The decisive day of major data (USOIL)
Yesterday, it was pointed out in the analysis circle: The support of 58 needs to be tested. Sure enough, buying at low levels continued to expand profits. The current price is 59.6. From the pressure analysis, the market is still affected by data that oversupply, and institutions will not reduce production in a short time. Therefore, oil prices will fall further,
The oil price broke through 59. Due to supply reasons, the market still has a downward range. 60-61 is a good choice to sell in succession.
tp58-57
Oil
WTI TRADE UPDATEhi all
Based on the current situation for WTI, with the stop loss hit from the previous trade idea, Plan A now relies on a breakout of the trendline and the support turning into resistance as confirmation for taking a long position.
However, if rejection occurs at the trendline or at the support-turned-resistance level, there's a possibility that the price will decline again, given that a breakout has already happened on the daily timeframe. Therefore, closely monitoring price movements around these key levels is crucial before making any trading decisions.
Ensure strong confirmation before acting, and keep an eye on shifts in market structure. Feel free to share any new updates, and best of luck with your strategy!
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 60.49 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 62.30 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 56.68 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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USOIL CAUTION! BREAK - TEST - GO!This is my new updated chart of Oil.
Trump's "Drill baby Drill" interfering with the free market is the absolute worst thing he could do. His ridiculous tariffs will put us in an economic depression!
Oil prices are driven by demand! As I have mentioned here on TV so many times before! Increasing supply while heading into a recession is the dumbest thing possible! You never want to consume your own oil when you can consume others first! Simultaneously, F your own nation's oil company's profit margins and gov tax revenue!
This is why we shouldn't put toddlers as POTUS!
Anyway!!! This is a break test go! setup!
If you haven't seen it before, here is an example I recently posted with AAPL.
Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets too. ))
USOIL trading alerts. Pressure and support.Oil also fell according to instructions. I just forgot to remind you. Sorry, but the profit is quite good. Sell short from 58.7. Then the lowest reached 56.34
But today in the New York market, USOIL rose again above 58. From a fundamental perspective. The market will continue to fall under pressure. But from the trend, we need to pay attention to the support of 58. If it does not fall today, it is likely to continue to fall based on Friday's trend. The pressure level near 59 needs to be paid attention to. In terms of operation, it is still mainly selling at high levels.
Always remind trading risks. So don't ignore this. If you don't know how to trade. Remember to wait and see. Don't trade blindly or gamble.
Many investor friends know that I have led some investors to create good profits for several consecutive days. If you don't know how to trade, remember to leave me a message and try it. Maybe your profit will double.
Can oil prices continue to be shorted? Of courseSaudi Arabia made a major strategic shift, willing to accept low oil prices and unwilling to cut supply.
Oil prices fell sharply as a result.
It is expected that oil prices will hit 55-56 in the short term, so the operation is still mainly shorting oil prices. Overcapacity.
USOIL BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.13
Target Level: 61.78
Stop Loss: 64.03
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Short on Oil/Back to 57$ SOONI believe we can continue the retest of previous major support level at 65-66$ and fibonacci 0.618. This major support will be flipped to resistance in my opinion. We can see a significant sell-off back towards the 57$ area and below from this location.
I will be looking to enter a short trade from the 0.618 region/66$ if there is a rejection.
My mid-term/end-of-year prediction for US OIL is between 45-50$ and possibly lower.
If you believe in the fundamentals and idea of this setup, feel free to follow and use it.
Not financial advice.
Planning for the Next Trade in Crude OilNYMEX:CL1!
Key Levels – Higher Timeframe:
• 2025 High: 78.56
• Yearly Open (2025): 69.64
• 2025 mCVPOC: 71.83
• Yearly VWAP: 68.41
• AVWAP from Yearly Highs: 67.71
• 2025 mCVAL: 65.28
• March 2025 Low: 64.37
• 2024 Low: 59.91
April 2025 Key Levels:
• April mCVAL: 58.79
• April mCVPOC: 60.94
• April AVWAP from Lows: 61.29
• April AVWAP from Highs: 61.76
• April mCVAH: 63.73
Our previous trade idea played out as expected. With updated levels now in place, we aim to reassess the market context without falling into recency or confirmation bias. These biases often lead to an overly bearish outlook at market lows, especially amid ongoing headlines around trade war tensions and supply concerns. While such fundamentals are important, maintaining objectivity is key.
This leads us to the central question: Is all this bearish sentiment already priced in? If so, why are sellers still dominant?
From a broader perspective, the overall context for crude remains bearish. However, this does not imply an immediate continuation to lower prices.
Currently, price is trading below both the midpoint of 2025 and that of 2024. Additionally, the recent price swing failed at the March 2025 low—an important technical rejection. The 2024 low at 59.91 now serves as key structural support. We anticipate further consolidation within the April 2025 value range, specifically between mCVAH (63.73) and mCVAL (58.79).
We define the area between April’s mCVPOC (60.94) and AVWAPs (61.29 / 61.76) as a "noise zone"—a region where price action is likely to be choppy and directionless. This zone is not favorable for directional trades.
Potential Trade Setup – Range-Bound Play
Example Trade 1: Long Crude Oil
• Entry: 59.91
• Stop: 59.20
• Target: 61.76
• Risk: 71 ticks
• Reward: 185 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.6R
Example Trade 2: Long Crude Oil
• Entry: 58.80
• Stop: 58.20
• Target: 61.76
• Risk: 60 ticks
• Reward: 296 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.93 R
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations.
• Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management.
• Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels.
• AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
ATH: All time high
VPOC: Volume Point of Control
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price
Green Zones: Bull/ Buyers support zones
Red Zones: Bear/Seller resistance zones
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has also started to fluctuate recently. Yesterday's daily line finally began to decline. Crude oil is bearish in both the big and small trends. Continue to sell when it rebounds to the moving average. The crude oil pattern is still weak on the daily line. The current suppression position has begun to move down. Crude oil 61.68 is an opportunity to sell. The daily moving average has begun to rush down. Don't intercept it.
Fundamental analysis
Today, we will start to pay attention to the ADP data, as well as PCE data and EIA crude oil inventory data.
Operation suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 61.60, target 60.00-58.00
USOIL BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 59.70
Target Level: 63.67
Stop Loss: 57.06
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Oil : April Could Be the Worst Month in Three and a Half YearsOil Prices: April Could Be the Worst Month in Three and a Half Years
As the XTI/USD chart shows:
→ at the beginning of April, WTI crude was trading above $71 per barrel;
→ this morning, on the last day of the month, the price has fallen below $60.
The overall decline may reach 16% — the worst monthly performance since November 2021.
Why Is Oil Falling?
The primary driver behind the sharp drop in oil prices earlier this month was the introduction of new US tariffs, particularly targeting China and the EU. This raised concerns that a potential global trade war could slow economic growth and, in turn, reduce global oil demand.
According to a Reuters poll, the tariffs imposed by Trump have made a global recession in 2025 a realistic risk.
In addition, growing attention is being paid to OPEC+ and its plans to increase oil production. The next meeting is scheduled for 5 May.
Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart
Oil price fluctuations in 2025 have formed a descending channel (highlighted in red), with lower highs and lower lows reflecting continued bearish sentiment.
Bulls may hope for support to emerge around the $58.85 level, as:
→ this has acted as support before (as indicated by arrows);
→ this level aligns with the lower boundary of a local upward trend (shown in blue), which formed after news broke that Trump had postponed the implementation of some tariffs — triggering a sharp rebound in oil prices from the 9 April low.
Nevertheless, the broader structure remains bearish: the rise towards point C appears to be a corrective recovery following the impulse drop from A to B. Given the potential impact of upcoming news — including statements from the White House and OPEC+ decisions — a bearish breakout below the blue channel cannot be ruled out.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
OIL TRADE IDAHello
Hi everyone. Regarding oil movements, I see a long opportunity at the level of 59.61. If the price closes below 58.56, there is a possibility of a temporary rise before continuing to drop to 55.
good luck all
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Market Analysis and Trading Strategy of USOILThe USOIL market has witnessed significant fluctuations recently. Yesterday, the price broke below the key support level of $61.5, and then it has been declining all the way. As of today, it has approached the vicinity of $59.5. This downward trend reflects that the bearish force currently dominates the market.
From a technical analysis perspective, once the support level of $61.5 is broken, its nature will transform into a strong resistance level. The rapid decline of the price to $59.5 indicates strong bearish momentum. Currently, the focus of the market is on the $59 mark, which is of crucial importance. If this support level is breached, according to the continuity of the price trend and the technical pattern, USOIL is highly likely to continue to decline further. The next important support level is around $57.5. Conversely, if the price can be effectively supported near $59, based on the technical repair demand after being oversold, the price is expected to rebound.
Based on the above analysis, in terms of trading strategy, investors can consider taking a short position near $60. If the price breaks below $59, the short position can be held, with the target price set at $57.5. If the price stabilizes and rebounds near $59, the stop-loss order should be executed in a timely manner to avoid expanding losses. Given the frequent release of important data recently and the significant impact of these data, market volatility will increase significantly. Investors must trade with caution, strictly control their positions, and set reasonable stop-loss levels to cope with the possible sharp price fluctuations.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Oil Price Rebound UnravelsThe price of oil may continue to give back the rebound from the monthly low ($54.46) as it extends the decline from the start of the week.
The price of oil starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows as it snaps the range bound price action from last week, with a move/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region bringing the 2023 low ($52.24) on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around $49.10 (100% Fibonacci extension), but lack of momentum to move/close below the $59.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $60.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region may push the price of gold back towards the weekly high ($63.92).
Need a close above $64.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the $70.80 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 72.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around the February high ($74.30).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
Could the price bounce from here?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 59.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 57.02
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 62.08
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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WTI OIL Bearish Cross confirming more selling ahead.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 06 2024 Low. The last Bearish Leg started on a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection and was confirmed with a 1D MACD Bearish Cross 3 days after.
At the moment we have had a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection and today we will complete a new 1D MACD Bearish Cross. As a result, we almost have a new sell confirmation. Once completed, sell and target $53.50 (-19% from the point of the rejection).
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Oil - Short Term Sell Trade Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 17th I shared this idea "Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short Term"
I expected to see bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. You can read the full post using the link above.
The price is currently holding in the first Fibonacci resistance zone.
Until both the Fibonacci resistance zones hold my bearish view still remains.
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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USOIL Will Go Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 61.191.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 56.009 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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