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Oil(wti)

Oil to bounce to test $94I think oil will now bounce to test $94. I'm short term bullish; medium term bearish. Oil took a hard dive "low liquidity run" through the previous swing-low which was taken out. The next swing-low is $77-ish. But we are hitting 20 week MA and prior old highs at the same time. Thus the slow stochastic weekly losing embedded (was above 80 now falling below 80) means a run to the 20week MA was likely. The next few days will show whether or not this confluence of old highs and 20week is strong enough to arrest oil's fall towad the liquidity pool (swing low) of $77. My trade has been to open longs using credit-puts below that $77 level where there should be much stronger resistance than the confluence already mentioned. Counter thesis is that the price cheese-knife's toward the $77 liq pool which could accelerate a sell-off. 20 Week is the "hold the line" for the trade.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DarthTrader1357
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon BeginsThe oil markets have been something of a puzzle to everyone on account of the fact that they range sideways for long periods of time, move a little bit, decapitate one side of the market, and then range again. One thing I've been sure of is that after doing $120 post-Ukraine War, and after WTI literally hitting $0.00 ( $-40 settlements lol) this certainly was not the top. And yet the problem is, this retrace has gone on for too long, with any and every rally increasingly being melted away and melted away. So it's not bullish, either. There's major geopolitical problems right now. One for the oil long is that because Russian oil is banned from the market by the International Rules Based Order, it doesn't mean that demand increased for futures-traded oil. Like, futures oil is primarily the United States' domain, and you know the leftists in Washington are short hard on oil because they sold off the SPR. How it works is you ban Russian oil from the futures controlled markets. The catch is that Russia still sells oil and sellers always have buyers. It means Russia sells at a discount or sells in exchange for rupees and yuan instead of petrodollars. Which means that demand from smaller countries and even bigger producers moves away from futures-traded oil and into Russia's pockets, which ultimately drives the price of commodities down. Geopolitically, because of the problems between Mainland China, its current ruler Xi Jinping, and the IRBO who operates via Taiwan as a proxy, anything can happen at any time. China is the biggest wildcard in the world because it's the only 5,000 year old country, has an enormous population with exceptional natural resources, and is ruled by a Communist Party that has become exceedingly inferior and weak. What this means is that the CCP can either fall or be overthrown literally any day. You won't hear it's going to happen days before on CNN and from The Washington Post. It will happen during Beijing business hours, which means the middle of the night in Manhattan. And if Xi is smart, he'll throw the Party away himself and weaponize the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa in order to protect himself and the country from "War With Taiwan," which really and always has meant the IRBO trying to take control of China via Taiwan Ukraine Maidan Revolution-style. Since this event is in the cards, if it unfolds, it means we'll see $200 oil and in a big hurry. Really, in a big hurry. But before this happens, it only makes sense to melt down all the early longs and liquidate some funds first. I have an open call on Taiwan Semiconductor where I believe this company, because of the Taiwan situation, is a super strong long hedge in the upcoming markets: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So, here's the call. All we have to do is look at the yearly candles and we can see that last year's price action was something of a yearly wick play. And so if we take this logic and we expect that after taking the high wicks, the low wicks are next, we wind up with some clarity on a set of monthly candles that is otherwise nigh indiscernible. Unfortunately for bulls, that means we're looking at prices that start with a 3-handle. Nobody ever believes it when you make a call like this, unless it happens to unfold right away. And while these markets might manifest in a faster way in the coming months, oil is still something of a landslide down and tractor pull up kind of market maker who employs sharp shakeouts along the way. Here's the thing: The OPEC production cut news in April was a canary in the coalmine, only because the rally was clearly a stop raid and failed. The May dump afterwards was a bearish harbinger of doom. It confirms the market makers are seeking continuously lower prices on higher time frames. On monthly bars and with recent price action, the $62~ level is supposed to be "support." But this support is likely to be broken if this rally fails. I believe this rally will certainly fail and we are about to have an extremely significant optimal short entry at roughly $79. If the theory is true, see how fast $61 comes. And after $61 is broken, perhaps it will actually be a breakaway runaway. If that really happens, then the targets are 3-handles in the $34 and $36 range. You better believe it.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by LordWrymouth
15
USOIL/XTIUSD SHORT/SELL🔰 Pair Name : XTIUSD 🔰 Time Frame : 4hrs/ Daily 🔰 Scale Type : Long Scale 🔰 Direction : Short/ Sell 📈🛢️ Comprehensive USOIL Analysis Update: 📊📉 📉 Downtrend Break and Retest: USOIL has successfully breached its weekly downtrend line, signaling a notable shift in momentum. As we undergo the retest phase, remember that the market remains within a promising new uptrend, particularly from a fundamental perspective. 📈🛢️🔄 💡 Fundamental Considerations: Last week's release of Chinese inflation data casts a shadow on the pace of China's post-pandemic recovery. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY saw a decline of 0.3% in July, indicating deflation within China. Given that China is a pivotal oil consumer globally, this scenario applies downward pressure on WTI prices. 📉🇨🇳 ⛓ Supply Dynamics: Counterbalancing this, we observe supply constraints that could further elevate WTI prices. Saudi Arabia's decision to extend its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) through September, coupled with Russia's planned reduction of oil exports by 300,000 bpd for September, contributes to the supply-side equation. ⛽📉 🌐 OPEC and EIA Insights: Both the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are optimistic about the global energy market in H2 2023. This sentiment is rooted in several drivers, including heightened summer air travel, increased oil demand for power generation, and rising petrochemical activity in China. The IEA anticipates a robust 2.2 million bpd demand growth in 2023, while OPEC forecasts a significant 2.44 million bpd production increase. 📊🌍 📊 Economic Growth and Revised Projections: A positive undercurrent also emerges in the global economic landscape, with OPEC revising its global economic growth forecast to 2.7% (from 2.6%). This adjustment is driven by impressive growth in the United States, Brazil, and Russia during the first half of 2023, exceeding initial estimates. OPEC's outlook for the following year stands at 2.6%. 📈💼📉 As you navigate these dynamic market dynamics, remember to implement robust risk management strategies and align your decisions with a well-structured trading plan. The interplay of factors makes for an intriguing landscape, and informed execution remains paramount.
TVC:USOILShort
by Moon_SmartMoney
3
WTICOUSD: Triple Bullish Divergence at Bullish Bat PCZWe have a Triple MACD Bullish Divergence at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat that happens to align with the 200-Week SMA and the 800-Week EMA. I have generally been bearish on this chart since the highs back in 2022: but the persistence it's shown at this Harmonic and Technical level of confluence makes it hard to ignore the potential for at least a 50% move up back to the level of $100. The 1.618 is at the level of $96.13 but usually if price gets that close to $100, the asset ends up hitting $100, so my target will be $100. I do think that after it hits the level of $100, it will likely come back down and continue the bearish trend all the way down to even $10, but in the meantime, it looks like there is a decent chance of a short-term rally, which in this case happens to be about a 50% move up from the current level.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by RizeSenpai
WTI OIL Double Top rejection or break-out?WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit today 83.50 (Resistance 1), which was the April 12 High that caused a rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 is now long broken, so any 1D candle close above Resistance 1 will be a bullish break-out targeting Resistance 2. In that case we will buy and target 93.00. Until it breaks though, especially after an initial bearish warning shot on the 1D RSI that broke below its MA trend-line from overbought levels, it is very likely today's test to end with a price rejection towards 74.00 (Support 1). In that case, we will wait for the most optimal bearish confirmation by the 1D MACD and sell after a Bearish Cross and a rejection on the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). Our target will be 74.00 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
4