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Oil Oversold? Middle East Risks Remain Oil Oversold? Middle East Risks Remain Oil prices are cooling off as concerns over the nature and scale of Israel’s retaliation to Iran become known. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated to the Biden administration that they will be targeting military rather than oil nor nuclear facilities. Israel could be keeping oil-related targets as a last resort, depending on how Iran responds to any military strikes. Iran accounts for around 4% of global oil production. However, Iran’s production isn’t the only worry. Broader concerns over regional stability, particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz, should continue to weigh heavily on energy markets. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil, and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), passes through the strait that is bordered by Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. If the price fails to hold the $70 support, WTI could slide toward the next support zone of at $66.90, the low from October, and $65.50, a level not seen since September.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals - Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2. - Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2. - Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12. - Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1. I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL. By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively. 12M: 2W: Hourly TFs:
TVC:USOILLong
by Jasminex1x2
Why Accumulation Signals a Bullish Future for USOILH ello, Per the green dotted lines, large players seem to accumulate USOIL. The rising volume data on the bottom chart backs this claim. The price action resolves within a falling channel. This kind of channel usually breaks upwards. The combination of the bullish channel and the accumulative sentiment signals a bullish future for USOIL. The same approach was profitable in 2022 and formed a successful trade until July 2022. Unless USOIL breaks the green support zone downward, I expect a bullish outcome in the upcoming long position. Regards, Ely
TVC:USOILLong
by Elysian_Mind
USOIL "WTI crude oil" Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Bonjour! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist USOIL "WTI crude oil" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
FX:USOILLong
by Thief_Trader
Crude Oil (CL1!): Why We’re Still Expecting Lower LowsAt the end of last week, we fine-tuned our Crude Oil outlook, and we are still expecting lower lows to take out the sell-side liquidity below. Our limit order at $63.23 remains valid, even after last week’s pump, which was driven primarily by rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil gained 13% over five sessions following Iran’s attack, as traders feared Israel’s response might target Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7 million barrels per day of exports. There are also concerns that a broader war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However, the geopolitical risk premium may be fading due to Israel’s delayed response. The geopolitical risk premium has an unclear and unpredictable expiration. When that moment comes and is not supported by real, fundamental factors—such as a substantial supply shortage due to the conflict—the upward movement in oil prices will not be sustainable. The longer this takes, the more the price increase will slow and potentially reverse, which is exactly what we are starting to see in the chart. While Crude Oil respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level almost perfectly, it found stronger resistance at the POC just above that level. Given the bearish RSI divergence, we continue to expect Oil to move lower, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
How to Trade Crude Oil: Trading StrategiesHow to Trade Crude Oil: Trading Strategies Learning how to trade crude oil requires a nuanced understanding of its fundamental aspects, instruments, and trading strategies. This comprehensive article offers insights into the critical elements that affect crude oil prices, the range of instruments available for trading, and specific strategies traders use in this market. The Basics of Crude Oil Crude oil, often referred to as "black gold," is a fossil fuel derived from the remains of ancient organic matter. It serves as a crucial raw material for various industries, including transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing. Two primary types of crude oil traded on global markets are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude. WTI is primarily sourced from the United States and is known for its high quality and low sulphur content. On the other hand, Brent Crude originates mainly from the North Sea and serves as an international pricing benchmark. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, plays a pivotal role in determining global oil supply. By adjusting production levels, OPEC influences crude oil prices significantly. Additionally, other countries like Russia and the United States contribute to the world's oil supply, further affecting market dynamics. What Time Does the Oil Market Open? Like forex markets, crude oil trading hours are nearly 24/5. They’re typically highly liquid and offer traders multiple opportunities across a given day. For example, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) opens for trading from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon, with a brief daily trading break. Activity is most intense during the US session, which runs from 9:00 AM to 17:00 PM EST, and the European session, from 2:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST. These periods coincide with peak market activity and are generally the most volatile, with the overlap between the US and European sessions (between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST) offering the greatest volatility and trading activity. Factors Affecting Crude Oil Trading In oil trading, economics is a fundamental aspect that traders need to grasp to make educated decisions. Several factors drive the price of crude oil, and here are some of the most significant: - Supply and Demand: At its core, the price of crude oil is determined by how much of it is available (supply) versus how much is wanted (demand). An oversupply can depress prices, while high demand can cause prices to spike. - Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, wars, and diplomatic tensions in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, affecting prices. For instance, sanctions on Iran or instability in Venezuela can push prices higher. - Currency Fluctuations: Oil prices are generally quoted in US dollars. A strong dollar can make oil more expensive for countries using other currencies, thereby affecting demand. - Seasonal Changes: During winter, demand for heating oil can rise, pushing crude oil prices up. Conversely, a mild winter might result in lower demand and prices. - Technological Advances: Innovations in extraction methods, such as fracking, can alter the supply landscape, making it easier to extract oil and thereby affecting prices. - OPEC Decisions: As previously mentioned, OPEC has a significant influence on oil prices. Their production quotas can tighten or flood the market, causing price swings. - Economic Indicators: Data like unemployment rates, manufacturing output, and interest rates can indicate the health of an economy, which in turn can affect oil consumption and prices. - Environmental Policies: Increasing regulations and policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy sources can impact the demand and supply of crude oil, thereby influencing prices. - Natural Disasters: Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters can disrupt oil production and supply chains, leading to fluctuations in crude oil prices. - Global Economic Growth: The overall growth of the global economy plays a critical role in crude oil demand. Economic booms often lead to higher energy consumption, driving up oil prices, while economic slowdowns can reduce demand and lower prices. How Is Crude Oil Traded? When learning how to trade oil, traders have a variety of instruments to choose from. CFDs Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are popular instruments when trading crude. CFDs are used by traders to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. Essentially, a CFD is a contract between a trader and a broker to exchange the difference in price from the point the position is opened to when it is closed. One of the key benefits is the use of leverage, which means traders can control a larger position with a smaller initial investment, amplifying both potential returns and losses. Margin requirements vary by broker but are typically lower for CFDs on oil compared to some other instruments. This makes it appealing for crude oil day trading strategies, where traders aim to capitalise on short-term price movements. However, managing risk effectively is crucial, as the leveraged nature of CFDs can result in significant losses if the market moves against you. At FXOpen, we offer both CFDs on WTI Crude oil and Brent Crude. Head over there to explore a world of trading tools and other assets beyond crude oil. Futures Futures contracts are another well-established avenue for trading crude oil. Unlike CFDs, futures are standardised agreements to buy or sell a specific quantity of oil at a predetermined price at a set date in the future. They are traded on regulated exchanges, providing an added layer of transparency and security. Spot Market In spot trading, one buys or sells crude oil and takes immediate delivery and ownership. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage in spot trading, making it a less risky option. However, the absence of leverage requires a higher initial investment. While retail traders often avoid spot trading due to storage and transportation challenges, it's commonly used by entities directly involved in production or consumption. This method is more straightforward but demands the logistical capabilities that individual traders usually lack. ETFs Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer an alternative for those interested in the crude oil market without dealing with futures contracts or physical ownership. Crude oil ETFs typically track the price of oil or related indices by holding futures contracts or a blend of oil company stocks. This allows investors to indirectly gain exposure to oil price movements with less complexity. Investing in a crude oil ETF can provide a degree of diversification, as these funds may also include assets like bonds or other commodities in their portfolio. However, it's essential to be aware of the management fees and potential tracking errors in the ETF's performance compared to the actual commodity. Stocks Another route to gain exposure to the crude oil market is by investing in the stocks of companies involved in the industry. This includes major producers, refineries, and even transportation companies. By owning shares in these businesses, investors are indirectly influenced by crude oil prices. To use an example, a rise in oil prices often boosts the profitability of oil-producing companies, potentially leading to stock price appreciation. Unlike trading futures or CFDs, investing in stocks means actually owning a piece of the company, often with the added benefits of dividends. However, conducting thorough research is crucial, as these stocks can be affected by company-specific risks in addition to oil price movements. Crude Oil Trading Strategies Given the volatile nature of crude oil prices, traders employ specific strategies to capitalise on price fluctuations. Here are some strategies that may be useful for crude oil trading: Trend Following with Moving Averages The trend is your friend, especially in commodities like crude oil. This is a well-known technique but it may be very useful for commodity trading. One effective way to follow the trend is by using moving averages, such as the 50-day (blue) and 200-day (orange). When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it's generally a bullish signal, and vice versa for a bearish trend. However, as with all technical analysis tools, moving averages can sometimes trigger false signals. Range Trading Due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, crude oil prices often fluctuate within a specific range. Identifying these ranges can be useful for short-term trading. Traders buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end, applying technical indicators like RSI or Stochastic Oscillator for entry and exit signals. News-Based Trading In crude oil markets, news about OPEC decisions, US oil inventory data, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements can dramatically impact prices. Traders keeping an eye on oil news can take advantage of sudden announcements or an economic release likely to push prices in a particular direction. Given the high leverage commonly available in CFD trading, this strategy can be effective but also comes with significant risk. Trade Crude Oil at FXOpen Trade WTI and Brent Crude oil CFDs at FXOpen to take advantage of our competitive spreads, high liquidity, and lightning-fast execution speeds. We offer four different trading platforms, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, TickTrader, and TradingView, each with desktop, web-based and mobile versions for access anytime and anywhere. Take advantage of advanced technical analysis tools, including many trading tools and expert advisors for automated trading. Traders can rest easy knowing that FXOpen is also regulated by the FCA in the UK, CySEC in Cyprus, and is licensed to provide financial services in Australia: AFSL 412871 – ABN 61 143 678 719. Start trading oil and gas commodity CFDs with confidence at FXOpen and explore a world of trading opportunities across more than 600 markets. To access Crude Oil markets with competitive spreads and rapid execution speeds, consider opening an FXOpen account today and step confidently into the world of crude oil trading. The Bottom Line In crude oil trading, having the right strategies and tools is essential. By understanding the fundamentals, market dynamics, and utilising specific trading techniques, you are now equipped with the knowledge you need to get started! FAQ How to Trade Brent Crude Oil? To trade Brent Crude oil, you can use various instruments such as futures contracts, CFDs, ETFs, or stocks of oil companies. Most retail traders use CFDs, which provide a way to speculate on price movements without owning the asset. CFDs also allow for leverage, which can amplify both potential gains and losses. What Is the Brent Oil Trading Strategy? A common Brent oil trading strategy involves trend following using moving averages. For instance, traders use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to identify bullish or bearish trends. Range trading and news-based trading are also popular strategies. What Hours Does Crude Oil Trade? Crude oil trades nearly 24/5. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) operates from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon with a daily break. The most active trading occurs during the US session (9:00 AM to 2:30 PM EST) and the European session (6:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST). What Is the Best Time to Trade Brent Crude Oil? According to theory, the best time to trade Brent Crude oil is during the overlap of the US and European sessions, from 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST, when market liquidity and volatility are highest. However, you should consider fundamental factors as they can lead to unexpected price movements. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSDEducation
by FXOpen
6
