US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs
Dow has failed to make all-time highs
Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs
Russell has failed to make any new highs
Oil rips on Middle East escalations
Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong)
I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items
I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries
Major News this week
-US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI)
-Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others
Thanks for watching!!!
Oil
$20 Spike if Israel Hits Iran’s Oil? The Israeli military warned that its response to Iran’s missile attack would be “serious and significant,” as Goldman Sachs forecasted that oil prices could surge by $20 per barrel if Iranian production is disrupted.
Daan Struyven, Goldman’s co-head of global commodities research, stated on Friday that a "sustained drop of 1 million barrels per day" in Iranian output could lead to a peak increase of $20 per barrel next year, assuming OPEC+ does not immediately boost production, which typically requires time to implement. However, if key OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE step in to offset some of the supply loss, the price impact could be more moderate—around $10 per barrel, Struyven added.
Goldman did not offer a specific price forecast if Israel were to target Iran's nuclear facilities, a scenario raised after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump suggested such a strike was appropriate to recent missile activity from Tehran.
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices?
Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply.
Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport.
At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets.
USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel.
If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel.
On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
USOIL Price Analysis: Double Bottom Breakout Targets $78.37🛢️ USOIL Price Analysis: Double Bottom Breakout Targets $78.37 and $83.67
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) shows a bullish reversal pattern on the D1 timeframe , with a double bottom breakout signaling potential upward movement. Traders are eyeing key targets, with the first at $78.37 and the second at $83.67 . Here's a breakdown of the setup:
🔍 What is a Double Bottom Pattern?
A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend. In this pattern, the price hits a support level twice and bounces back. This suggests that sellers have been exhausted, and buyers are stepping in to increase prices. The breakout occurs when the price closes above the peak between the two lows, confirming the pattern.
🚀 Key Price Targets for USOIL
With the double bottom confirmed, here are the following potential price targets:
1. First Target – $78.37:
After the breakout, the immediate upside target is $78.37 . This level is based on a measured move from the bottom of the pattern to the breakout point, giving traders their first profit-taking zone.
2. Second Target – $83.67:
Should the bullish momentum continue, the next target to watch is $83.67 , where further resistance is expected. A move toward this level would signify a more extended upward trend in USOIL.
⛔ Stop Loss – $66.23
To manage risk, traders should consider placing a stop loss at $66.23 . This level is below the pattern's low, where a breakdown would invalidate the bullish outlook and potentially trigger further downside.
📊 Factors Influencing USOIL
Several factors could affect the success of the breakout:
Global Supply and Demand: Changes in OPEC policies, US shale production, and geopolitical tensions can significantly impact oil prices.
Economic Growth: A robust global economy often increases oil demand, increasing prices.
USD Strength: Since oil is traded in US dollars, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on oil prices, while a weaker dollar may support further gains.
🛠 Trading Strategy
For traders looking to capitalize on this breakout, consider the following:
Entry Point: After the breakout, buying near the current price with targets of $78.37 and $83.67 could provide a favorable risk/reward ratio.
Risk Management: Place your stop loss at $66.23 to protect against unexpected market reversals.
💡 Conclusion
The double bottom breakout on the D1 timeframe suggests that USOIL is poised for a potential rally towards $78.37 and $83.67 , with a protective stop at $66.23 . To navigate this opportunity effectively, traders should stay vigilant of key market factors and global developments.
🔔 Stay tuned for more updates on USOIL and other fundamental market movements.
USOIL My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 74.39
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 71.82
Safe Stop Loss - 75.88
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 72.94
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Brent oil and the global recessionConsidering the events in the Middle East and the possibility of the involvement of oil-rich countries, and on the other hand, the economic policies of the United States and the growth of emerging countries in the economic field and the increase in demand from the behavioral financial point of view, oil has the potential to reach the range of $125 per barrel and after that. It has the construction of historical prices in 2025.
OIL Buy SetupOIL Buy
Time Frame:
- Daily: (FVG Identification)
- 4-hour: (FVG Identifiication)
- 1-Hour: Waiting for Confirmation
---
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Change of Character (CoC) in OIL by the break of the previous high at 72.40, indicating a reversal in market sentiment and a new bullish trend.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the daily chart & H4, noted Fair Value Gap between 72.50-73.15. This gap is a potential reversal zone if the price rebounds.
3. Entry Signal
Waiting for any reversal candle pattern on the 1-hour chart, if price touches the identified FVG zone.
