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Oil(wti)

#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 72.631 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, I am still hoping for a downward movement, it's just that I have revised the wave formation because the price has gone quite high. At the moment, I believe that the price is now completing the movement in the senior wave "2". After reaching the resistance area of 84.00 - 85.00, I expect the beginning of the big wave "3"! Therefore, I suggest to take what happened as an opportunity to enter a short position in the most profitable way! Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
28
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future: 1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India. 2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines. 3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases. 5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases. ### Conclusion Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cryptowormshot
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 72.631 (Wave 5).Dear Colleagues, as in the last forecast I assume that the price was moving in wave “4” and is currently completing this wave. I expect the wave to start downward movement and reach the support area (minimum of wave “3”) at 72.631. Because this movement will be the development of wave “5” in the ending diagonal. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
10
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. comment: After Monday there was no question that bulls took control again and the bear trend is over. Bears now fight to keep this a lower high and retest the 72.48 low but for now, market is in balance around 78. Bulls want to break out of the bear channel and test 80 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 72-79 bull case: Strong week by the bulls with 3 pushes up but still a lower high. Their next target is to get back above 80.22. Right now they have momentum going but big down, big up mostly creates confusion and that means trading range. Above 79.5 I will probably long for 80. They need to stay above 77 or odds favor a retest of the lows below 74. Invalidation is below 77. bear case: Huge bear surprise the week before and now a big bull surprise. Most reasonable thing here is for the market to move more sideways, probably still inside the very big triangle 73 - 81.5. If bears get below 77, they want to retest the lows below 74, which is also what I think has the slightly better odds next week but I would wait for confirmation. Invalidation is above 80.6. outlook last week: “Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. I will watch the price action and give daily updates here on substack and intraday in my trading room.” → Last Sunday we traded 75.53 and now we are at 78.45. I said we will hit the daily 20ema which was 140 upwards. On Monday there was no question we will get there, so I hope you made some. Did not expect bears to just disappear afterwards and let the market trade above for the whole week. short term: Neutral right under the bear channel line and daily ema at 77.5. Can break to either side. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. —unchanged current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted both two-legged corrections to fit the current pattern better but the C target is very questionable as of now. We need more price action to know where market wants to go from here.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long, correction to the area of 76.326.Dear colleagues, I have analyzed for a long time and came to the conclusion that the price will probably continue to decline, but at the moment I see that wave “3” is not formed yet, and therefore wave “4” is not formed either. Therefore, I expect a correction to the area of 76.326, but it is desirable that the price does not reach the level of 76.50, because this is the minimum of wave “1”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by Hellena_Trade
10
WTI rises to test key resistanceCrude oil prices rose on Monday, making back its losses from Friday and some. While there is hope for increased fuel demand as we head to the summer months, today’s recovery comes on the back of a three-week drop. Prices have been held back in recent weeks because of various factors, ranging from concerns over increased non-OPEC supply and worries about the demand outlook, due, among other reasons, to diminished hopes over imminent US interest rate cuts. The strong dollar recovery is also weighing on sentiment in the oil market. But with prices shedding more than 10% from their April highs, the bulls feel the downside could be more limited moving forward. However, a revisit of last week’s lows of around $72.50 on WTI remains the more probable outcome than a sharp recovery. Key macro events in this week include US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, both of which could significantly impact the US dollar and, consequently, buck-denominated commodities like gold and oil. Oil prices closed off well off the lows last week The crude oil selling resumed on Friday after a two-day pause. While the losses were milder than earlier in the week and less severe than the drop in metals, this was due to a strong jobs report and positive services PMI data that alleviated fears of weakening demand in the US. Nonetheless, concerns over China persisted, leading to lower prices for the week. Investors were also spooked by the sell-off in other commodities like copper and silver. The selling on oil was also driven by speculative long positions being pared last week by managed funds and large speculators. Not only that but they also increased their short positions last week, resulting in a decrease in net-long exposure. According to positioning data from the CFTC, managed funds increased their short positions by 27.2k contracts, while large speculators increased theirs by 22.1k contracts (21.9%). This positioning data reflects the market response to OPEC's decision to extend oil production cuts. It suggests that traders either anticipated more aggressive support for prices from OPEC, are concerned about declining demand due to a slowing economy, or likely a combination of both factors. Why did all major commodities fall on Friday? The sharp fall in major commodity prices on Friday was driven by a rally in the US dollar, which negatively impacts dollar-denominated commodities. This rally was triggered by stronger-than-expected jobs growth, even though part-time jobs contributed to this increase. Metals were already under pressure prior to the jobs report due to concerns over lower-than-expected Chinese demand for industrial metals and rising copper stockpiles. