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OIL-COPPER

Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 29/03European markets gapped up and then saw a slow grind lower while the US could not take out the previous sessions highs and also moved lower into the close. The US was weighed down by big tech as inflation and rate rises are again the main focus. US Bond yields continued to press higher which weighed on tech stocks and the overall broader market. Elevated Consumer Confidence levels gave the market some confidence as the banking crisis starts to fade to the background for now. Asian markets are expected to open mixed with the ASX200 set to open down 25 points, the Nikkei set to open flat and the Hang Seng to open up over 300 points after a strong overnight session. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed as they potentially come to the end of a rate rise cycle. The Fed will need to see hard evidence that inflation is coming under control first. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 28/03European markets bounced back to finish higher and provide a stronger start to the US session. The US was mixed with the DOW higher while Tech was lower as traders now re-focus on inflation and higher interest rates. This can be seen through support into the USD and higher US Bond yields. As the banking crisis takes a backseat in the news, I expect traders will again be dealing with the prospects of further rate rises and may punish risk assets. Asian markets are expected to open slightly stronger with the ASX200 and Nikkei to open up while the Hang Seng may open flat and find further selling pressure after yesterdays choppy trading day. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed with the lingering concerns for the banking sector. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 27/03European markets were sold lower again on the back of banking fears and look ready to be pressured again at the start of the new week. The US opened weaker to follow on from Europe but found an intraday low and rallied into the close to brush aside the earlier weakness. The USD is back moving higher after breaking the recent downtrend leaving Gold to find some selling pressure and move lower. Copper is finding buyers while Oil fended off more selling pressure and is looking for a move higher. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it is now a balancing act for the Fed with the concerns for the Regional US Banks leading many to expect an interest rate pause. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 10/03A review of the price action from the European session and the US session. Major indexes again took a big hit lower in a risk off move ahead of the Key US data release on employment. Investors feel it is hard to take up the slack of higher prices when labour market is at capacity and the consumer becomes more reluctant to spend. Inflation and rate rise expectations kept the major indexes under pressure. The USD edged lower while US short term bond prices moved higher. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue and will weigh on share markets if the Fed, and other major central banks, can not get it under control....this all points to more 'risk off' into major share markets. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 9/03A review of the price action from the European session and the US session. Major indexes were generally range bound to mildly higher. Inflation and rate rise expectations kept the major indexes under pressure with the focus now on the major US employment data release. The USD held onto the recent gains while US bonds held onto the recent lows. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue and will weigh on share markets if the Fed, and other major central banks, can not get it under control. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
CBOT:ZT1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 3/03A review of the price action from the European session and US sessions which gave us some choppy price action but generally bullish from a weak open both in Europe and the US. To me, markets remain under pressure but bulls continue to provide support on pullbacks. There is no fear driven selloff which shows that bargain hunters still believe in a longer term move up. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Traditional market analysis 18/06/2021 #4The reflation trade seems to be over although there is still some hope. The FOMC meeting seems to have been the catalyst to confirm the end, but that reversal was brewing for quite some time. We had excess speculation, we had people truly believe this wasn't transitory... and we might get some persistent inflation due to supply constraints, but this isn't due to demand being high. Bitcoin & Crypto reversed months ago and that was the first sign of weakness. Bonds have bottomed for quite some time and Inflation expectations have also started rolling over. They seemed to have been in the same cyclical pattern as they were in 2008-2010 and nothing more than that. Of course this could continue for another year mainly due to oil going higher, as I am still bullish on it given the supply constraints and how good the chart looks like. Oil alone going higher doesn't mean we have true reflation, but some demand coming back and not enough supply which might take 1-2 years to get back. 63-67 Seems strong support for oil. Bonds have had a very clear reversal and a very clear bottom and now they have formed a mini uptrend. I don't believe yields will fully crash or that we are going below zero soon, but I also don't believe they will go way lower soon. Usually when we get such a top like the one we go in March 2020 things don't come back super strong (look at UB & TLT), especially as we are closer to the 0 bound. Currently this looks like another typical correction for bonds... so if they keep going higher the hopes for inflation get crushed. And that's normal because the world is drowning in debt and soon people will have to start paying back their debts as things are re-opening. However the problem is that the economies are not in a good shape and the covid shock isn't one that can be ignored. The damage has been huge. Bonds & USD going higher isn't a good sign, especially