4. Trade Execution
Entry Price: Wait for confirmation
SL: 72.10 (below H4 FVG)
TP1: 77.50 (previous high)
TP2: 79.00 (1.618 Fibonacci)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5
Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM
5. Outcome:
Exit Price:
Profit/Loss: pips
-------------
Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
OIL Buy SetupTrade Setup
OIL Buy
Time Frame:
- Daily: (FVG Identification)
- 4-hour: (FVG Identifiication)
-1-Hour: Waiting for Confirmation
---
1. Trend Confirmation:
Identified a Change of Character (CoC) in OIL by the break of the previous high at 72.40, indicating a reversal in market sentiment and a new bullish trend.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
On the daily chart & H4, noted Fair Value Gap between 72.50-73.15. This gap is a potential reversal zone if the price rebounds.
3. Entry Signal
Waiting for any reversal candle pattern on the 1-hour chart, if price touches the identified FVG zone.
4. Trade Execution
Entry Price: Wait for confirmation
SL: 72.20 (below H4 FVG)
TP1: 77.50 (previous high)
TP2: 79.00 (1.618 Fibonacci)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:5.3 - 1:7.5
Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM
5. Outcome:
Exit Price:
Profit/Loss: pips
-------------
Disclaimer
The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Sets course for $80WTI Crude Oil is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.800, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 28.602) as it crossed over the LH trendline of the Bearish Megaphone. After a 4H RSI bottom formation, the 4H MA50 and MA200 are about to form a Golden Cross, the first since June 18th that caused a rally continuation to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That is where the August 12th LH is and that is our target (TP = 80.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USOIL SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 3H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 71.68 area.
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Crude Oil Falls to $70.30 as Market Awaits Possible ReversalOil prices have extended their losses for the second consecutive day, with crude trading around $70.30 per barrel on Wednesday. The decline in oil prices has been largely driven by the potential resolution of a political dispute in Libya, which has temporarily halted exports, along with growing concerns over a slowdown in global demand growth.
Adding to the negative market sentiment, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that US manufacturing continues to struggle. Although there was a slight improvement in August, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 47.2 from 46.8 in July, it still fell short of market expectations of 47.5. This marks the 21st contraction in US factory activity over the past 22 months, underscoring the persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector.
From a technical standpoint, oil has entered a strong demand area, where seasonality data suggests a potential increase in volume, hinting at the possibility of a reversal. Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily short on oil, further supporting the potential for a rebound. However, it's important to note that commercial traders, often seen as the "smart money," continue to hold lower positions, adding a layer of uncertainty to the reversal outlook.
Moreover, oil prices are facing additional pressure due to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) planning to increase production in the upcoming quarter. This move could weigh on prices, making a sustained recovery less certain.
While there are signs of a possible reversal in oil prices, the data remains inconclusive, and traders should exercise caution as market dynamics evolve.
✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OIL TRADE IDEAhi all
expecting a short term pullback after HH perform.
look for HL before continue make new HH
also there is possibility price make new LL on high time frame
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
USOIL / BREAKOUT THE CHANNEL / 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The asset has broken out of a channel and is experiencing bullish pressure. This suggests that the asset’s price is moving upwards after a period of consolidation.
The asset is trading above a supply zone around 74.37 to 73.69. A retest of this zone may occur before prices begin to rise again, targeting a higher supply zone between 76.85 and 77.60.
If the price breaks 73.59, it indicates a potential move to a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 73.07 and 72.15 , his is a zone where price inefficiencies may exist.
If prices stabilize below the FVG zone, it could lead to further declines towards a demand zone between 73.07 and 72.12. This suggests a potential bearish reversal.
Supply Zone : 76.85 and 77.60.
Demand Zone : 73.07 and 72.12.
FVG : 73.07 and 72.15.
WTI Crude Surges After Iran’s Missile Attack, Supply Fears BoostWTI crude oil prices edged higher following news that Iran launched missiles at Israel in a direct attack, sparking fears of potential supply disruptions in the oil-rich Middle East region. The escalation of conflict has heightened concerns about stability in the region, with the risk of a broader war possibly threatening oil production and distribution, sending prices upward.
From a technical perspective, the price movement has played out exactly as predicted in our previous forecast, which can be seen in the following link:
In that analysis, we anticipated a rebound from a key demand area, driven by concerns over geopolitical tensions and possible oil supply disruptions from the conflict. As the situation between Israel and its neighboring countries intensifies, the fear of significant interruptions in oil supply is pushing prices higher.
Looking ahead, the bullish momentum in WTI is expected to continue, possibly driving prices above our initial take profit target. Traders should remain alert for further developments in the region, as any escalation could further fuel the upward pressure on oil prices, potentially leading to even more significant gains in the near term.
In conclusion, WTI prices are on an upward trajectory, fueled by the geopolitical risks stemming from the direct attack on Israel. Our technical forecast of a rebound from the demand zone has been validated, and with the ongoing threat of supply disruptions, the bullish outlook remains strong. Further gains could push WTI prices well beyond our take profit levels if the conflict persists.
✅ Please share your thoughts about Oil in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 74.07 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Stop loss is at 77.10 which is a level that sits above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 70.06 which is a pullback support.
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