Oil(wti)
SELL WTIUS crude oil inventories decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week more than expected, which supported the current rally albeit OPEC meeting tomorrow may disappoint oil market if it failed to cut production more than the markets expects, if it preferred to extend the cut agreement only I think prices would drop sharply as usual during past meetings. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year, the shale oil production would cap any rally so it will be short lived.
cl, oil, day trading for Dec 4thoil is currently trading in a transition zone between two recent distributions and will have to make a choice between one or the other. if oil breaks from the red zone today then the first blue support or resistance will be a very likely target for either break.
I will be looking to trade a range day inside the red zone until a firm break of this zone is established.
oil, cl, day trading for Dec 2ndAfter a big down move on Friday we got some retrace back up, but is comes with no consensus so will still be watching for teh traders commitment to direction, I am looking at things with I guess 2 over / under lines one at 57.07 and the other at 54.85 and as normal the opening red break zone. How e act at all these levels will be the information i will need to make a day trade decision.
WTI Oil: Medium term Buy opportunity.Oil took a hard hit last Friday towards the 54.85 1D Support. Technically this makes a perfect Higher Low on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 47.115, MACD = 0.310, ADX = 20.203, Highs/Lows = -0.4050). On top of that the 4H RSI is on the lowest level since early August, so we are taking this as a strong medium term buy opportunity. Our Target Zone is 58.00 - 58.70 (region within the 4H gap fill and 1D Resistance).
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Crude OIL longs have held, next stop back above $58.50!Crude oil manages to come back to a key support level and rotates well. The $57.90-58.05 area held really well and the long extended wicks on the candles suggest a strong buy sentiment is protecting the upside.
The buyers are coming in on strong volume and we expect price to move back to the resistance level at $58.50 first and then through the $59.00 level.
The support we identified also comes into confluence with the volume profile edge support for the month of November.
Price needs to stay above $58.00 should the longs hold this level, below $57.85 this trade is losing steam, we have no seen a candle close under that level to end the week.
CRUDE OIL BULLISH CONTINUATIONHey everyone!
Wanted to make an update on crude oil.
If any of you viewing this idea follow me, you should be aware of my previous post on Oct 22nd. Nothing really changed since then, trade is going as planned.
Take a look at that weekly bounce of green supply zone :) bullish continuation expected on weekly basis.
For those that didn't take previous trade and didn't open longs in greenish box, purple box is zone of interest to open longs again. (Not saying that market will offer us that chance, but if it does, bulls should step in.)
This is not a financial advise. Let me know what you think!
WTI Hit 61.8 % FiboUSOil already hit 61.8 % fibonacci retracement @ 58.59
this level should push price to continue bearish original trend
bearish signal will be confirmed when mirror level broken @ 58.00
Volume Profile shows that price should visit again HVN area
RSI shows that price already in overbought area
6-month crude oil outlook bearish for now, but watch the dollarOil has been in a nice uptrend along a pretty consistent trend line, but eventually I expect it to break out downward.
The EIA predicts an average WTI price of 54.60 next year, with the lowest prices in the first half of the year. US crude inventories have been increasing lately, and should continue to rise. According to the EIA, US crude inventories will continue to increase early in the year, and then will fall in the second half of the year. As inventories gain, prices should fall.
Futures traders are a little more optimistic than the EIA for the front half of 2020, but more pessimistic than the EIA for the back half. An analysis published today at SeekingAlpha titled "Crude Oil: Inventory-Price Modelling Implications For 2020" illustrates how inventories explain about 75% of the variance in oil prices, and inventory forecasts imply a price of about $45 per barrel next September.
Of course, major changes in oil supply due to geopolitical insecurity (e.g. war in Iran or instability in Venezuela) could change the outlook by reducing inventories and driving up prices. Global recession, meanwhile, could change the outlook by reducing demand, increasing inventories, and driving prices down.
Another thing that could change the outlook is the strength or weakness of the dollar. Right now, the US economy is widely expected to grow slower than the global economy in 2020. If the US economy grows faster than expected relative to the global economy, then the dollar could continue to strengthen and oil prices should fall. If the US economy grows slower relative to global growth, the dollar could weaken and oil prices should rise. Similarly, the Fed has been trying to weaken the dollar, so far without a great deal of success. If and when Fed policy finally succeeds at forcing a breakdown in the dollar, oil prices should rise.
Here's the triangle I'm watching on the dollar to see the effect of Fed policies:
But barring a dollar breakdown or a major geopolitical event, I expect oil to eventually fall out of its upward trend.