UKOIL Testing Support, Potential Bounce!Price is facing bullish pressure as we could potentially see a bounce at our 1st support level at 71.28, which is in line with our 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension and a further rise towards our 1st resistance level at 76.12 which is in line with our horizontal swing high and 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Our bullish view is further supported by how Stochastic is testing support where price bounce in the past. Otherwise, price may bearish to our 2nd support at 69.49 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Oil(wti)
#WTI #Crude #Oil Hurricane Katrina VolitilityExpect a lot of volatility in the oil market in the next few days.
Friday we had JP lean pretty dovish for his Jackson Hole speech bullish for price.
Many are taking the narrative that Hurricane Ida will disrupt oil production...thereby increasing crude prices. That is true enough. However, there is also refineries that have gone offline.
So it's not a one way narrative.
Ida is going to be one hell of a storm by the looks of it...and many are comparing it to Katrina. Ida's winds are currently stronger....though Katrina was much larger.
So a perfect comparison is not possible...still it can give us some good clues.
Katrina hit the gulf coast on Sunday, August 28th, 2005. On Friday the 26th, Katrina had recently been upgraded from a tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane.
The price of WTI on Friday August 26th was $66.07.
Over the weekend...Katrina quickly picked up strength and hammered the Gulf coast.
The future's market opened Sunday...still while the hurricane was in force...gapped up to $68.58...for a delta of $2.51.
Over the next few days we had a high low delta of about $4.85...then prices went down.
I don't know what prices will do...but I do expect a lot of volatility.
MarketBreakdown | BITCOIN, WTI OIL, AUDUSD, EURJPY
Hey traders,
here is a brief technical outlook of 4 peculiar instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ BITCOIN - Daily time frame ₿
The market is steadily growing.
For now, the price perfectly respects the boundaries of a rising wedge pattern.
50.000 important psychological level was reached.
I am a strong believer that quite soon we will see a correctional movement/retracement.
It will be confirmed ONLY AFTER a bearish breakout of the support of the wedge (daily candle close below).
Remember, that it is too late to buy, in my view, and at the same time too risky to sell.
Be patient and sell after a breakout or buy after a correctional movement.
🎥Full Video Analysis -
2️⃣ WTI Crude Oil - 12H time frame 🛢️
What a nice bounce from 52.0 key daily structure support.
Now it is a very decisional moment for WTI:
the price is currently trading within a falling parallel channel.
Its bullish breakout will trigger a bullish continuation to higher structure levels.
Alternatively, being respected with an 4h/1h confirmation, we will expect a retest of the local low and a potential breakout attempt.
Wait for the decision and follow the market.
3️⃣ AUDUSD - 2 days time frame 🇦🇺🇺🇸
AUDUSD is trading in a strong bearish trend.
The price is sharply falling within a parallel channel.
On Friday its support was reached,
the price respected that and now we see a pullback.
I will look for a trend following movement from the resistance of the channel.
It is the closest safe sell zone to consider.
🎥Full Video Analysis -
4️⃣EURJPY - Daily time frame 🇪🇺🇯🇵
Similar to AUDUSD, EURJPY is trading in a bearish trend.
The price action, for now, follows a falling wedge pattern.
Being bearish-biased, I am looking for a confirmation on a lower time frame at the moment to short.
By confirmation, I mean a reversal pattern on 4h/1h.
In case of a bullish breakout of resistance of the wedge,
bullish rally will be expected.
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WTI OIL aiming at the 1D MA50Pattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) made a strong rebound on the Higher Lows trend-line, (b) near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and (c) broke above the Pivot Zone.
Target: The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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WTI strong bullish trend continuesWill oil continue in the bull run? IMHO, yes, we have several confirmations, like a hidden bullish divergence....and such as the bullish formation of a falling wedge pattern, whose 5 foot ended and bounced daily. Now I expect a retest of the previous high, which is also the target falling wedge, this move should ensure around 1000 pips with the potential after overcoming this high up to 89, which is another 1000 pips
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Short Trade Explained
WIth a recent breakout of a key structure support,
our outlook is very bearish on OIL.
Unfortunately, we missed a bearish rally.
Now we are planning to join the move.
We are waiting for an occasional retest of the broken key level.
Swing Trade
SELL WTI OIL
Entry Level - 66.0
Sl - 68.4
Tp - 61.8
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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#Oil #WTI $CL_F correctionThis morning oil had an aggressive selloff...again...at $70.20.
The selloff was not just aggressive...but textbook.
Oil posted a 3 wave correction with C wave of equal length to A wave...stopping on the screws at 67.80.
There is a lot of accumulation happening now between $68.05 and $68.15.
There may be some stop loss hunting as the institutions soak up liquidity...but I expect a resumption to the upside soon.
Technical analysis update: USOIL (5th August 2021)USOIL experiences selling pressure after its short rebound above 70 USD per barrel. Currently, price trades around Support 1. Next important level to watch is Support 2 at 65.11 USD. At the moment we expect this price level to hold. ADX is low which suggest neutral trend and thus sideways moving price action. MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all bearish on daily timeframe. Despite that we remain optimistic on future price of oil. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD.
Here is hourly timeframe:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
CRUDE OIL Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is trading in a kind of a massive wedge
And now oil is falling down to retest the rising support
From where I am expecting a local pullback
With the final target being the horizontal resistance above!
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
OIL to 56usd or heading back to 100usd ?After continuous growth, oil does not stop here.
According to speculation, it will exceed 100 USD per barrel by the end of 2021.