WTI affects the Middle East and storms in the USOil prices were volatile but posted a second straight weekly gain last week as investors weighed potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and the impact of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased to 75.56 USD/barrel. Although US President Joe Biden has advised against attacking energy facilities in OPEC's third largest producer, the possibility of prolonging the conflict in the Middle East and there are increasing signs of this spreading will make the market nervous. Unrest in the Middle East has increased price volatility and prompted hedge funds to increase their net long positions. At the same time, a statement from the US Treasury Department said that in response to Iran launching ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1, the US is expanding sanctions on the oil and chemical industry. Iranian oil. Hurricane Milton swept through Florida and into the Atlantic last Thursday, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power, putting pressure on prices. Nearly a quarter of Florida's 7,912 gas stations were without fuel as of last Wednesday morning, as drivers stocked up on gas earlier this past week ahead of the storm. Florida is the third largest gasoline consuming state in the US, but the state has no refineries and therefore must rely on imports. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL slight correction after recovery and limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Up to now, WTI crude oil still has technical price increasing conditions with the main trend from the price channel, main support from EMA21. The confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level is the closest current support for WTI crude oil on the daily chart. If WTI crude oil breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to continue rising with the target level then being around 79.03USD. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the EMA21, it remains technically bullish in the short term, and the highlights are listed below. Support: 73.77 – 72.39USD Resistance: 76.40 – 76.84USD
TVC:USOILLong
by Xayah_trading
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area at 67 (Wave "3").Dear colleagues, I believe that at the moment we have a great opportunity to find an entry into a short position that will bring us many pips. The fact is that the wave “2” of the middle order is completed, which means that the wave “3” of the higher order continues the downward movement in the wave “3” of the middle order. I expect the price to rise a bit more to the 78 level, then I expect the price to drop to the 67 level. It will not be a quick drop, but we will be able to go short several times. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
3
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and now we had gigantic up and gigantic down, means gigantic confusion. I favor another sideways to down movement for the second leg of the two-legged correction before bulls can try 77 or higher again. 75-76 is a bad spot to trade imo. Downside target is 74 or 73 and everything below would be bad for bulls. Quote from last week: comment: Wild, wild market currently. New low below 66.9, just to reverse for 13.95% or 925 ticks. You won’t see that move too often per year. So now what? Tough. Friday’s bar has a big tail above and we broke above the bear trend line, which could very well be a bull trap. A look at the monthly and weekly chart never hurts. They are both showing the same continuation pattern of a contracting market, since we did not break the lows below 63. Next bigger high which will most likely hold is the July one at 80.71. As of now bulls turned the market neutral again, where the middle of the potential range could be 72 if we use the July high and the September low. comment : Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels : 71 - 80 bull case: I continue to be bullish until bears can reject 77 or 78 again. Bulls now have formed a proper channel up and we are likely in W2 in a potential W5 series. Don’t trade based on that wave series because right now it’s a very rough guess. Invalidation is below 71.3. bear case: Bears had an amazing pullback last week and had to take profits on those 690 points. I don’t think we will see bigger bears coming around to fight for 75-76 they likely wait for 77/78 again. Otherwise I don’t have any arguments for the bears here. Invalidation is above 79. outlook last week: s hort term: Neutral. I would not short 74.38 right now but favoring the bears for a pullback but only on weakness. Will only turn more bullish above 76 or around 72/73 (if bulls buy it). Pullback could go as deep as 70. → Last Sunday we traded 74.38 and now we are at 75.56. Neutral was good. Big up, big down, big confusion. Likely to trade more in the middle of that range, which we are doing. short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added a potential 5-wave series.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
USOIL Massive Short! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 75.44 Bias - Bearish Safe Stop Loss - 77.07 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 72.67 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILShort
by AnabelSignals
1
