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Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions. Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East: The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray. The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword: During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments. China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener: China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures. Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor: Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by signalmastermind
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 83.62 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 84.80 which is a level that lies above a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 80.94 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd , previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern. comment: Outlooks and chart drawings do not get better than the oil chart posted below. Changed nothing for 2 weeks and still holds up. Next week could be the breakout for the bears. Decent enough rejections above 83 and even if bulls touch 84 again, I think we will trade down over the next weeks/months. current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel. key levels: 80-86 bull case: Bulls were rejected a third time above 83.5 and even though they are in control above the daily 20ema, the selling pressure gets bigger and at some point they want a deeper pullback to buy. Invalidation is below 81. bear case: Bears have all the arguments imo. Market at big resistance 84 after bulls having 3 clear legs up. Bears now want a deep pullback to 80 and then keep the bounce below 83 and form a proper channel down. Invalidation is above 85. outlook last week: “short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.” → Last Sunday we traded 83.16 and now we are at 82.21. High was 83.74 and low was 80.81. outlook was good for 200+ points. short term: Bearish. All shorts have stop 86.35 so trade small. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. current swing trade: Short since 82.58. Would add to shorts above 83.5 if we get there. SL 86.35. chart update: Nope.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST July 15-19th: DXY OIL INDICES GOLD SILVERThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast JuLY 15 - 19th In this video, we will cover: USD Index, S&P500 NASDAQ GOLD SILVER US OIL Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!
by RT_Money
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
USOIL Higher Time Frame Possible Bullish ScenarioThis is higher time frame bullish scenario on USOIL (WTI). This is only applicable if a bullish breakout occurs. 1. The price is inside a triangle which is getting squeezed and reaching its apex. That means we are going to have a breakout very soon. 2. Recently the price completed and M pattern and jumped higher. When M pattern completes the market goes higher. 3. If we get a bullish breakout from this triangle and if this breakout confirms, we can have formation of a potential W pattern. This when completed will have the potential to make oil fall again. 4. After that if the price stays bullish or becomes bullish again, we have a gap available around 100 area which needs to be filled at subpoint. 5. That will also lead us into a bigger multiple month and possibly multi year bullish formation of a W pattern. But first, we need to see how price breaks out of the triangle. If you found this post useful or information please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍✔ Also us for more.
TVC:USOIL
by vikinsa
USOIL Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 82.14 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 82.92 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
4
OIL: Day 3 breakout short, first green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 ✅ day 2 cycle Friday DAY 3 Closing Range 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day ✅ 3 Days Long Breakout 3 Days Short Breakout ✅ Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump Dump&Pump ✅ Frontside Backside ✅ 4. THESIS: Long: primary, signal day, potential weekly dump and pump can be completed by today. At the moment the market is dumping in the day, if I will see a consolidation holding till CPI or 9am (OIL opening ), I will be willing to take this long setup Short: secondary, Asia pumped into yesterday HOD, and failed, I can not exclude a retest of the LOW if the market keep going breaking down. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by GianniPichichero
10
USOIL ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USOIL HELLO TRADERS Tendency after the price breakout , indicates the price is under bearish pressure TURNING LEVEL : there is a purple line around 82.84 , indicates if the price trade below this level reach a support level , but if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level RESISTANCE LEVEL: there is a green line around 85.25 , indicates selling have already increase this level , when you reach this level buyer have more supply for oil SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line around 79.66 , indicates buying have already increase this level , when you reach this level selling have more demand for oil PRICE MOVEMNET : the price stabilizing below turning level around 82.84, in my opinion until the price trade below turning level ,indicates selling have more demand for oil , so reach a support level at 79.66, then breaking this level reach a next target at 77.37, if the price breaking turning level , indicates buyer have more supply for oil , so reach 85.25 and 87.41 TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 85.25 , 87.41 SUPPORT LEVEL : 79.66 , 77.37
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 81.984. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 78.552 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by SignalProvider
1
Bearish drop?WTI/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 82.94 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 84.15 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 81.21 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
WTI tests key supportWTI was testing a key support area after falling for the third consecutive day. As can be seen on the chart, US oil was testing support around the upper end of the 80.00 - 81.50 support area, which had been resistance in the past. Here, we are expecting to see a rebound given the bullish price structure of crude oil over the past several days. If so, another test of the bearish trend line going back to September 2023 should not come as surprise, around the $84.00 area. The line in the sand is now at around $80.00, the most recent low prior to the latest rally. Should WTI break below this level, then it would invalidate its still-bullish technical picture. But my base case scenario is that we could see a recovery from around the current levels. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREXcom
WTI Oil H4 | Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 82.94 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 84.80 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 80.42 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM