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Oil(wti)

Oil needs a supply cut or risk another deep diveIt is no surprise that Oil has had a rough couple of patches this year, with the Coronavirus shattering oil demand. What will it take for Oil to push back past $45? There has only been a couple of times where Oil has made strong moves to the upside, notably today and a couple of weeks ago when hurricanes approached the Gulf coast, forcing oil rigs to shut down and restricting supply. Any good demand hopes have been thwarted by what people can see with their eyes. Sure, investors and traders and see oil inventories are declining. However, they can still see the Coronavirus weighing down on demand. More importantly, the election is more or less a week away, and one of the markets that will get scrutinized the most is Oil. It's the common opinion that if Trump is re-elected, Oil and the initial price movement would most likely be to the upside. However, if Biden is elected, this would be bad for Oil, and the initial price movement would be to the downside. However, is that the case? Financial Times did an excellent summary of what the future holds for Oil if either candidate gets in. Biden · Fixing the Iran Nuclear deal, freeing up more barrels of Oil from Opec members for export (i.e., an increase in supply) · A $2 Trillion push for renewable energy and infrastructure to reach 'net zero' emissions by 2050 · Ban on Fracking on federal land · Proposed new drilling limits on Fracking Trump · Withdrawal from price Climate Agreement · Supports regulation for the fossil fuel industry · Close relationship with Saudi Arabia The consensus on the street is that Oil will fall on a Biden win. Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects stated that " is going to focus on Iran, so a Biden win is bearish for oil prices immediately". Furthermore, Amy Jaffe, an energy policy expert and professor at Tufts University, stated that "A Biden Victoria will be a shot in the arm for oil competitors, putting the federal government's weight behind the energy transitions and low-carbon technologies". However, a Biden win is the least of Oil's problems. As Amy put it, "Tougher milage don't mean much if people cant afford a new car." In the longer term, how will Oil fair with a Biden presidency? A push to greener energy sources would restrict the use of fossil fuels. The Biden presidency may do this by limiting further exploration of deposits / making it more expensive. This increases the cost of research and development, in which buyers will ultimately have to pay the price through an increase in oil prices. This would make the opportunity cost of using greener, more expensive energy alternatives like solar. However, there will be a point where greener energy investment alongside increasing fossil fuel prices will make the greener alternative more desirable. Sure, oil prices will be relatively higher – however, demand will slowly plateau. Bob Mcnally, a former adviser to US President George W Bush and analyst at Rapidan Energy that a Biden win may see a boost in crude in the long term on the idea that Biden "will push for a policy that prohibits / limits exploration for new oil." A Trump win should see a practical trajectory for Oil. An initial upside on his victory, with support for Fracking alongside the delaying for the impasse of greener energy and Oil, talked about above. Are you looking at Oil?
TVC:USOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Technical Outlook a lot of questions about OIL. on a daily the price is currently consolidating within a wide horizontal trading range. 41.0 - 41.5 is its resistance 36.1 - 37.0 is its support while the price within a consolidating range, we expect bullish movements from its support and bearish from its resistance. for now, I remain bearish biased. for intraday trading also consider a falling trend line, while the market is above that, it serves as the resort for buyers to buy from. in case of its bearish breakout, it will serve as a local resistance to sell from. at some moment the consolidation range will be broken either to the upside or to the downside. daily candle violations of its boundaries will show us the future market direction.
FX:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
25
WTI: just some considerations (4H)Hi Guys, XABC are the moves unfolded since 2 Sept. inside the violet circle in the daily snapshot below: It looks like an Harmonic Pattern/W-Formation supported at 36.(280), the same level it was when WHO declared pandemic emergency status on 11 March. The divergence in RSI between S2 and S3 is not as evident as it is in the daily chart but was enough to boost the pullback from 36.(280)(C). Is the pullback from C exausted itself already? The move from C was stopped at B (previous high made on 18 Sept.) but never reached bullish momentum (not overbought) as it did the move from A (overbought). After C price was pushed down at B right after OPEC published World Oil Outlook 2045 and said "The Worst Is Over" for the Oil Market. Why? Here the monthly view which I hope may help to improve the perspective. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
Recovery in Trump health supporting Crude pricesLast week, WTI Crude prices ended lower by 8 percent as worries over second wave of the covid-19 virus clouded the demand prospects for Crude. Resurgence of the covid-19 virus is a major setback for the already shackled Oil market. Alarming increase in Covid-19 cases raised worries over reinforcement of lockdown in major economies which undermined the outlook for Crude. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is also reluctant to increase Oil production from January 2021 in an attempt to counter the weak demand. Moreover, rising exports from Libya and Iran despite the production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) also weighed on the prices. However, hopes of further stimulus infusion by the U.S. as the democrats and the white house officials work on striking a deal limited the fall in Crude prices. Recovery in President Donald Trump’s health after being tested positive might support Oil prices; however, bleak economic outlook reflecting the resurgence of covid-19 virus undermined the outlook for Crude. Suggestion: BUY CRUDE FROM 37.65-60 SL BELOW 36.20 TGT 39/39.40 ELSE SELL BELOW 36 SL ABV 37.70 TGT 34.50/34
TVC:USOILLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Daily Time Frame Analysis hey guys, I know that many of you are struggling with making long-term predictions on wti. being fundamental trader or technician, the future right now is unknown. the only thing that we must admit for now is that the market is currently consolidating. we broke below the uptrend parabolic channel and now we are trading within a wide horizontal daily range. in my view, a breakout of that range will show the future direction of the market. I remain bearish biased and stick to a bearish scenario. second corona wave at least in europe looks unavoidable. but we will see! share in the comment section what you think will happen!