as the USD seems to be breaking out. It has now closed above the 200 DMA for the second time and not only that, but for example when looking at GBPUSD we see a clear breakdown for the GBP. Until it breaks 1.43 this could be a pretty bearish signal. Maybe this move is an overreaction and nothing happens, but we need to be aware that certain trends are showing weakness and it is better to wait before stepping in. Now stocks aren't in such a bad state, at least not yet. I am worried a bit that this very low volatility + some other catalyst could send them much lower. Maybe Tech stocks are the ones that benefit the most from lower yields, but smaller stocks could suffer. Nasdaq still looking strong and during such a period it could benefit the most if the rest don't have a mega crash. If everything crashes, then I would expect it to roll over too. Metals like Copper and Silver have also dropped a lot, but it isn't over for them. They are at support, but if the USD keeps going up along with bonds they might suffer more because real rates will be going higher again. The truth is that the current move have been pretty large on FX and Metals so we might take a break here. After that we can re-evaluate what is going to happen. Stocks are still in a large bullish trend at least in the long term but if everything else has reversed I think stocks will eventually be affected. Now when it comes to Central banks, their moves will be such to test the market, potentially cause a correction and then they buy the dip. Essentially this is what they've been doing willingly or unwillingly. They can't really raise rates with debt levels so high but they are bluffing. They are essentially trying to manage expectations and actually claim they tamed inflation, when the inflationary trend (reflation) was already reversing. People believe they are so powerful and they know what they are doing... but they really don't. It isn't QE or their actions that create results, but people actually believe that they are powerful. The Fed is in the business of managing expectations, not money. s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com
FX:NAS100
by BitcoinMacro
1
Are we entering a commodity super-cycle?Definition of a commodity super-cycle: Commodity super cycles are decade-long periods in which commodities trade above their long-term price trend. Technical Analysis: Using a weekly candlestick to see the bigger picture. DBC is breaking out of a 10 year long downtrend. On Balance Volume is supportive, as it is also breaking higher, reaching levels from a decade before. We are breaking and testing $18.5, which is a very long-term resistance; now potentially turning into support. This is a long-term setup. R1, R2 and R3 are potential targets to take some profits. Fundamental factors: Weakening dollar Supportive central banks Fiscal stimulus geared for infrastructure spending Pent-up demand once as global economies re-open. Government and private companies increasingly pledging carbon reduction measures. Inflation ticking higher, as the Fed is taking a new approach of waiting, rather than anticipating, as it has done in the past.
AMEX:DBCLong
by dorfmanmaster
Commodities Uptrend Incoming? | CRB Commodity Index ($TRJEFFCRB)✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- Commodities have rallied into resistance. We are currently looking for a pullback to the last support range. To chart this we are looking at the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Commodity Index (TRJEFFCRB), which is an index comprised of 19 commodities: aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, Lean Hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas, and wheat. For those who want to trade the price action, one could take a position with Commodities ETFs like Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) and First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strat ETF (FTGC). With that said, we aren't trading this one, we are just looking at levels. Although the trend is still bearish overall, it is interesting to see commodities trending up to resistance as money is being created by central banks. It is a longstanding economic theory that inflation should cause an increase in the price of commoidites, and that commodity price increases are a leading indicator of inflation. While the correlation between commodities and money printing hasn't been noticeable in recent years, COVID-19 has changed things up a bit and it'll be interesting to see if old trends repeat or new trends emerge (consider things like recent meat processing issues increasing the cost of meat, and the recent temporary drop in the price of oil to zero). Although the trend is currently bearish, we are only looking levels of interest. We see two relevant support levels, S1 and S2. S1 would be of particular interest if commodities were going to officially start trending up. If we do get more upside, R1 and R2 are both levels to watch. R2 specifically represents the bottom of the previous range before COVID, and seems like a logical target in an uptrend. To sum it all up, tracking commodities can help us to make profitable trades, either on specific commodities or baskets of commodities via ETFs like the ones noted above, but it is also academically interesting. Could a spike in commodities prices now signal coming inflation from an increase of the money supply? Should we be filling our freezer with OJ and beef to avoid higher prices in the near future? Or, should we just be looking for bullish continuation or bearish consolidation to help us find a nice setup on oil, coffee, and gold? Resource: mises.org + www.investopedia.com
TVC:TRJEFFCRB
by AlphaBotSystem
Copper/Oil spread: once again getting out of handWe have an interesting spread between copper and oil, with the ratio chart showing signs of outperformance in Copper, relative to Oil today. We might be at a local bottom for this ratio, which paves the way for AUDCAD longs, as well as trading Copper and Oil futures/CFDs as a pair, going long Copper, whilst simultaneously going short Oil. This is a very interesting signal, so keep an eye out for the effects of it. Check related ideas for the previous signal' results. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:COPPERLong
by IvanLabrie
9