Crude Oil Trend FollowingCCI is above +100 on the 1 hour chart
We are at the beginning of the 1 hour trend and creating the 2nd wave.
Previous resistance is now becoming support.
We are also finding support at the 1 hour TrendCloud.
4 hour chart is also in an uptrend.
Trade entry at PDO
Let's see if we can catch this 1 hour trend for 5 waves.
Oil
Crude Oil vs Silveris Cheap AgainThe chart shows USOIL relative to Silver in a buy area again.
USO (Crude oil futures ETF) is favorable choice to invest in crude oil since it benefits from current backwardation in future contracts.
Target for USO : $80
Time period: 3 months.
Trade suggestion:
Buy USO at 73
Sell Covered call at 75 for Dec above $3.65-$4 per share premium.
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher.
In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up.
China's massive stimulus policy
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic.
The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer.
New developments in the Middle East
Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.
Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production.
The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously.
However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD.
In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD
Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
WTI OIL Still bullish, targeting the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually gave us the 2 green day streak we wanted in order to turn bullish, as per our suggestion 2 weeks ago (September 10, see chart below):
Event though it marginally broke below April's Channel Down, the buying pressure it has build is similar to all 3 major Bullish Legs since June 2023. Notice how the 1D RSI forms the same Bullish Divergence (Channel Up).
However due to the lower bottom than the one we expected, we have to change our Target to 76.00, which represents a +16.60% rise from the bottom, similar to the smaller Bullish Leg of the three that started on the June 04 2024 Low.
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USOIL / TRADING BELOW TURNING LEVEL - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
July Decline: The significant drop of 15.34% indicates a bearish trend, which could be attributed to various factors such as market corrections, economic conditions, or changes in consumer behavior.
August Recovery: The rise of 11.74% suggests a potential recovery or rebound, possibly driven by positive news, increased demand, or market adjustments. However, this increase was followed by another decline within the same month.
Second August Decline: The 18.23% drop following the initial recovery may indicate market volatility or the market's inability to sustain upward momentum. This could also signal investor uncertainty or reactions to external factors.
September Projection: The forecasted decline of 4.66% in September suggests that the overall trend remains negative. This could imply a continuing lack of confidence in the market, or it may reflect seasonal trends affecting prices.
Technical analysis:
The level at 71.51 serves as a key resistance. If the price remains below this level, a decline towards 68.80 is expected. If this level is breached, the next support could be around 67.19.
Conversely, if the price breaks above 71.51, it may indicate bullish momentum, with targets at 73.99 and then 76.10.
UPWARD TARGET : 73.99 , 76.10 .
DOWNWARD TARGET : 68.80 , 67.19.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: US Election Oil Play1. Introduction
The 2024 US Presidential Election could have a significant impact on global markets, especially energy sectors like crude oil. With key policies and geopolitical tensions hinging on the outcome, many traders are eyeing a potential price surge in WTI Crude Oil futures. Our prior article (linked below) presented a potential opportunity for crude oil prices to rise by over 40% within a year following the election. This could bring WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025) from its current price of 67.80 to around 94.92.
To capitalize on this potential opportunity, a strategic options play can be used to leverage this potential move, providing not only a chance to profit from a bullish breakout but also some protection against downside risk. This article explores a Breakout Booster Play using options on the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil futures contract (CLZ2025), designed to benefit from a possible post-election oil price surge.
2. Technical Overview
In analyzing the December 2025 WTI Crude Oil Futures (CLZ2025), a strong support level is identified. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns perfectly with a UFO support zone at 55.62, suggesting a significant area where buying interest could emerge if prices fall to this level.
The current price of CLZ2025 is 67.80, and the technical analysis points to the possibility of a substantial bullish move following the 2024 US Presidential Election. The projected price increase of 40% could push crude oil prices up to 94.92 over the next year. However, even a more conservative target of 20% (around 81.36) could offer considerable upside potential.
This analysis provides the foundation for constructing an options strategy that not only takes advantage of the potential upside but also offers a buffer zone against downside risk by capitalizing on key support levels.
3. The Options Strategy
The options strategy we'll use here is a Breakout Booster Play designed to take advantage of the expected rise in crude oil prices. Here's how the strategy is constructed:
1. Sell 2 Puts at the 55 Strike:
Expiring on November 17, 2025, these puts are sold to collect a premium of approximately 3.27 points per contract.