WTI Crude Oil: Navigating Market Waves with Technical PrecisionH ello, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is a major benchmark for oil prices in the U.S. It's widely used as a reference price for oil trading and is a key indicator of global oil market trends. Chart Explanation Moving Averages 5-day Moving Average: $74.80 20-day Moving Average: $73.50 50-day Moving Average: $72.00 200-day Moving Average: $70.00 The price is currently above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): 65 (Neutral to Bullish) MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): 2.0 (Bullish) Stochastic Oscillator: 70 (Overbought) Chart Patterns Candlestick Patterns: Recent patterns show a mix of bullish engulfing and doji, suggesting indecision in the market but with a slight bullish bias. Support Levels: $72.00, $70.00 Resistance Levels: $78.00, $80.00 Analysis of Sentiments At present, sentiment on WTI Crude Oil is rather neutral. The sentiment from the technical indicators is ‘buy’, but there is a little bit of energy demand concern as US consumer sentiment has fallen in recent weeks. This calls for a mixed sentiment in which there is hope of price rises but also provides for fears of drop in demand. News Sentiment Information from the latest news has been provoking nervy WTI Crude Oil sentiments. The volatility and the love-hate relationship with the Iran issue have fueled wild price speculations and tensions in the Middle East. Commentators are careful in their assessments arguing in these present price levels that there are wear and tear global political forces, however, all expect a way out that will either break prices up into summits or down into bottoms. Conclusion In the current prices of WTI Crude Oil, one is able to note that there is a steep bullish movement in the short run. Supported by the key indicators, an uptrend of the market is forecasted. Nonetheless, the stock has neared its peak levels and therefore caution should be taken in regard to possible corrections. The price areas close given as $72.00 and $70.00 can present purchasing chances, if any, while selling pressures, if any, at the price boundaries given as $78.00 and $80.00 will be significant to watch. Regards, Ely
TVC:USOILLong
by Elysian_Mind
USOIL (WTI) → bullish setuphello guys. Trendline Break: The price has broken through a downward-sloping trendline, which is a potential signal for a trend reversal or continuation of the upward move. Order Block Area: There is a highlighted horizontal zone (yellow) around the 70.30 level, which may act as a significant resistance or supply area. Traders are likely watching for a test or break of this zone. QML Pattern (Quasimodo): The yellow circle highlights a QML pattern where the price reverses from a prior support level, suggesting a potentially bullish setup. Upward Target: The projected arrow suggests that if the price can sustain above the broken trendline, it may attempt to reach the 70.30 resistance level, representing a potential price target. Volume Consideration: While not displayed, monitoring volume increases as the price moves toward the target zone could validate the strength of the upward move. Support Zone: A key support area appears around the 67.50 level, as shown by the horizontal blue line. If the price reverses, it could test this level again. Overall, a bullish setup appears in place with key resistance around 70.30, but any failure to break that zone could result in a pullback to support around 67.50. ___________________________ ✓✓✓ Always do your research. ❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. ❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
TVC:USOILLong
by melikatrader94
7
USOIL Will Grow! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 7,527.3. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 7,913.5. level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by SignalProvider
1
XLE AT A INTERESTING PRICE WHEN LOOKING AT THE PASTDoes this mean anything? Yes and no. you need more to go on than just this to project the move, however, if you assume middle trend is where this price wants to go to stabilize, and you see we are at a major spot when it comes to horizontal support. I really can't tell yet where it goes. The upside percentage is far less than the potential downside percentage. Upside is favored, but again, I can't really tell on this one to say anything other than, it's at a horizontal mark that has been historically important.
AMEX:XLE
by nicktussing77
WTI breaks outOil prices have been edging higher from their earlier lows. Understandably, traders do not want to be caught holding short bets on oil heading into the long weekend. The potential for Israel to strike Iran could see oil prices gap higher at the Asian open next week. There’s also the potential that China’s finance minister will announce substantive fiscal support for the ailing economy. This could ease demand concerns. Meanwhile, oil traders will also look forward to the release of the monthly OPEC and IEA reports on Monday and Tuesday. Bearish oil speculators will be watching for further signs of weakness in oil demand, while the bulls will probably jump on anything constructive for oil prices. Let’s see what these groups will post, but with the focus being mainly on the Middle East situation, I don’t expect to see prices move very much on the back of these monthly oil reports. WTI has just broken its bearish trend line observed on 1 hour time frame. The new short-term support now is this trend line at around $75.30. From here, WTI could rise to take out liquidity resting above recent highs of $78.30, and possibly even reach $80.00. Let's see if it will be able to hold the breakout now. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom