Get started

Oil

#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of the bear trend line currently around 70.4. Can you sell this? On a pullback yes, but not below 70. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: No more bullish thoughts from me for now. Only an event can save the bulls. Monday they had another chance and they blew it on Tuesday. Now market has formed a big bear wedge but the hope that this will break to the upside is slim. Bull trend line at 68 has to hold or bulls will give up until 65. Invalidation is below 68 bear case: Bears won last week big time. Now they want to run all the stops below 65 and retest 63.46. Problem with their case is the bull trend line and the bear wedge. We are trading at the lows and above the bull trend line, which is a bad spot for new shorts. Any short around the daily 20ema near 71 is probably a decent trade. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. → Last Sunday we traded 75.56 and now we are at 68.69. That outlook was garbage. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bullish pattern, added bear gap and bear wedge.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready? Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down. Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels. What’s the Move? Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel. If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes. Mindbloome Trader
NYMEX:CL1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
USOIL Faces Resistance: Bearish Trend if Pivot Retest FailsUSOIL Technical analyze The price is currently below the pivot line at 71.78, indicating bearish sentiment. There is a possibility for a retest of the pivot area around 71.78 to 72.72. If the price fails to break and sustain above this area, it is likely to continue downward. If the retest confirms resistance at the pivot line, the price may move towards the support level around 68.79. A break below this level could further extend the bearish trend, targeting lower support zones. Best Direction: Bearish: If the retest fails and the price holds below 72.72, the direction favors a move toward lower support levels, beginning with 68.79. Bullish: If the price breaks and holds above 72.72, it may attempt to target higher levels, but this remains less likely under current conditions. The overall bias remains bearish unless the pivot area is decisively broken. Key levels: Pivot Line 70.90 Resistance lines: 71.78, 72.72, 74.20 Support Lines: 69.90, 68.80, 65.90 Trend Outlook: - Bearish while Under 70.95 and 71.78 - Bullish above 71.78
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
Crude Oil Mastery: Fib Levels, Blocks, & Money Flow MagicMy trading strategy for crude oil is based on a combination of Fibonacci levels, order block support, and money flow profile analysis. By using these tools, I aim to identify key areas of market strength and weakness, allowing for high-probability trade entries. The Fibonacci levels help pinpoint potential retracement zones, while order blocks provide insight into significant support and resistance levels. The money flow profile gives a clear view of liquidity and market participation, allowing me to track where large capital is moving in the market.
NYMEX:CL1!
by GlebalTrader
Crude Oil BearishCrude oil technical analysis Daily resistance 75, support 65 Four-hour resistance 71.8, support 68 Crude oil operation suggestions: From the current market analysis, continue to short near the upper 71.8 mark today, the upper pressure is near 75, the lower support is 69 and 65. The overall support within the day is to maintain the cycle of selling high and buying low in this range, and wait patiently for the key points to enter the market. SELL:71.8near BUY: 68near Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
GBEBROKERS:USOILShort
by ActuaryJ
1
RIG (Transocean) – Potential Reversal? Technical Overview • Current Trend: RIG has been in a clear downtrend since September 2023, as confirmed by Dr. Elder’s Triple Screen framework. However, recent technical signals suggest the trend is losing steam. • Weekly Timeframe: The MACD histogram is showing a bullish divergence, indicating that the momentum behind the price decline is weakening. Additionally, a falling wedge pattern has emerged on both the weekly and monthly charts—typically a reversal signal with strong bullish implications. Entry Strategy and Price Action Expectations • Daily Timeframe: We are closely monitoring the $3.90 level. If the price holds above this level, it is likely to form a double bottom on the daily chart. A breakout above the wedge could trigger significant upside momentum. Historically, similar corrections after bullish divergences on the weekly chart have produced gains of up to 90%. Market Context and Macro Factors Oil Market Influence: The price action in RIG correlates heavily with the broader oil market. With oil supply tightening due to OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Middle East conflict), the oil market could experience an upward cycle. These macro tailwinds may accelerate RIG’s recovery if confirmed by technical breakouts. Conclusi on If the $3.90 support level holds, and the double bottom forms as expected, RIG has the potential to align with the broader bullish trend on the weekly chart. With a falling wedge pattern and bullish divergence supporting the reversal narrative, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend. Potential Trade Setup: Entry: Above $4.00 for confirmation of the breakout. Target: 90%+ upside potential based on historical patterns. Stop Loss: Below $3.80 to minimize risk. This setup offers a high-probability trade, provided the technical signals align with favorable market conditions. Monitor daily for confirmation and adjust your risk accordingly. NYSE:RIG Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice or an investment recommendation.
NYSE:RIGLong
by NORD25
3
WTI CRUDE OIL: Price is bottoming. Excellent long trade.WTI Crude Oil is borderline neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.282, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 34.094) as it is consolidating just over the HL trendline and under the 4H MA200. This consolidation so close to a Support is technically a bottoming process. January-February 2023 exhibited similar behavior that caused the price to rebound towards the R1 level again. The patterns are so far very similar, so we expect the price action to complete the sequence by rising again towards the R1. Aim just under it (TP = 76.50) to lower the risk. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
3
Will the World's Most Vital Artery Become Its Achilles' Heel?In the intricate dance of global energy markets, few factors wield as much influence as the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, often overlooked in daily discourse, stands as a silent titan, controlling the ebb and flow of 21% of the world's daily oil consumption. As geopolitical tensions simmer in the Middle East, the stability of this crucial chokepoint hangs in delicate balance, challenging us to confront a stark reality: how vulnerable is our global economy to disruptions in this single maritime passage? The potential for conflict to spill over into the Strait of Hormuz presents a fascinating study in risk assessment and market psychology. Despite the looming threat of supply disruptions that could send oil prices soaring to unprecedented heights—some analysts project as high as $350 per barrel—the market remains surprisingly sanguine. This dichotomy between potential catastrophe and current calm invites us to explore the complex interplay of factors that shape oil prices, from geopolitical maneuvering to the subtle influence of alternative supply routes. As we stand at this crossroads of energy security and global trade, we are challenged to think critically about the future of oil markets and international relations. The Strait of Hormuz serves not just as a geographical feature, but as a mirror reflecting our world's intricate dependencies and the delicate balance of power that underpins global stability. In contemplating its significance, we are invited to look beyond the immediate concerns of oil prices and consider broader questions of energy resilience, diplomatic strategy, and the evolving landscape of international trade in an increasingly uncertain world.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by signalmastermind