OIL: $21 <--- -$40.32it is what it is. the points from the peak to Zero is enough to cover the shorts at unthinkable LOWSS
Oil-markets
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURESThe price is in the stage of correcting and gathering strength to form the second highest peak
Crude Oil I see about 35% price drop in crude oil prices ..beginning from next week. The impulsive rally to the upside is at it's final leg.
USOIL Trend pullbackApologies for late post here...
WTI testing the multi month trend line.
Recent move higher in oil was due to strong global growth and demand for oil and after US-administration confirmed they would impose sanctions on Iranian exports, the price of oil began to rally in fears of supply risk. As such traders pushed price higher ahead of the November deadline pricing in ahead of time. (buy the rumor sell the fact).
Since then profit taking has occurred and then risk sentiment turned negative as US equities sold off sharply. Now were hearing fears that 2019 global growth will slow, China is slowing, EU growth is non existent and now the US may potentially slow too, this affecting demand side for oil. However none of this has actually happened yet.
Looking at demand side: Global growth is still strong... On friday we get the latest US GDP figures for Q3 and currently in the midst of earnings season (the busiest week with 150 SP components reporting this week including (AMZN).
Supply side: Iranian sanctions and not enough spare capacity to fill the shortfall left by the sanctions.
Theres also the kashoggi case, where by the US are not going to be happy if the Saudis are caught red handed in the assassination, if the US then decided to punish Saudi Arabia, will the Saudis retaliate by putting an embargo on oil, driving the oil price alot higher, most unlikely scenario but could happen.
Technically, WTI is testing multi month trendline support and 200DMA is close below. Bullish bias on oil off of this trendline back towards October high based on strong global demand and tightening supply. If the SP recovers, global risk sentiment improves, with a solid GDP print on Friday could be enough to send oil higher...
However, as always if the trendline breaks and risk sentiment continues to worsen, I wouldnt hesitate to take a short position in this market on a re test of the trendline from the backside.
USOIL BEARISH SELL After failing to break above the grey resistance zone we now find ourselves back at the 28.10-27.54 support zone. A break below here will indicate further decline in the market with 25.13-23.61 zone being reached.
Shorting below $28.10- $27.54 zone