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China halting its gold purchases in May after an 18-month streak also pressured precious metals, contributing to bearish sentiment in the commodities market. What has been driving oil prices recently? Oil prices have been primarily driven lower by demand concerns and an increase in non-OPEC supply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there is a significant surplus of oil this year, largely due to the growth in US shale production. Consistently weak manufacturing data worldwide has heightened demand concerns. This was particularly evident when crude oil prices dropped to their lowest level since February following weak US factory data. The OPEC+ decision to extend output cuts failed to support oil prices as it was already priced in, and there are worries about phasing out voluntary output cuts amid rising non-OPEC supply. However, with the US driving season underway, demand might pick up, potentially slowing or reversing the sell-off. Currently, no strong bullish reversal signs have been observed, however, which means the short-term path pf least resistance on oil remains to the downside. Crude Oil Technical Analysis The recent drop in oil prices has established a clear resistance level between $76.00 and $76.50 on WTI, which was tested and held on Friday. This will be a crucial resistance area to monitor in the coming week. As long as prices remain below this zone, the bearish trend is expected to continue. There was an oversold bounce last week, but a decline towards the support trend of the bearish channel, around the $73.00 mark or slightly below, is possible this week. WTI has been stuck in a bearish channel since peaking in April. The next major support level below the bearish channel is at $70.00, followed by the December low at $67.87. However, if WTI were to reclaim the old broken support area between $76.00 and $76.50, it could signal a bullish trend, potentially leading to technical buying towards the top of the bearish channel, between $78.00 and $79.00. Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com Follow me on twitter: x.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
OIL: After death of Iran's President The recent death of Iran's President might initially impact oil prices due to concerns about Middle East instability. However, this effect is likely to be temporary for several reasons: Limited Presidential Power: In Iran, the President's role is more executive, with real power concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, the President's death does not signify a major shift in governance or policy direction. Supreme Leader's Influence: The President, including the late Ibrahim Raisi, is essentially elected by the Supreme Leader. This ensures continuity in Iran's political landscape, reducing the likelihood of significant instability. Market Realization: Any initial market reaction based on fears of instability is expected to be short-lived. As the market realizes that the Supreme Leader's authority remains unchanged, confidence should return, stabilizing oil prices. In summary, while there may be an initial reaction in the oil market, it is unlikely to result in long-term chaos or a significant deviation from the current market direction.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by AliSignals
Oil setting itself up for a rebound after six days of sellingAmid a quick change in the market sentiment in mid-April 2024 and subsequent weakness in stocks, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (USOIL) retreated from its highs to $78 per barrel. In the process, USOIL broke below the lower bound of the ascending channel, and the daily time frame turned bearish, with MACD crossing below the midpoint, Stochastic falling into the lower area, and RSI approaching 30 points. The weekly time frame also turned slightly bearish, with MACD, Stochastic, and RSI reversing; nevertheless, it must be noted that MACD remains in the bullish zone, and ADX contains a relatively low value, hinting at a neutral or very weak trend on the medium time frame. As for the monthly time frame, technicals indicate a sideways-moving market as well. From a bigger perspective, USOIL appears in the range that has been under development since early 2023, defined by roughly $83 on the top and $70 on the bottom. In the smaller picture, USOIL experienced a decline of approximately 11% just within the past six trading sessions, potentially setting it up for a rebound; should it occur, close attention will be paid to the resistance level at $79.72, which has acted as a barrier on multiple occasions throughout the past half year. In the event of a failure, the attention will be shifted to the support at $76.82 and $75.56, where buying interest might emerge. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the channel. Illustration 1.02 The illustration above depicts the daily graph of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights a crossover through the midpoint, normally a bearish development. Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish (weak trend) Monthly time frame = Neutral OPEC’s workshop As a result of the directives of the OPEC’s meeting held on 3rd April 2024, member countries with outstanding overproduced volumes were required to submit detailed compensation plans by 30th April 2024. In accordance with that, OPEC held a workshop on 3rd May 2024 to share compensation plans for Iraq and Kazakhstan for their outstanding overproduced volumes for the months of January, February, and March 2024, which totaled about 602,000 barrels per day for Iraq and 389,000 barrels per day for Kazakhstan. Houthi’s aggression Yemen's Houthi attacks on commercial shipping are escalating and spreading beyond the confines of the Red Sea. After the targeting of the MSC Orion on 26th April 2024, positioned 600 kilometers (375 miles) off Yemen's coast, another assault occurred merely two days later, on 29th April 2024, hitting the ship Cyclades near Mokha, Yemen. This increasing aggression highlights the region's growing instability, compounded by the United States and its allies' failure to curb the situation through airstrikes on Yemeni targets earlier this year. Hamas-Israel negotiations After months of stalled negotiations, Hamas representatives arrived in Cairo, Egypt, over the weekend for another round of ceasefire talks with Israel. Major media outlets reported that a truce is closer than ever before. Nonetheless, significant hurdles remain beneath the surface as both sides hesitate to make concessions. Hamas is adamant about the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and obtaining a guarantee from the United States that Israel will not launch a ground invasion of Rafah. Meanwhile, Israel maintains its stance that it will proceed with the invasion regardless. In addition to that, Israel’s hawks are vocal that even if a ceasefire deal is reached, it will not mark the end of the war. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
2
Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral) Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello, My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside. At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go. The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines. Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY. - R2F
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Road_2_Funded
2