WTI Oil H4 | Bullish uptrend to resume?WTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 80.42 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 79.60 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 84.45 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Oil
USOILThe US oil price is showing a short-term bearish move due to a rising wedge pattern and an Elliott Wave ABC correction. Currently, the price has completed point A and is moving towards point B. After a 50% to 61% retracement at point B, we can expect a bullish reversal, leading to a long-term move towards point C.
Weekend Wizardry On Crude OilRight now It makes no sense in my mind why the market would want to return to being bearish.
Yes we are in a premium and after a couple days of upwards movement there can be some stagnent action for traders who like to take more than 25-40 ticks ona single move.
So again why would market want to move lower on a htf bases as pointed in my arrows we have a Daily FVG whcih I will be watching price to respect and create a discount in that FVG
The wicks from Friday and Monday Daily chart show immediate rebalance and a propell higher is what I am looking for.
Given Monday can be opposing price to what Tues and Wed Provide... wink wink
Magnet shows my target for next week. to revisit this and whilst in fvg how do we close? Daily fvg CE?
I really do look at price on the day to day basis weekly targets yes but this is a subconscious thought when im trading pacific times of the day.
MarketBreakdown | Dollar Index, Silver, EURCAD, WTI Oil
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ Dollar Index #DXY daily time frame 💵
Dollar Index nicely respected a key daily horizontal resistance.
We see a nice bearish reaction to that today.
Because of the absence of important fundamentals,
I think that DXY may keep staying under a bearish pressure.
2️⃣ Silver #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙
The price action on Silver contracts.
The market is currently stuck between 2 trend lines,
forming a classic symmetrical triangle formation.
Before the release of the news, the market will most likely
stay within the triangle, respecting its upper and lower boundary.
US fundamentals this week can be a catalyst for a breakout.
The side of the breakout will indicate you the future direction of the market.
3️⃣ #EURCAD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇨🇦
The market is approaching a significant confluence zone based
on a recently broken horizontal support and a trend line.
The broken structures compose a supply zone from where we may
see a bearish movement.
Patiently analyze the reaction of the price to that on lower time frames
and look for a confirmation to sell.
4️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL 🛢️
The market is currently stuck between 2 horizontal structures
within a narrow range.
I will wait for a breakout of one of the structures to confirm
where the market will go next.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 72.631 (Wave 5).Dear Colleagues, as in the last forecast I assume that the price was moving in wave “4” and is currently completing this wave.
I expect the wave to start downward movement and reach the support area (minimum of wave “3”) at 72.631. Because this movement will be the development of wave “5” in the ending diagonal.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
A technical view on the Crude market - what happens next?Taking a short-term view, the oil market feels delicately poised and what happens over the next 24-48 hours could be very telling for the near-term passage of play.
After a near 14% rally from the 4 June lows, which took price through the May range highs of $80.91, and after a huge bullish position adjustment in both Brent and WTI futures, we’ve seen price pull back to test this former breakout point – if crude now kicks higher, confirming the bulls are happy to support, it would suggest the bulls have a platform to take this back above $82.16 (21 June high) for a possible trend higher, where pullbacks should be shallow and a move into $84.87, even $86.00/20 would be our targeted play.
Conversely, a failure to hold $80.91 would suggest a change in the market structure and alter the skew in the distribution to one where we see higher probabilities of a move back towards $78.50, even $76.00
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#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Strong week by the bulls with 3 pushes up but still a lower high. Their next target is to get back above 80.22. Right now they have momentum going but big down, big up mostly creates confusion and that means trading range. Above 79.5 I will probably long for 80. They need to stay above 77 or odds favor a retest of the lows below 74.
comment: Bulls just had amazing follow through since Monday and have bought everything on lower volume. The tight bull channel is valid and Monday or Tuesday could set up another good buying opportunity. I don’t think bears want to die on that 82 hill and bulls can bring this easily back to 82.5 or 84.5 where two upper bear trend lines run through.
current market cycle: big trading range or smaller bull trend inside of it. Triangle is still playing out.
key levels: 72-84
bull case: Another very strong week. Can only look for longs in oil currently, until bears show up again. Bulls had two big legs up and want a third one to around 83.5/84.5. The current pullback could continue 1-3 days before more up but bulls should not let it break the lower bull channel around 79.7ish
Invalidation is below 79.5.
bear case: Bears clearly see the pattern and only doing small intraday scalps until the market get’s nearer to either bear trend line as drawn. The big one started 2 years ago, so you can be sure, there will be a reaction. Not saying bears will be strong enough to reverse it directly but at least stall it around that price area. As of now, bulls are in full control and far above the daily ema. Don’t look for shorts unless strong momentum.
