Oil
USOIL / TRADNING ABOVE SUPPORT LEVEL AT 67.19 - 4H USOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Price Decline of 7.16%: The analysis suggests that there has already been a price drop of 7.16%. This could be the starting point for further analysis or an event that has already occurred.
Breaking and Stabilizing Below 67.19: The level 67.19 seems to be a significant support or resistance point. If prices break below 67.19 and stabilize, it indicates a bearish trend. This might suggest that further declines are likely.
Further Decline of 9.71%: Should the price fall and stabilize below 67.19, the analysis anticipates an additional 9.71% decline.
Current Trading Above 67.19: Presently, prices are still above the 67.19 level, signaling that the market has not yet broken this key point.
Expected Increase of 10.36% : The text predicts an upward movement of 10.36%, potentially implying bullish momentum if the price continues to hold above 67.19.
Possibility of Further Increase: There’s a suggestion that the price could rise even more beyond the 10.36% increase if current trends hold.
Technical Analysis:
Current Market Condition:
The asset is under bullish pressure , As long as the price remains above 67.19, the bullish momentum is expected to continue.
Upward Condition:
- Target 1: If the price trades above 67.19, it's expected to rise to 71.51.
- Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 71.51, the next target is 72.16.
Downward Condition:
- If the price falls below 67.19 , it suggests a potential decline:
- Target 1: A decline to 65.34.
- Target 2: If it breaks below 65.34, further decline is expected to 63.93.
What’s Putting Crude Oil Prices Under Pressure?At a Glance
With vehicle efficiency up and China's economy slowing, WTI crude oil prices experienced late summer lows, though they have since started to rebound
Driving would need to increase by nearly 2% each year to keep fuel demand stable
Crude oil prices fell sharply in late August and early September. Does this mean that oil is a bargain?
The answer is complex. For starters, OPEC+ has taken 3.6 million barrels per day off of the market over the past two years. Secondly, geopolitical tensions remain high. What explains oil’s weakness despite these factors that ordinarily might have supported prices?
Vehicle Efficiency
The average car in model year 2024 will likely be able to drive as much as 24% further on the same amount of fuel as a similar car from model year 2012. Since a car typically lasts about 12 years, this means that each year drivers around the world need to drive about 2% further than the year before just to keep demand stable.
In the U.S., drivers aren’t driving any further than they were back in 2019.
Demand From China
Last year, 35% of new cars sold in China were EVs, and this year that could grow to over 50%. China’s economy is also growing more slowly than in the past. Since 2005, oil prices have often peaked about one year after peaks in China’s pace of growth. China’s growth rate last crested in 2021, and oil prices peaked a year later in 2022.
Moreover, China’s economy decelerated sharply over the summer which might deprive oil of a critical source of demand growth going into late 2024 and into next year.
Finally, watch for OPEC+ decisions later this year, which could potentially boost output.
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By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
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**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
WTI Oil H1 | Downward momentumWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 68.70 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 70.10 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 66.21 which is a swing-low support.
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USOIL WTI Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 USOIL WTI recently broke structure to the down side, as seen on the 4H timeframe. In this video, we closely examine USOil, discussing the trend, market structure, and price action. We also explore a potential trade setup.
**Disclaimer:** Forex trading involves significant risk, and market conditions can change quickly. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📉✅
Important update WTI. H4 26.09.2024WTI Important update
Past WTI oil buys didn't manage to get fully developed and the overall correction ended near the nearest resistance at 72.00. On the downside, large volume was poured at 69.65 and eventually gave a push to the downside, thus forming a sellers zone. I believe the overall upward correction is over and will break the lower boundary with downside potential to 64.50 to the block option spread. Then we will watch the culmination below if given, but for now selling is the priority.
BLACKBULL:WTI
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Bullish trend on USOIL, defined by the green colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is oversold based on the BB lower band proximity, makes me expect a bullish rebound from the support line below and a retest of the local target above at 71.55.
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USOIL - Short Trade Idea (26th Sept 2024)This is my analysis on USOIL.
So, what my eye catches is the ascending sellside trendline liquidity being build up. We have a recent touch on it, retracing into a weekly SIBI. Based on this, I am anticipating us trade quickly down into a monthly BISI as my initial target.
The stoploss I set is based on the current swing high. A wider stoploss could be adopted to weather any sort of wick damage happening during high impact news.
Let's see how this plays out.
- R2F
WTI CRUDE OIL has bottomed. Buy.WTI Crude Oil has rebounded initially on Support A, a level that is holding since March 20th 2023.
At the same time the 1day RSI double bottomed the same way it did in December 2023 and May 2023.
This is a clear buy signal that is targeting the 1day MA200 and the Falling Resistance at 78.00.
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Oil, Up or Down?On the daily chart, it can be observed that crude oil has rejected the crucial 71.67 resistance as sellers entered the market to position for a drop back towards the 65 level. For the buyers, they will require the price to break above this resistance in order to start targeting the major trendline around the 76 level.
Interesting enough, there are two banks given contradictory forecast, MKTNews reports,
RABOBANK: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $70 NEXT YEAR DUE TO EMERGING SUPPLY SURPLUS
UBS: OIL PRICES EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE $80 PER BARREL AS INVENTORIES DECLINE
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Move From Confluence Zone
WTI Crude Oil tested a significant confluence zone yesterday.
That zone is based on a recently broken daily horizontal resistance
and a falling trend line.
Probabilities will be high that the price will drop from that area.
First goal - 70.45
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Crude Oil IdeaFollow up on a very old OIL idea from 2021
OIL completed 5 waves up from the COVID lows until the $130 highs, now appears to be in a multi year correction.
There is bullish divergence on MACD and TSI on 1W chart indicating possible trend change.
I think this is possibly C wave up to $100 (1:1 extension) or $115 (1.618 extension).
A break above $130 would indicate the multi year correction was completed at the $64 lows, something like below:
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 72.56
1st Support: 70.33
1st Resistance: 74.76
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Crude Oil Trend FollowingCCI is above +100 on the 1 hour chart
We are at the beginning of the 1 hour trend and creating the 2nd wave.
Previous resistance is now becoming support.
We are also finding support at the 1 hour TrendCloud.
4 hour chart is also in an uptrend.
Trade entry at PDO
Let's see if we can catch this 1 hour trend for 5 waves.
Crude Oil vs Silveris Cheap AgainThe chart shows USOIL relative to Silver in a buy area again.
USO (Crude oil futures ETF) is favorable choice to invest in crude oil since it benefits from current backwardation in future contracts.
Target for USO : $80
Time period: 3 months.
Trade suggestion:
Buy USO at 73
Sell Covered call at 75 for Dec above $3.65-$4 per share premium.
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher.
In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up.
China's massive stimulus policy
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic.
The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer.
New developments in the Middle East
Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.
Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production.
The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously.
However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD.
In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD
Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
WTI OIL Still bullish, targeting the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually gave us the 2 green day streak we wanted in order to turn bullish, as per our suggestion 2 weeks ago (September 10, see chart below):
Event though it marginally broke below April's Channel Down, the buying pressure it has build is similar to all 3 major Bullish Legs since June 2023. Notice how the 1D RSI forms the same Bullish Divergence (Channel Up).
However due to the lower bottom than the one we expected, we have to change our Target to 76.00, which represents a +16.60% rise from the bottom, similar to the smaller Bullish Leg of the three that started on the June 04 2024 Low.
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USOIL / TRADING BELOW TURNING LEVEL - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
July Decline: The significant drop of 15.34% indicates a bearish trend, which could be attributed to various factors such as market corrections, economic conditions, or changes in consumer behavior.
August Recovery: The rise of 11.74% suggests a potential recovery or rebound, possibly driven by positive news, increased demand, or market adjustments. However, this increase was followed by another decline within the same month.
Second August Decline: The 18.23% drop following the initial recovery may indicate market volatility or the market's inability to sustain upward momentum. This could also signal investor uncertainty or reactions to external factors.
September Projection: The forecasted decline of 4.66% in September suggests that the overall trend remains negative. This could imply a continuing lack of confidence in the market, or it may reflect seasonal trends affecting prices.
Technical analysis:
The level at 71.51 serves as a key resistance. If the price remains below this level, a decline towards 68.80 is expected. If this level is breached, the next support could be around 67.19.
Conversely, if the price breaks above 71.51, it may indicate bullish momentum, with targets at 73.99 and then 76.10.
UPWARD TARGET : 73.99 , 76.10 .
DOWNWARD TARGET : 68.80 , 67.19.