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USOIL A HARMONIC CRAB FOR 100$HELLO FRIENDS As i can see us oil is now trading near 67.00 $ i can see a strong horizontal Support Zone on Daily based and weekly based also we can see a bullish crap harmonic pattren with FIb retracement it can be a life changing trade we need patience time will decice after theses over sold weeks on oil and wars are the world will boost the demand because wars r not based on EV, they need Crude also fundamental issues and tight supply with exceeding demand will boost the price charts always talk we always prefer 80% of technical Friends our trade idea is based on very lower risk and big weekly rewards it's just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us Stay Tuned for more updates
TVC:USOILLong
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL. Time Frame: 15m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 66.952. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 66.542 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
Crude Oil - High TideCrude oil is a very complicated market at this time - difficult to see through the fog. Given the second Trump presidency in January of 2025, Russian sanctions on exports and an ever complicated situation in the Middle East, the market appears virtually untouchable. So let's break it down. Given that Trump has been granted a second term as president as of the first week of November 24', this is the single most important variable - and I will elaborate why. The lines of resistance and support on this chart were drawn nearly a year ago yet remain relevant why? Because crude oil to the world, is priced in US Dollars. Any nation seeking to trade their natural resources is looking towards NYMEX, not because it is ideal but because it is LIQUID. This theme is virtually omnipresent in commodities and should be made note of. Regardless of what market a given entity is using to buy and sell commodities - particularly energy - it is priced given the current price of the most LIQUID index. So a sale of Russian oil brokered between China and India will bear some respectiveness to the NYMEX price of light crude oil, regardless of what product is being exchanged. So first, lets try and examine the logistics of UREX crude. As we can see, export of Russian crude oil has declined since it's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This would be expected, given that not only do EU sanctions against Russia specificy against its' ability to trade its' natural resource, but for international suppliers to qualify for insurance in transporting Russian product. This is an extremely difficult notion to quantify, and will only be approximated for the purposes of this essay. It is implicit given the energy security structure of the EU that Russian aggregate product (energy) will be supplied regardless of sanctions, however this agreement becomes more complicated and pricier for the EU when examined from a global perspective. According to the media, Russia controls the marginal barrel of oil globally. This comes as a multi- decennial effort by the Putin administration to isolate Russian oil markets from influence by the US Dollar - a bold effort, for better or worse, has succeeded. Meaning that theoretically Nthrough OPEC, Russia can starve its competitors of profit by keeping the price of oil low enough that only they can produce profit at the margin, even in spite of EU sanctions. An unflagged, or unregistered, fleet of commercial ships has emerged since 2022, which is extremely relevant to the proposed thesis. However given the opaque nature of this commercial fleet cannot be investigated, it will be assumed that they are enabling the commerciality of Russian crude oil globally, having secured a black market outside the realm of commercial shipping typically secured by the largest Navy globally, the USA. The US Navy has ceased to protect commercial shipping in proximity to Yemen, as rebel groups such as the Houthi continue their aggression towards Western flagged commercial vessels. However, it is unclear of the influence of "black flagged", or unregistered and uninsured vessels carrying Russian crude, among other potentially illegal product through the region. This is relevant, because as insurance rates have risen for global carriers, so too have the protests by major carriers against the sanctions placed against Russia. In a purely hypothetical landscape, carriers deemed illegitimate in the Western sphere of affairs have been able to transport product at a lower crude price, at a negotiable insurance rate previously commodified in the Western world. Commercial shipping insurers have at large protested against EU sanctions - unable to compete with the emergent black market. Now we will assume that a Trump presidency will resume the regularity of oil exports and pricing as dictated by OPEC - however there remains several months of "negotiations". We can assume Trump parties have influence over these negotiations going into the January inauguration, yet a critical gap remains. As any nation would, the Russians and Saudis despite OPEC have an opportunity to control without impunity the marginal price of oil - the price at which US producers of crude oil will produce a profit. Historically it would be in the best interest of these nations to produce oil within the aforementioned margins. However, given the global stance against fossil fuels, there is an opportunity for otherwise sanctioned nations to seize a great deal