By selling 2 puts, we collect a total of 6.54 points.
This creates a buffer zone, allowing us to take on some downside risk while still profiting if prices remain above 55.
2. Buy 1 Call at the 71 Strike:
Also expiring on November 17, 2025, the call is purchased for 6.28 points.
This call gives us the potential for unlimited upside if crude oil prices rise above 71.
Net Cost: The net cost of this strategy is minimal, with the collected premium from the puts (6.54) offsetting most of the cost of the call (6.28). The result is a credit of 0.26 points, meaning the trader gets paid to enter this position.
Break-Even Points:
The position would lose money only if crude oil falls below 54.87 (factoring in the premium collected).
Profit potential becomes significant if crude oil rises above 71, with large gains expected if the projected move to 81.36 or 94.92 materializes.
This strategy effectively positions the trader to profit from an upward breakout while maintaining a buffer against downside risk. If crude oil drops, losses are limited unless it falls below 54.87, at which point the trader would be required to take delivery of 2 crude oil futures contracts (long).
4. Profit and Risk Analysis
Profit Potential:
The key advantage of this options strategy is its profit potential on the upside. If crude oil prices rise above 71, the purchased call will start gaining value significantly.
If crude oil reaches 94.92 (a 40% increase from the current price), the long call will be deep in the money, resulting in substantial profits.
Even if the price rises more conservatively to 81.36 (a 20% increase), the strategy still allows for meaningful gains as the call appreciates.
Since the net entry cost is essentially zero (with a small credit of 0.26 points), the potential profit is high, and it becomes especially powerful above 71, with unlimited upside.
Risk Management:
This strategy comes with a 19% buffer before any losses occur at expiration, as the break-even point is 54.87. However, it is important to note that if the trade is closed before expiration, losses could be realized if crude oil prices have dropped, even if the price is above 55.
Risk Pre-Expiration: If crude oil prices fall sharply, especially before expiration, the trader could face significant losses. The risk is theoretically unlimited because, as the market moves against the sold puts, their value could rise dramatically. If a trader needs to close the position early, those puts could be worth significantly more than the premium initially collected, resulting in losses.
Potential Margin Calls: If crude oil drops far enough, the trader may receive a margin call on the short puts. This could happen well before the price reaches 54.87, depending on the speed and size of the drop. If not managed properly, this could force the trader to close the position at a significant loss.
While there is a built-in buffer, this trade requires active monitoring, particularly if crude oil prices start to decline. Risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders, rolling options, or hedging, should be considered to mitigate losses in case the market moves unexpectedly.
5. Contract Specs and Margins
WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL)
Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.01 per barrel.
Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $10 per contract.
Margin Requirement: Approximately $6,100 per contract (subject to change based on market volatility).
Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL)
Tick Value: Each 0.01 movement equals $1 per contract.
Margin Requirement: Approximately $610 per contract, offering a lower capital requirement for smaller positions.
Why Mention Both?
Traders with larger capital allocations may prefer using standard WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, given their greater exposure and tick value. However, for smaller or more conservative traders, Micro Crude Oil Futures (MCL) provide a more accessible way to enter the market while maintaining the same exposure ratios in a smaller size.
6. Summary and Conclusion
This options strategy provides a powerful way to capitalize on a potential post-election rally in crude oil prices, while offering downside protection. The combination of selling 2 puts at the 55 strike and buying 1 call at the 71 strike, all expiring on November 17, 2025, creates a structured approach to profit from a bullish breakout.
With current analysis based on machine learning suggesting a potential 40% increase in crude oil prices over the next year, the long call offers unlimited profit potential above 71. At the same time, the sale of the puts at the 55 strike gives the strategy a 19% buffer, with the break-even point at expiration being 54.87.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Nice Setup on Crude Oil4 hour chart MACD is showing bearish divergence and also cycling down.
1 hour chart is in a downtrend and CCI is below -100
15 chart shows a downtrend and Fibonacci retracement level of .618 inside a supply zone.
Let's see if we can hit .618 and take the trade short all the way to the 50SMA on the 4 hour chart.
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me.
comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart
key levels: 69.5 - 72
bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema.
