factor in the upper band of the benchmark crude oil trading ranges over the past weeks is market concern over a ban of Russian oil exports to the European Union (E.U.). Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Europe was importing around 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia and another 1.5 million bpd of oil products, mostly diesel. This fear, though, is vastly overblown for several reasons analysed below. The removal of this particular fear factor in the oil price will allow oil prices to move back over the course of this year to the level they were before the Russia-Ukraine ‘war premium’ began to be priced in by the smart money in September 2021, which was around US$65 per barrel (pb) of Brent. The primary reason why a meaningful E.U. ban on Russian oil (or gas) will not occur is that it would require the unanimous backing of all of its 27 member countries. Even before the E.U.’s 27 member states met on 8 May to discuss pushing forward with the ban on Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia had made it clear that they were not going to vote in favour of it. According to figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Hungary imported 70,000 bpd, or 58 percent, of its total oil imports in 2021 from Russia, while the figure for Slovakia was even higher, at 105,000 bpd, equating to 96 percent of all its oil imports last year. Other E.U. countries also heavily reliant on Russia’s Southern Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine and Belarus have also made it clear that they are not willing to support the ban on Russian oil exports, the most vocal of which have been the Czech Republic (68,000 bpd, or 50 percent or its 2021 oil imports came from Russia) and Bulgaria (which is almost completely dependent on gas supplies from Russia’s state-owned oil giant Gapzrom, and its only refinery is owned by Russia’s state-owned oil giant, Lukoil, providing over 60 percent of its total fuel requirements). Other E.U. member states that are also especially dependent on Russian oil imports are Lithuania (185,000 bpd, or 83 percent of its 2021 total oil imports) and Finland (185,000 bpd, or 80 percent of its total oil imports). Even compromise proposals offered by the E.U. of allowing Hungary and Slovakia to continue to use Russian oil until the end of 2024 (and the Czech Republic until June 2024) were not enough to remove their opposition to the idea of the E.U. ban on Russian oil. In fact, the only real flurry of activity in terms of a concerted effort by any group within the E.U. since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February has been to ensure that Russia did not stop supplying its member states with either oil or gas due to their not being able to pay in the way Moscow preferred. This followed the 31 March decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin requiring E.U. buyers to pay in roubles for Russian gas via a new currency conversion mechanism or risk having supplies suspended. According to an official guidance document sent out to all 27 E.U. member states on 21 April by its executive branch, the European Commission (E.C.): “It appears possible ,… E.U. companies can ask their Russian counterparts to fulfill their contractual obligations in the same manner as before the adoption of the decree, i.e. by depositing the due amount in euros or dollars.” The E.C. added that existing E.U. sanctions against Russia do not prohibit engagement with Gazprom or Gazprombank, beyond the refinancing prohibitions relating to the bank. Not only have several E.U. member states made it plain that they will veto any E.U. proposal to ban Russian oil (or gas) imports – and recall that all 27 E.U. member states must vote in favour of such a ban for it to come into effect – but also its own executive branch, the E.C., has been busy sending out crib notes on how best to continue to pay for Russian oil and gas imports, effectively to bypass any wider sanctions on them, including those from the U.S. Added to this is the lack of ideological surety emanating from the E.U.’s de facto leader, Germany, on the subject of the ban on Russian oil. There can be little doubt that the E.C.’s handy directive of 21 April on how to skirt sanctions on paying for Russian oil imports received the tacit approval of those responsible for such matters in Germany, otherwise, simply, it would not have been drafted or sent out. Germany is also set to be hit hard itself by any ban on Russian oil in the first instance, and gas later on, being the recipient in 2021 of the most crude oil from Russia of any country in the E.U. – an average of 555,000 bpd, or 34 percent of its total oil imports in that year, according to the IEA. Comments from German Economics Minister, Robert Habeck, that Berlin was prepared for a ban on Russian energy imports were overlaid with considerable detail about how Germany has still not been able to find alternative long-term fuel supplies for the Russian oil that comes by pipeline to a refinery in Schwedt operated by Russia’s state-owned oil giant Rosneft. He concluded that fuel prices could rise and that an embargo “in a few months” would give Germany time to organise itself in this regard. The lack of clear leadership in the E.U. from Germany is not just another reason why there will be no meaningful E.U. ban on Russian oil (and gas) any time soon, if ever, but also opens up the probability that even if there were such a ban then it would have more holes in it than a fine Swiss cheese, just like the earlier bans and sanctions on Iran. As analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, Germany was at the forefront in the E.U. of a range of measures designed to circumvent the mainly U.S.-led sanctions before 2011/2012. Shortly after the U.S. announcement of its unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA deal in May 2018, the E.U. moved to impose its ‘Blocking Statute’ that made it illegal for E.U. companies to follow U.S. sanctions. At around the same time, Germany’s Foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel, warned: “We also have to tell the Americans that their behaviour on the Iran issue will drive us Europeans into a common position with Russia and China against the USA.” Shortly after that, Germany was a key mover in the E.U. introducing a special purpose vehicle – the ‘Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges’ – that would act as a clearing house for payments made between Iran and E.U. companies doing work there. All of this rhetorical flim-flam by Germany and the E.U. has resulted in an oil price that remains way above where it should be, given the confluence of multiple bearish factors currently at play. On the supply side there remain definite pledges from the U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, to engineer a “significant increase” in domestic energy supply by the end of the year, with the U.S. also working to identify at least three million bpd of new global oil supply. There remains the prospect of further strategic petroleum releases as and when required both from the U.S. and from member countries of the IEA, and of a new ‘nuclear deal’ with Iran as the U.S. is still open to the idea. Additionally, the U.S.’s ability to pressure OPEC into increasing production has been increased by its resuscitating the threat of the ‘NOPEC’ Bill. On the demand side, there remains further likely destruction from the COVID-related lockdowns across China, and no prospect of its ‘zero-COVID’ policy being meaningfully relaxed, and of a series of U.S. interest rate hikes stifling economic growth elsewhere. It is apposite to note at this point that even without these bearish factors in play, Brent crude was trading at around US$65 pb before the real Russia-Ukraine war premium was kicked in by the smart money in September 2021 when U.S. intelligence officers started to notice highly unusual Russian military movements on the Ukraine border after the conclusion of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises that had taken place.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
China To Offload 2 Million Barrels of Iranian Crude Despite SancAfter easing up on Iranian oil somewhat in favor of heavily discounted Russian crude, China is now set to receive nearly two million barrels of Iranian oil, Reuters reports, citing Vortexa Analytics tanker tracking data. The cargo, set to unload in south China later this week for pumping into the government’s reserves, is the third large cargo to come from Iran since December. The cargo is reportedly on board a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, which indicates it will be officially recorded as a Chinese purchase of Iranian crude. As Reuters notes, China does not officially register all of its crude imports from Iran, with some masked to appear as if they are coming from other suppliers, including Iraq and Oman. Reuters estimates that unofficial Iranian crude imports to China are around 7% of China’s total crude imports. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian oil exports rose to 870,000 bpd in the first three months of this year, which represents a 30% increase over total 2021 exports. Nor is China expected to be hit by secondary sanctions by the U.S. for dealing with Iran “because Washington has its plate full with Russia,” a Kpler analyst told the Journal. While Iran may be optimistic following Washington’s move yesterday to ease some sanctions on Venezuela, so far, there are no indications of progress in the nuclear deal with Iran. On Tuesday, Washington said a deal was “far from certain” and the onus was fully on Tehran, which continues to make demands for conditions that the United States will not agree to. Despite a lack of agreement, Iran appears to be preparing for some form of sanctions easing due to supply pressure as a result of sanctions on Russia. According to Seatrade Maritime, the NITC has recently announced new construction of crude oil tankers and repairs to its aging fleet in an apparent preparation for re-entering the legitimate global oil market.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
🛢️ CRUDE OIL - The Monday Rise⚡ ⚡ ⚡ 🍂⚡ ⚡ ⚡A expected Oil ended up higher on Monday: The only answer is Ukraine.. and the news from there are most likely expected to be Bad, or Very Bad. Kinda difficult to have them good (and impossible to have the Very Good) So: We expect Oil to most likely rise and there is a possibility that it opens a lot higher next week. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR ps. EU oil ban IS NO BAN.. THERE PROBABLY CAN'T BE ONE. LET'S FACE IT: EU is dependent on Russian Oil. Especially Germany, the European economy's 'motor'. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
TVC:USOILLong
by FX_Professor
3
🛢️ CRUDE OIL - The Monday Gap ⚡ ⚡ ⚡ 🍂⚡ ⚡ ⚡ Oil has been rising as expected but the markets will close for the weekend and they will open on Monday... There are some traders out there (including myself) that dare take this kind of trades. Make sure it's a small amount and i high leverage (hero or zero- small special account) Do not try this at home.. Will the prices open Higher or Lower during the weekend? And why? The only answer is Ukraine.. and the news from there are most likely expected to be Bad, or Very Bad. Kinda difficult to have them good (and impossible to have the Very Good) So: We expect Oil to most likely rise and there is a possibility that it opens a lot higher next week. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR News: EU oil ban adds pressure on Russia but obstacles remain : www.aljazeera.com
TVC:USOILLong
by FX_Professor
11
☑️BRENT: small update➡️ A small update to Friday's oil short idea in a new idea format. The priority of shorts remains, the fundamental reasons remain the same, but a larger perspective, of course, should most likely be expected to go long. Technically, at the moment, the actual short. One can open short from the current levels ( ~111.50$ ). The target of the fall will be the level ~107.17 . 👇 Previous idea for BRENT 👇 ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
TVC:UKOILShort
by TradePlus-Fx
15
We could see a HUGE move on Oil in a longterm. DON'T MISS IT. As you can see Oil slowly returns to a huge Ascending Channel which has started in 1999. As long as Oil is inside of the Channel (or close to it) I am great believer of Oil rise. Due to a symmetry I suppose that we could see a huge move till the top of the channel with possible break (or not?) at a middle of a channel. If this setup comes true you were bought at the bottom of the channel and could sell at the top of the channel - that's what every trader dreams about. However, if Oil leaves a channel we could see rush FALL till 20+ area or lower which could mean that all who has leveraged could loose a capital. So, RR is about 1:2. Trade looks to be really danger, so Risk Management is a mandatory (if you just press BUY button with no thinking about risk management of a trade, you probably loose a lot (or everything)). If you have no skills or experience to manage risks, better stay away from Oil now.
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn163516
1