of power over their Western counterparts. Many refineries and wells in the US have been rendered dysfunctional under complex and opaque legal code instituted by the Biden administrations, and are unable to compete against their Russian counterparts altogether. In which case, before a "free-market" administration such as Trump in 2025 can stabilise crude markets globally, OPEC participants could force the price much higher. In spite of sanctions and a lack of negotiations, a elevated crude price would prove disastrous for developed nations such as Great Britain and Germany, who have no choice but to submit to Russian demands - or wait for US oversea exports, the logistics-intensive alternative. In light of rapid and progressive political change, the crude oil market is an absolute hotbox. It is difficult to prove with data and charts what an opaque and mysterious market this is, but one can only assume OPEC has all the data a future Trump administrations has - which indicated unfettered Russian control over the price of crude oil as long as the war in Ukraine continues. Whether peace can be negotiated remains a question for 2025. But for traders looking into commodities for 2025 - expect nothing less than chaos. The introduction of a black fleet complicated the role of OPEC immensely, who may seek over the next several years to integrate this emergent problem back into insurable shipping groups. Either way, EU sanctions have produced a long-term consequence to the market which should be on the radar of any savvy trader. Given the strength of the US Dollar and the consolidation trend in oil, any elevation in price will benefit Russians more than any other financial entity. It seems unlikely as of the time of writing the price will decline any further, as no party stands to gain below $70/barrel. An embargo as seen back in the 70s could push prices well over $100/ barrel, placing EU energy security in dire straits.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FPS_Denny
1
Oil: Time to Short? WTI Set to Plunge Over 10%Hey Realistic Traders, Is Oil About to Crash? Let’s Dive In.... What's the cause of sudden drop in oil prices? U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged strong support for the oil and gas industry, aiming to streamline permits, boost domestic production, and expand drilling on federal lands. He has also criticized renewable energy subsidies and pushed for increased natural gas exports. Aligned with Trump’s stance, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2023 oil production forecast to 13.23 million barrels per day, surpassing last year’s record of 12.93 million. Global output is also expected to increase, while weaker oil demand from China, driven by slowing economic growth, adds further downward pressure. These policies and projections support the assumption of lower oil prices ahead How much further could they decline?, Let's analyze it using technical analysis! On the daily timeframe, TVC:USOIL is in a bearish continuation phase, potentially entering wave 3 of the trend. It has also broken out of a head-and-shoulders pattern that developed over the past 60+ days, signaling the end of a consolidation phase. This breakout, paired with a bearish marubozu candlestick, strengthens the case for a continued downtrend. Adding to this, the MACD indicator has confirmed a bearish crossover, providing further confirmation of downward momentum. With these signals aligned, we project a potential drop toward the first target of $60.51, and possibly even further to the secondary target of $57.80 This outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the stop-loss level at $73. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Oil.
TVC:USOILShort
by financialfreedomgoals101
Job losses, Momentum, And The 3-Step SystemThe oil market prices have actually underperformed Right now you should be looking into the equity markets Instead of the crude oil prices. You have this stock XOM NYSE:XOM as your opportunity to trade Right now because the momentum on this Stock is very low. Right now yes the jobs numbers for this company Are expected to drop in 2025 With the company planning to reduce its Workforce but don’t focus on this negative sentiment With this stock price, it’s a good time for you To consider buying it, at the lowest momentum It should be able to return you with at least 3% In under a month depending of course On the type of margin you decide to use The process may feel like a burden but You just need to be patient As you undertake a risk management of at least 3 days to hold your position Looking at this chart you can see the rocket Booster strategy which has the following 3 steps • The price has to be above the 50 EMA • The price has to be above the 200 EMA • The price should gap up in an uptrend Now that you understand this strategy you Can use it to understand the trend analysis of Most equity stock prices • Do you see that you don’t have to follow this negative sentiment? • Have also noticed how the mainstream media is boosting this negative news? • Have you seen that crude oil inventories have actually increased? As a result of the new policies or the latest economic news published by the US Government? Rocket boost this content to learn more Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management, and profit-taking strategies Because you will lose money whether you like it or not. Also, do not buy or sell anything I recommended to you. Please do your own research before you buy or sell anything.