Invalidation is above 82.1.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral right under the bear channel line and daily ema at 77.5. Can break to either side.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.45 and now we are at 80.73. Not a good outlook but I would always write the same. As strong as it was before last Monday, it was the high of the trading range and it could have been the top for some days.
short term: More sideways to down movement expected (not much down, max 79.7ish) before bulls try the third leg up. Can’t be anything but bullish looking at this chart until bears build bigger selling pressure.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market did indeed reversed hard over the past 3 weeks and we are almost at the top of the triangle again, where I expect more sideways movement until one side clearly wins again. Odds favor the bears if they stay below 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Bear channel was clearly broken and therefore removed. Tight bull channel with a 5-wave series added.
oil crudewe anticipate a long term buy for crude oil based on the following analysis of crude oil which is an amalgamation of both fundamental technical analysis.
WTI crude oil continues its upward trajectory, with hourly prices testing the upper bounds of the ascending channel. If the short-term ceiling holds, prices could still experience a rapid pullback.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level stands at $80.02, with larger pullbacks potentially reaching the 50% level at $79.51, followed by the 61.8% level at $78.99 near the channel bottom and the 200-day SMA dynamic inflection point.
The stochastic oscillator dropping from overbought territory indicates rising selling pressure, with room for oscillators to decline further before reflecting bearish exhaustion, which suggests that the correction could persist until such exhaustion is observed.
The RSI is also trending downward, indicating that crude oil prices may follow suit until oversold conditions are met and oscillators rebound.
However, the overall structure shows the 100 SMA above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance remains upward, or that support levels are more likely to hold than break. In this scenario, oil prices may continue to rise toward the swing highs around $81.69 or higher. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to buy the dips.
ENTRY ; 80.00
tp 85
sl 78.80
risk reward ratio ; 120;500 (approximately 5 times more reward).
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USOIL Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 80.52 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 78.40
Recommended Stop Loss - 81.78
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL - Start of a corrective rally??FX:USOIL looks to have created a short term low just below 7300.
Im now looking at a rally so watching this PB going into Monday for a potential move back up towards 78-80.
Watching for 7400-7480 on Monday to hold for the next move higher.
Enjoy the week. More updates coming.
CL1! (Cruide Oil Futures) - Top-down Analysis Ok guys, here is my analysis for Crude Oil Futures.
I've been bullish, but the currently I don't have anything in terms of a strong bias in either direction. But what I will be looking for is what I mentioned wanting to see on the weekly timeframe.
Watch the analysis, let me know what you think will happen with crude oil prices!
- R2F
USOIL is having a strong bullish momentumHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 79 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 79 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
XTIUSD(WTI/US OIL): Next Target Is $94.00Dear Traders,
Hope you are well, we have an excellent buying opportunity coming up on Oil, price rejected at key level and since then it is bullish on daily timeframe, however, we have seen some bearish correction happening. We have identified a key level where 'imbalance' zone is there. In our analysis we think price will react from this level and move toward $90 and then $94.
Team Setupsfx_
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns
Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend.
Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence
Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher.
US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market
A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices.
Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories.
OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire
Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024.
The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June.
The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend?
While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum.
A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months.
The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices
Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services.
On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities
Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market.
While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
A slick move in crude - black gold has the wind to its backThe oil market has the wind to its back as we head into the Northern Hemisphere Summer, with WTI crude having rallied 13% since the 4 June lows. The rally from $72 has seen price retrace a decent portion of the falls seen between April and June - which resulted in the market running one of the most bearish positions we’ve seen in years. Clearly, the demand side of the equation has seen that positioning challenged, and along with a punchy 8.8m barrel draw in the weekly inventory report, has resulted in a strong push higher in price. Given we’re now seeing price trending, amid building momentum, there are signs that systematic players (CTAs) are chasing this move above $81 higher and therefore strength begets strength. Given the still low positioning, and deeply backwardated crude futures curve that really incentivizes oil traders to be long the front-month WTI crude futures for the carry (upon expiration), the near-term signs look positive for crude, where pullbacks should offer opportunity and we’d be looking for a push into $85, perhaps even to revisit the highs seen in April of $87.63.