Invalidation is above 70.7.
short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Last short term buy.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.729, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 25.961) as it pulled back to the 4H MA50 intra day. The fact that it held, suggests that it remains the short term support of this uptrend that is targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 72.50) where so far we have had three straight rejections since August.
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HighPeak Energy | HPK | Long at $15.75HighPeak Energy NASDAQ:HPK currently has a 19.5million float, 24%+ short interest, 12x P/E, and debt/equity ratio of 0.7x... all while insiders are loading up on shares (CEO grabbed $5+ million in August 2024). Something may be brewing. The oil and natural gas company's earnings are expected to rise into 2025 after taking a hit in 2024.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price for NASDAQ:HPK has been consolidating for some time now between $12 and $17. It won't trade sideways forever, but that doesn't mean it's only going up. Personally, with the amount of insider purchases and limited selling since 2022 while the stock is consolidation mode, I anticipate an upward move in the coming months or years into 2026. At $15.75, the stock is in a personal buy zone. There is a gap near $14.50 that may be closed in the near-term, but unless some abysmal company news emerges (which is counter-intuitive to insiders buying right now), the stock may be gearing up for a big move.
Target #1 = $17.40
Target #2 = $19.00
Target #3 = $20.00
Target #4 = $22.30
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WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 70.11 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 68.26 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 73.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Daily bars looking weak but it does not matter, it’s a small pullback bull trend and it’s going higher. Not a single bar went below the previous so we are max bullish. 72 is very likely get hit on Monday and the first bigger target is 73. There market decides if this bigger bear trend is still alive or we have found a credible bottom at 64.
Quote from last week:
comment: Selling the 4h ema on Tuesday was as perfect as it gets. Bulls bought the lows again and 65 held. Neutral around 68 because both sides have reasonable arguments.
But also this:
Given the max bearish sentiment that everyone and their dog is writing about on x, I favor the bulls to trap late bears much more than I expect continued selling but as long as bears are below the daily ema, they are in control of the market.
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: 4h tf. Look at it. Every touch is bought. Until that stops, only look for longs. Bulls are only making higher lows and higher highs. Their next target is the obvious bear trend line around 73.5/73.7. Even if bears come around and print something below 70, bulls would most likely buy it for a retest of 71.5 or 72.
Invalidation is below 68.5.
bear case: Bears who sold below 67 were trapped and market just keeps going higher. Bears gave up completely on Thursday and Friday was most likely bulls taking profits and opex things why we stalled. Until bears print something below 69, they have no arguments as of now. Sure we are still inside the bear channel but the upper trend line is still almost 400 ticks away. Best they can probably get is sideways movement 70-72.
Invalidation is above 72.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral around 68. I have alerts and wait for one side to clearly take control again. Slightly favoring the bulls if they stay above 68 and get momentum going again.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68.65 and now we are at 71. Bad outlook. Bulls took over completely. I still think it was a surprise since market did not even retest anything below 67. Would give the outlook again.
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull trend lines from the 4h tf.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
OIL LONG 15M TF🚀The Atom Signals Trading View Indicator is a sophisticated tool designed for traders seeking to enhance their market analysis and trading strategies. Developed with the intention of providing clear and actionable signals, this indicator leverages a blend of technical analysis techniques to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. It aims to simplify the decision-making process by offering visual cues and alerts, which can be particularly valuable for both novice and experienced traders.🤖
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Based on the indicator we predict as shown in the charts.
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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 23-27: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 23-27th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
USOIL Is Going Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 71.19.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 67.16 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal.
Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish.
Small Spec Index: Buy Signal.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries.
Front Month Premium Market.
True Seasonal up to Mid October.
Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger.
Good luck & good trading.
Mid-Week Market Report: Post-FOMC Results, Forecast UPDATES!Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024
This video will cover the updates to the Weekly Forecasts videos posted last Saturday.
With the Fed deciding to cut the rates 50 basis points, there was some volatility injected into the markets, resulting our targets being achieve!
Also, we will forecast the SP500, NAS100, DJI, GOLD, SILVER, US & uk OIL markets! So watxh until the end of the video!
If you like the video, leave a like/boost. I appreciate your comments, as well. I respond to all of my viewers.
May profits be upon you.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 16-20: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 16-20th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.