#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral again. Last week we got a bull surprise and market closed at previous resistance. Upside will probably be limited and market could not close above 72.3 for 2 months now. I do not expect it to change that all of a sudden. The volume is also low af and therefore I expect more sideways between 67 - 71. 2024 will likely close near 69.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it.
comment: I won’t make this longer than it needs to be and nothing has changed for the past 10 weeks. We are inside a clear trading range 66 - 72 and you can not expect that range to break over the next 3 weeks. Almost anything can happen with the markets but the most reasonable expectation is a continuation.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 66 - 72
bull case: If bulls can close the gap to 72.56 I’d be very surprised. 71.5 is likely still bigger resistance and thus most bulls will exit longs above 71 on any decent weakness. Daily close above 72 would change that a bit but not too much.
Invalidation is below 66.
bear case: Upper third of the trading range is where bears are favored again but they need to show some selling pressure before you should think about shorting this. If you would short this now, would you put your stop at 71.5? That’s really tight and the risk the market prints those couple of ticks is big. Next best stop would be 72.8. In any case, I wait for selling pressure before I short.
Invalidation is above 71.6.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways.
→ Last Sunday we traded 67.2 and now we are at 71.29. Range is still holding. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral 68 - 71.6. Above 71.6. we could see 72.2 but probably not higher than 72.8. Bears are favored at the upper third of this range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
