CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea?
Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November.
I look at many interesting things:
-Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to.
-The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October.
-The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October.
-Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil.
-Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November.
TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation.
If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message.
I hope you had a good start to your week.
And as always...
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Oil
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USOIL: Bullish Outlook with Probability-Based EntriesMy overall bias on USOIL remains bullish, supported by several key fundamentals:
1. OPEC+ production cuts continuing to tighten supply
2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raising concerns about potential supply disruptions
3. Improving economic outlook in China, potentially boosting oil demand
4. Seasonal increase in oil consumption as we approach summer driving season
I'm utilizing probabilities to position myself into longs on USOIL.
By combining this probability-based method with my bullish bias, I aim to enter USOIL longs at optimal points with favorable risk-reward profiles.
Feel free to let me know if you need any further adjustments!
12M:
2W:
2H:
Wishing you a great trading week!
UK OIL / Brent Crude Oil Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
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US OIL / WTI Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
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US OIL / WTI Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
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WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.80 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 74.58 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 68.63 which is a pullback support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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WTI recovered insignificantly, bearish factors prevailedWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL opened down to 68.94 USD/barrel as of the time this article was completed.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Thursday that global crude oil demand is cooling while output outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ( OPEC+) continues to increase.
According to IEA data, the organization predicts non-OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025.
The fact that supply is continuously expanding while market demand is not enough to compensate is the most noticeable pressure on the oil market at the present time.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 15% this quarter on concerns about falling demand. The International Energy Agency said that global consumption growth in the first half of the year reached its lowest level since the epidemic. In that context, OPEC+, an organization of oil producing countries, postponed plans to relax supply restrictions, and Libya's oil output continued to decline.
About supporting factors
With the recent conflict in Libya and a series of geopolitical crises in recent years, the market is not without upside potential, although these factors have not yet had a profound enough impact on the market. common school.
Combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting next week after the labor market showed signs of slowing and traders are more optimistic that policymakers policy will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Lower borrowing costs could support economic growth and increased energy demand.
These may provide negligible fundamental support in the near term. However, the oil market needs to pay more attention to Supply - Demand and OPEC+ factors.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil recovered but remained in a long-term downtrend noted by the price channel and pressure from EMA21.
Crude oil's fall below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart would open the door for a new bearish cycle with the target then at $67.25 in the short term, more so than $65.2.
On the other hand, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, the downtrend remains dominant, but maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci level will be the factor that pushes it to recover a little further with resistance near highest at 70.9USD.
Looking at the overall picture, the trend of WTI crude oil is to decrease in price with technical levels that will be noticed again as follows.
Support: 68.74 – 67.25USD
Resistance: 70.28 – 70.90USD
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?USOUSD is falling towards the support level that is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67.83
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 66.26
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 70.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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#USOIL 1DAYUSOIL 1 Day Trade Opportunity
Buy Opportunity:
Buy Level: 66.500
Target Levels: 67.500 / 68.500 / 69.500 / 71.500
Description:
Today's analysis of USOIL (Crude Oil) suggests a promising buy opportunity. With the current price at 66.500, the market shows potential for upward movement. Consider entering a long position at this buy level.
Target Levels:- 67.500: Initial target level where short-term gains might be realized.
68.500: A subsequent target indicating continued bullish momentum.
69.500: An intermediate level that may act as a resistance point but offers a chance for profit-taking.
71.500: The final target level, which represents a more extended bullish move.
Monitor the price action closely around these target levels for potential exit points or adjustments to your trading strategy. As always, ensure to implement proper risk management techniques.
USOIL: Market Is Looking Down! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 68.336
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
USOIL: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the USOIL pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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USOIL Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 68.33.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 71.84 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Crude oil demand concerns in focus with key Chinese data on tapCrude oil is now up for the third day after finding strong support around the $65 area. Now near $70, could it resume lower from here?
It is important that that blue shaded area around 68.80-69.00 now holds as support if prices dip, otherwise we may see the bears step in on oil again.
From a macro point of view, demand concerns continue to linger. Unless we see some improvement in data to suggest that crude oil demand is going to be stronger, or supply growth is going to be weaker, this recovery we have seen should be taken with a pinch of salt. It is likely that prices have found support this week amid short-side profit taking and on the back of weaker US dollar, with hurricane disruptions further encouraging dip-buyers. But weakness in China’s economy is a major concern, which puts the weekend’s release of industrial data from the world’s second largest economy into focus. In the week ahead, crude oil traders will be watching the big central bank rate decisions, especially that of the Fed on Wednesday. If the FOMC’s economic projections in the dot plots point to weakness in growth, then that could trigger a fresh wave of selling.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analysts with FOREX.com
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
currently prices trading above turning level at 78.74 , overall under bullish pressure.
In order for the price to reach 71.59, it first needs to establish a period of stabilization above two critical levels: 68.74 and 69.98. These levels act as key support zones, signaling strength in the market if maintained. Once stability is confirmed above 69.98, upward momentum is expected to build, pushing the price toward 71.59. If this bullish trend continues, the price may extend further, reaching the next target at 74.24.
However, if the price fails to hold above 68.74, it indicates weakening bullish momentum, and the market may shift towards a downtrend. In this scenario, breaking the turning level at 68.74 could trigger a decline toward 65.35. A more pronounced drop could push the price even lower if this support level is breached.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74
Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price RecoversMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Recovers
Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $70.25 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $67.00 support.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price found support near the $64.75 zone against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $66.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The bulls were able to push the price toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.27 swing high to the $64.74 swing low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00.
The hourly RSI is near the 65 level, but the price is struggling near $69.00, and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.27 swing high to the $64.74 swing low.
The next resistance is near the $70.25 level. A clear move above the $70.25 could send the price toward the $71.50 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.40 level. Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from the $69.00 resistance.
Immediate support sits near the $68.15 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $67.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.05. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $64.75 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL / TRADING SENSITIVE AREA - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
In the last chart as mentioned rising and reached +100 pip profit.
Currently, prices are trading above 68.74. As long as they remain and stabilize above this level, a rise toward 69.98 is expected. To confirm an uptrend, prices need to break above 69.98, potentially reaching 71.59. On the downside,
if prices stabilize below 68.74, a decline toward 65.35 is anticipated, and if they fall further below this level, they could reach 63.67.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74