USOIL Slides to Crucial Support Region on Demand JittersThe commodity staged a four-week relief rally recently and the longest profitable streak of the year, helped by OPEC+ supply curbs extension and summer travel demand. At the same time, soft US inflation and dovish Fed commentary have boosted market pricing for multiple cuts, which can provide another tailwind. Above the EMA200 bulls have the ability to set higher highs (84.54), but don’t inspire yet confidence for new 2024 highs (87.66).
Despite the near-term favorable supply-demand dynamics, longer-term prospects are gloomy, as OPEC+ will start returning oil to the market and usage is likely to decelerate substantially this year. This week’s data from China (the world’s largest importer) aggravated demand concerns, as the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year.
USOil faces pressure as a result and threatens a key support region, provided by the 200Days EMA (blue line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up and the upper border of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Although this cluster has the potential to contain the fall, a breach would shift bias to the downside. This would expose WTI to 76.13 and bring the June lows to the spotlight (72.40), although sustained weakness is not easy under current conditions.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Oil
USOIL | The Sell Off is nearWTI crude oil prices have shown a downward trend in recent sessions, falling for three consecutive days. Currently, WTI stands around the $80.70 region, recording a daily loss of about 0.40%. Despite this decline, the price remains above the overnight swing low, suggesting a lack of conviction among sellers.
Factors Influencing Prices
Chinese Economy:
Economic Growth Data: Official data released on Monday showed that China's economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.3% in the first quarter. This has fueled concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the world's largest oil importer, and a consequent decrease in fuel demand.
Impact on the Oil Market: Concerns about Chinese demand are a key factor exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices.
Strength of the US Dollar (USD):
Dollar Recovery: The US dollar has gained traction, recovering from a more than three-month low touched on Monday. A stronger dollar makes USD-denominated oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby reducing demand.
Monetary Policy Outlook: The growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve might start a rate-cutting cycle as early as September could limit further dollar gains, partially mitigating the negative effect on oil prices.
Supply Concerns:
Middle East Conflicts: Concerns about potential supply disruptions due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to support oil prices. This factor could limit further losses in the short term.
Forecasts and Expectations
Price Range: WTI seems to remain confined within a familiar range maintained over the past two weeks, with prices oscillating around the $80.70-$81.30 region.
Awaiting External Impulses: Market participants are now waiting for US retail sales data to find new drivers that could influence prices.
Need for Confirmation: To position for a further extension of the recent pullback from levels near $84.00, it would be prudent to wait for more convincing selling signals.
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OIL: First red day, day 3 breakout long and failed weekly high Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day ✅
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, I'm not really interested today in going long, however, Friday HOW failed breakout, started dumping and it could be considered as a higher high for a dump and pump.
Short: primary, weekly template pump and dump, lower low can be a sign of weakness, watching second hour NYT for down continuation.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
Shipping prices increasing, Oil going lower, cancel each other?By the graph included, we can see that Asian container freight rate prices are skyrocketing. This is due to disruption & stock.
This is good sign for the overall economy, means not in recession.
With news that Trump is being called the next prez will #oil trend lower?
Maybe one can offset the other?
LSE:INDU SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX AMEX:USO
Crude Oil Analysis and Trading Signals UpdatesCrude oil technical analysis
Daily resistance 83.4, support below 80.62-79
Four-hour resistance 83.4-82.5, support below 81.2
Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range at a high level last Friday. The overall price continued the recent high-level fluctuation and consolidation rhythm. Today, the upper pressure continues to focus on 82.5-83.4. The intraday rebound continues to short at this position. The lower support focuses on the 82 mark. The short-term crude oil strong dividing line focuses on the 82.5 mark. Before the daily level stabilizes at 83.4, continue to sell at a high price around 83.4.
SELL:80.7near
SELL:82.5near
SELL:83.4near
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions.
Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East:
The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray.
The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword:
During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments.
China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener:
China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures.
Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor:
Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 83.62 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 84.80 which is a level that lies above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 80.94 which is a pullback support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd , previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern.
comment: Outlooks and chart drawings do not get better than the oil chart posted below. Changed nothing for 2 weeks and still holds up. Next week could be the breakout for the bears. Decent enough rejections above 83 and even if bulls touch 84 again, I think we will trade down over the next weeks/months.
current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel.
key levels: 80-86
bull case: Bulls were rejected a third time above 83.5 and even though they are in control above the daily 20ema, the selling pressure gets bigger and at some point they want a deeper pullback to buy.
Invalidation is below 81.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments imo. Market at big resistance 84 after bulls having 3 clear legs up. Bears now want a deep pullback to 80 and then keep the bounce below 83 and form a proper channel down.
Invalidation is above 85.
outlook last week:
“short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 83.16 and now we are at 82.21. High was 83.74 and low was 80.81. outlook was good for 200+ points.
short term: Bearish. All shorts have stop 86.35 so trade small.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Short since 82.58. Would add to shorts above 83.5 if we get there. SL 86.35.
chart update: Nope.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 15-19th: DXY OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 15 - 19th
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, S&P500 NASDAQ GOLD SILVER US OIL
Enjoy!
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USOIL: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USOIL pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Decoding USOil TrendsHello traders,
Here, I aim to decipher the trends of USOIL across all timeframes.
On the weekly chart, a cup & handle pattern is evident, with $84 serving as the pivotal price. A clear breakout on the daily timeframe could signal a bullish stance for USOIL.
First target: $94
Second target: $109
Stop-loss: Close below $72 on a daily basis.
I'll keep you updated as the situation evolves.
Best of luck
USOIL Higher Time Frame Possible Bullish ScenarioThis is higher time frame bullish scenario on USOIL (WTI). This is only applicable if a bullish breakout occurs.
1. The price is inside a triangle which is getting squeezed and reaching its apex. That means we are going to have a breakout very soon.
2. Recently the price completed and M pattern and jumped higher. When M pattern completes the market goes higher.
3. If we get a bullish breakout from this triangle and if this breakout confirms, we can have formation of a potential W pattern. This when completed will have the potential to make oil fall again.
4. After that if the price stays bullish or becomes bullish again, we have a gap available around 100 area which needs to be filled at subpoint.
5. That will also lead us into a bigger multiple month and possibly multi year bullish formation of a W pattern.
But first, we need to see how price breaks out of the triangle.
If you found this post useful or information please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍✔ Also us for more.
USOIL Massive Long! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 82.14
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 82.92
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 81.86 level.
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WTI Crude oil trading strategy on July 12
WTI Crude oil trading strategy on July 12
I give several safe trading areas:
sell:
83.6-84 (scalping. Small profits are enough)
84.3-84.55 (suitable for selling, sl84.8)
buy:
81.6-81.8
80.9-81.2
Trading according to these indicators will allow you to make safe profits.
If you make a profit using my signals. Please join me and give me a thumbs up
OIL: Day 3 breakout short, first green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅ day 2 cycle
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout ✅
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, signal day, potential weekly dump and pump can be completed by today. At the moment the market is dumping in the day, if I will see a consolidation holding till CPI or 9am (OIL opening ), I will be willing to take this long setup
Short: secondary, Asia pumped into yesterday HOD, and failed, I can not exclude a retest of the LOW if the market keep going breaking down.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
USOIL ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USOIL
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency after the price breakout , indicates the price is under bearish pressure
TURNING LEVEL : there is a purple line around 82.84 , indicates if the price trade below this level reach a support level , but if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level
RESISTANCE LEVEL: there is a green line around 85.25 , indicates selling have already increase this level , when you reach this level buyer have more supply for oil
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line around 79.66 , indicates buying have already increase this level , when you reach this level selling have more demand for oil
PRICE MOVEMNET : the price stabilizing below turning level around 82.84, in my opinion until the price trade below turning level ,indicates selling have more demand for oil , so reach a support level at 79.66, then breaking this level reach a next target at 77.37, if the price breaking turning level , indicates buyer have more supply for oil , so reach 85.25 and 87.41
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 85.25 , 87.41
SUPPORT LEVEL : 79.66 , 77.37
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 81.984.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 78.552 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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