As of 7/19/21, oil has suffered a slight depreciation, it is still possible to reach up to 56USD or re-enter the road to 100.
*** It is not a trading idea, only for informational purposes ***
CL1 Short to 0.618 fibIRAQ IS SEEKING HIGHER OPEC+ PRODUCTION BASELINE: DELEGATE
UAE ENERGY MINISTRY SAYS NO AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED YET WITH OPEC+ ON SUPPLY DEAL, DELIBERATIONS CONTINUE
With the OPEC agreement in a state of deliberation, and compliance a real question, the market is needing to price in some bearish risk potential. Especially given the recent extension that we've had. I believe that there is a real market deficit still, but this bearish risk is also very real.
I would be comfortable entering a short CL1 position until around $70, and reassessing before flipping long.
Of course, any significant news can change this view... all eyes on are OPEC
Fundamental Updates – OPEC+ United Once Again (19 July 2021)A compromised deal.
After a two-week stalemate in the discussion, the OPEC+ reconvened its meeting over the weekend. As part of a compromise, the oil-producing group has agreed for a raise in the production baseline for five members.
Oil production baseline increment in barrels-per-day (bpd)
Saudi Arabia: 500,000 bpd
Russia: 500,000 bpd
UAE: 332,000 bpd
Iraq: 150,000 bpd
Kuwait: 150,000 bpd
Although the baseline for the UAE has been raised, it falls short from the UAE’s initial request by 300,000 bpd. It was also revealed that Algeria and Nigeria have requested for an increase in their individual baselines.
With the issue of production baseline resolved, the OPEC+ had finalized a deal. Starting from August, there will be a hike in oil production by 400,000 bpd. Furthermore, the group has agreed to phase out the current 5.8 million bpd of oil production cut by September 2022.
Impact on oil prices.
Prior to this deal, the market believed that without a unanimous agreement, the OPEC+ will retain their current oil production quota. And since the OPEC+ is currently running on a supply deficit, the possibility of maintaining the current production quota led to the strengthening of oil prices. Now that the storm is over, a downward pressure has been placed on oil prices due to the increase in supply. This explains why oil prices started declining when the market kickstarted a new week earlier today.
Impact on the Canadian dollar.
As we know, there is a positive correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar (as oil prices rise, Canadian dollar tends to rise, vice-versa). In that sense, the Canadian dollar weakened as a result of the increase in oil supply by the OPEC+. This can be seen from the strengthening of USD/CAD and the weakening of CAD/JPY when the market opened earlier today.
USO - bearish double topOPEC + just agreed to increase output until 2022, Gasoline stockpiles build up more than expected EIA report July 13. Look for bear flag to form on 4 hour. PT .618 Fib level or 47.75. August - Usually refiners shutdown and that means build up of inventory. The only bullish case I see, if there are major hurricanes knocking out supply in Gulf of Mexico. I am in 8/20 $48 puts at 1.5, current 4000 OI. Good Luck this week!
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Move Started! Waiting For a Trigger 🛢️
Have you seen that huuuge red candle on WTI?
No doubt, the price reached a key monthly structure, and bears started to push.
In order to catch a swing move, keep monitoring a rising parallel channel.
For now, its support is the last resort for buyers to buy from.
Being broken, it will trigger a strong bearish move.
Next supports will be:
72.0
70.0
Remember, in case of an occasional bull breakout of a yellow zone,
setup will be invalid.
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USOIL, let's check the big perspective Today we will take a look at the weekly chart of USOIL. Here we will not analyze short-term movements; of course, we will be thinking about the possible paths we can see in the future for the commodity using several months as the main reference.
The price is getting close to a major resistance zone where we have observed huge bearish movements in the past—30% decline in July 2006 and a 45% decline in October 2018. However, we should also think about the idea that the price breaks this resistance zone. What should we do there?
If the price breaks the resistance zone, we have a clear scenario in the past that we can use as a reference (MAY 2010). The idea here is to wait for a clear breakout and then a retest of the resistance zone. We will have a clear correction to trade towards the next resistance zone at 110USD per barrel if that happens.
The main concept in this post is showing that one-sided analysis tends to fail because NOBODY knows what the price will make. However, we can get ready for two or three scenarios in the future and wait for those conditions to happen. And if your filters are not fulfilled, don't worry; you have more than 5000 assets on Tradingview to keep looking for great opportunities.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to share your view in the comments!
OIL - 100$ coming faster than anticipated? ⛽Opec meeting is on and increasing the production is on the agenda? Why? Well most likely increased demand.
But electric cars are the future. Yes they are but that doesn't mean the price now needs to go lower because of this fact. On the contrary possibly.
Chart shows price over major resistance and on support with potential to fly to the 100$ mark this summer.
Also: we probably need to add the factor of inflation in the mix.
What do you guys think?
the FXPROFESSOR
WTI: Weekly Forecast 20210627Oil prices continued to climb last week and managed to close near the high despite a consolidation which did cause a breakout of a rising structure.
It was climbing within a rising channel but was broken eventually after facing multiple rejections at 74.
However, a bearish trend was not even able to form and the price quickly rebounded off from the bottom of the consolidation and continued with forming higher lows.
This week, we will wait for a pullback towards 73.5 to go long again but keeping in mind that the upside could be limited as it's about to reach the equilibrium level at 76.6.
Oil Potential SetupOil completed 5 clear waves near 74.30 per barrel, wave % can still be extended thats why we will be watching out for a final leg up and not put tight stop loss.
the expected next move is a 3 waves pullbakc that might retrace back reaching 68$ per barrel as a first target.
if broken we will be looking into a deeper correction.