FX:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
RidetheMacro| USDRUB Macro Outlook Commentary📌 macro financial level, COVID continues to be having a misplaced lasting effect among nations with locations like France and different European nations being hit once more with a 2nd wave. These unsure black swan activities make it very tough to give you alternate thoughts due to the fact any 2nd the important authority or authorities can intrude with the loose markets. 📍 Now, the IMF have made a forecast recent months that America will keep growing favorably in evaluation the Russia. However, those predictions are very unstable within side the present day weather because of COVID. It’s essential to hold a watch in this forecast as they may alternate if new records comes out signaling contrary convictions. E.g. if COVID receives worse within side the United States it’s not going they’ll develop quicker than Russia, particularly thinking about there’s a few hypothesis that 📍 Russia Exxon Mobil is a massive oil company in United States and there’s a inverse relationship between oil and the USD. Generally commodities will have an inverse relationship to the USD so there’s no surprise here that there’s an inverse relationship between Exxon and USDRUB. When Exxon goes down USD seems to rise. CURRENTLY Exxon (With Orange line) so there’s room to move up which could see USDRUB (with purple color line) fall in value, especially if the Untied States continue to open up its economy which will get people buying petrol, exporting more oil and factories using oil has advanced an early vaccine for COVID which can assist improve the economy and better economy Ahead. ✅ Exxon Vs USDRUB Chart Below 📊 📍 2nd we also want to see how the crude version impacts USDRUB. Since the 2000 we have VERY interesting statistics. That being there’s a 91% negative correlation between oil and USDRUB. Again, we’re data driven and reinforce that saying that oil has an inverse relationship with USD value. ✅ WTI Vs USDRUB Chart Below 📊 📍 3rd The final factor is the S&P500 priced in RUB to how wealthy America is compared to Russia. Because majority of peoples pensions are held within their country of residence stock index. Right Now S&P 500 dropping well day by day. so investors is long USD to protect against deflation in the S&P500 assets. ✅S&P 500 VS USDRUB Chart Below 📊 Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! 🤝 Until next time, Ride the macro
Short
by Ridethemacro
2
Trade Idea and Full Explanation on USOILWe will analyze the short trade we are planning to take on USOIL. Please read the entire post if you want to have the full idea of what we are doing here. REVERSAL SITUATION: The price has reached a significant Resistance zone and broke the bullish compression CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE: Now, after the bearish movement from the resistance zone, we can see a corrective structure. This type of structure is formed by an ABC pattern and moves sideways. Check the yellow arrows, all of them are examples of previous bearish corrective structures, and we will see the resolutions of them to use them as a model to trade the current one. TARGET and STOP: Our Target is the next support/resistance zone. There we will close our positions. Our stop is above the corrective structure. There we will assume that our view was incorrect. ENTRY: We will wait for the same behavior as all the previous corrections. Check the images Based on that, we will wait for 1H candlestick to reach the lower trendline of the corrective structure and corrects it there. After that, we will set our entry-level below that correction. RISK AND RATIO: The risk Reward Ratio we are aiming at this trade is 2, meaning that we are willing to win twice of what we are willing to risk. We will take a 1% risk on this trade As a final idea, it is essential to understand that profitability on trading comes from creating a statistical advantage over a certain amount of trades. To do that, you need the correct relation between your Hit Rate (how many times you are right) and your Average Risk Reward Ratio. CANCELATION: When we develop an entry, we must be ready for a cancelation of the setup. Meaning that the price didn't move as expected, and the price didn't trigger our entry. There we will be ready to cancel our setup and start from 0 with a new analysis
TVC:USOILShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
WTI OIL SET FOR DUMP TO 35$After being short on this asset class for the whole week, due to a bearish stance on global demand, over supply, a tremendous rally presenting over bought conditions & doubtfulness in global trade agreements, after witnessing a clean break of the ascending trend line last week I increased my position sizing, with the negative crude inventory data released yesterday and a manipulative push upwards I added an additional short at 1H resistance zone (41$). I will be scaling in further positions towards my targets providing we break the highlighted support zones.
TVC:USOILShort
by LiamsAnalysis
WTI US Oil clearly retracing back Since 6 March 2020 when the level been broken heavily NOW, its been under test !! which is opportunity for shorting for small journey. So the plan: * 20 Jun candle will be the point our point planning entry, any clear bearish candle with be my confirmation after retest back level 40-39 $ * SL will be 41.80 Two levels will be interested: 1- TP = 33 2- TP = 31 To break the above resistance it need naturally break the fear and push from below strongly to go beyond 40s and above for the long run. So we will set for longs at level of TP2 for our next trade :)) and it may go tell 30-27 $, but TP 1 & TP 2 is more than enough. Lets see & Lets watch. All the best
FX:USOILShort
by FM-Alkatheeri
1