NYSE:XOMLong
by lubosi
USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions. Monetary Policy in Canada • Interest Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%). Oil Developments in the U.S. • Crude Oil Production: U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels). • Crude Oil Prices: The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59). The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections. Oil Demand: • U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts. OPEC and Production Adjustments: • Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts: OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million). • Increased OPEC Production: OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya. Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies • Iran’s Response to Sanctions: Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration. • Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.: Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks. Developments in Lebanon and Israel • Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Long
by Ali_PSND
WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south. EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
by easyMarkets
Potential bearish drop?USO/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 69.05 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 70.48 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 66.91 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
WTI set for breakdown amid supply, demand concernsAlthough oil prices were trading higher at the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly difficult to foresee a big rally at this stage, without any supply-side shocks. WTI's price action has been quite heavy as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. While it has held its own around the December 2023 levels of around $67.00 to $68.00 area, this could prove to be a temporary respite before we potentially see a bigger breakdown. Not only has oil broken the key $69.30 to $70.00 support range, which is now holding as resistance, sentiment towards oil is increasingly turning bearish amid growing signs of excess surplus from non-OPEC. Indeed, the oil market is heading for a surplus next year, according to the IEA. The agency is forecasting an excess of over a million barrels per day, mainly due to faltering demand from China. Once the driver of global oil consumption, China has seen demand shrink for six consecutive months, largely as its economy pivots to electric vehicles and high-speed rail. Growing supplies from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana keep the market well-supplied, says IEA. Demand growth this year and next will stay subdued due to slower economic growth and clean energy transitions. OPEC+ plans to cautiously restart production, with a 180,000-barrel-per-day increase set for January, though they’ll reassess in December. With supply growth outpacing demand, the market is likely to stay comfortably stocked well into 2025. Against this backdrop, crude oil looks set for a sharp drop after drifting lower in recent weeks. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
USOIL Will Grow! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 68.870. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 70.475 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by SignalProvider
1
WTI - Oil waiting for stabilization of regional conditions?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the correction process continues and the resistance range is broken, you can first look for buying positions and then look for oil selling positions in the ceiling of the channel. The Wall Street Journal analysis indicates that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, intends to impose severe sanctions on Iran and restrict its oil sales. This move is part of an aggressive strategy to reduce Tehran’s support for its affiliated groups in the Middle East and to curb its nuclear program. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy. This analysis is from The Wall Street Journal. Senior commodity analysts at TDS suggest that risks related to the Middle East are significantly underpriced. TDS analysts point out that the resolution of the current round of Middle East tensions could lead to reduced supply risks in the energy market. In this regard, OPEC’s recent decision to delay additional oil supply has had only a limited impact on increasing supply risk and may not be sufficient in the medium term. According to analyses, if geopolitical stability regarding oil supply continues, there remains a likelihood of price declines. TDS analysts also caution that threats such as the potential intensification of oil sanctions against Iran by President-elect Donald Trump could disrupt regional oil flows severely, as he might return to the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran. The Israeli Foreign Minister has stated that Israel is prepared to continue the Gaza war until its objectives are fully achieved. Progress has been made in ceasefire talks with Lebanon, though the main challenge will be implementing the agreements. The most critical issue for the region’s future is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. An Israeli senior official mentioned, “If Hezbollah does not accept the ceasefire, stronger military and operational plans have been prepared, which could include expanding control over more areas in Lebanon.” Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly considering merging its major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, to create the world’s second-largest oil producer after Aramco. This merger could provide greater control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy amid wartime conditions. However, the proposal faces opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives and challenges in securing financing for Lukoil shareholders. Kremlin officials and company executives have denied knowledge of such a plan, and details of the proposal remain unclear.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND