Possible Crude Down to $30/BarrelSince the covid oil bull market we've yet to have a breakdown as supply catches back up with equilibrium. I would expect at some point we get a price back down to $30. First major support would potentially be $52.
Oil
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2.
Invalidation is a daily close above 75.
short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle.
Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high.
While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71.
This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive.
The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
WTI CRUDE OIL: Rebound to 75.50 very probable.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.837, MACD = 0.030, ADX = 37.618) which is natural as it's trading inside a Channel Down. The pattern formed a 4H Death Cross yesterday and even though it's technically bearish, the last time it was formed (October 24th 2024), it marked a bottom 4 days later. The bottom was formed on a HL trendline and if it gets repeated, we should see a HL rebound soon. As with November's rebound, we will be targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 75.50).
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Crude oil remains on a bearish pathOil prices have fallen noticeably since Trump’s last minute deal to delay tariffs. Yesterday’s rebound on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran has proven to be short-lived. The negative effect of a US-China trade war on demand, as well as rising global supplies, is what is holding back prices. Even if Trump hadn’t delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, when considering both supply and demand factors, the overall impact on crude oil prices may well have been limited anyway. In any event, oil prices extended their losses after the OPEC+ agreed to stick to its policy and raise output gradually from April. Prices have fallen further today on the back of the latest inventories report from the US. A big 8.7 million barrel build was reported, which surprised the market given only a 2.4m build was expected. Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a modest downtrend, with WTI consistently forming lower highs since September 2023. A brief breakout above this trend in January met strong resistance just below $80, pushing prices back under the trend line by month-end. With the bearish bias reaffirmed and WTI slipping below the 200-day moving average again, downside risks remain dominant.
In terms of support, the area between $70.00 to $70.70 marks a key battle ground. This is where the price of oil last staged a rally from at the back end of last year. If we see a bounce here, I will then look for that bounce to fade as prices come up to test some key resistance levels…
Key resistance levels to watch include the recently broken support at $72.50, the 200-day average at $74.30 and the psychologically significant $75.00 mark. The bearish trend line hovers around $76.00.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Oil Long - Capitulate First, Rise LaterMajority is long so give your SL some space while waiting for moon.
Oil | HnS Pattern Back to $68 SupportPrice action is currently retesting the neckline, would like to see more play towards $75, possibly a spike-out for sellers to get in higher like the last time
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The SMA is also offering dynamic resistance as we see further down pressure
🎯
Target goal $68.
USOIL Is Nearing The Daily Trend!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 69 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 69 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
WTI Crude Oil: Navigating Current Dynamics Near $72.00As I write this, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is hovering around $71.90. Despite ongoing concerns about a US-China trade war, the market is largely dismissing this risk, focusing instead on supply worries stemming from Iran.
President Trump's administration has reinstated its "maximum pressure" campaign, aiming to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, which heightens global supply concerns. This geopolitical landscape has significant implications, suggesting a potential tightening of global oil supply that could lead to price increases.
From a technical standpoint, retail sentiment is bearish. However, examining historical data reveals a pattern of price recovery following downturns. Given current market dynamics, there’s a strong case for a bullish reversal. A pullback to around $78 seems feasible, as demand may soon outstrip supply due to lingering geopolitical tensions and economic recovery.
In summary, while bearish thoughts prevail, the foundations are in place for an upward shift in WTI prices. As developments in Iran and broader economic indicators unfold, traders and investors should remain alert to the potential for a rebound.
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OIL Ready To Go Down Hard,Don`t Miss This Chance To Get 500 PipsHere is 4h time frame and we have a very good daily closure below our support and now it`s working as a good res to force the price to go down for 500 pips , so i`m waiting the price to go up a little to retest the broken support and then give us a good bearish price action and then we can enter a sell trade with 500 pips target.
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Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq initially declined in pre-market trading due to escalating tariff tensions between China and the U.S. but ultimately closed higher. A sell signal appeared on the daily chart but was reversed into a buy signal with yesterday’s bullish candle.
This suggests that the market is still moving within a large box range, with moving averages converging. This consolidation phase indicates that a trend expansion phase—marked by a strong bullish or bearish breakout—may emerge soon. Until then, it is best to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the market has been making stepwise upward movements, with the MACD forming a golden cross over the Signal line. Despite a strong price surge due to divergence, the index has entered a resistance-heavy zone, and liquidity is currently tight, which could lead to frequent sharp fluctuations.
For now, the best strategy is selling near the upper boundary of the range and buying near the lower boundary. Given the ongoing trade tensions under Trump's tariff policies, risk management is crucial—placing stop-loss orders is highly recommended to protect against increased volatility.
OIL
Oil gapped down but found strong support around the $70 level, closing with a bullish candle. News of the U.S. tightening sanctions on Iran initially sent prices down by 3%, but a sharp rebound followed.
While the daily chart still shows a sell signal, the $70 price area has historically provided strong support, as previously emphasized. Thus, the overall strategy should be buying on pullbacks rather than chasing sell positions.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD continues to create bullish divergence, forming a buy signal. This increases the likelihood of further upside movement. However, since the MACD and Signal lines are still below the zero line, further price increases are needed to widen the gap between these indicators and confirm bullish momentum.
Overall, buying on pullbacks remains the preferred strategy, but traders should be cautious of potential volatility spikes due to today’s Crude Oil Inventories report.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day moving average. On the daily chart, as long as the 10-day moving average holds, gold should be viewed from a bullish perspective.
The MACD on the daily chart is trending sharply upward, so until a MACD-Signal line death cross occurs, buying on pullbacks remains the best strategy. Similarly, on the 240-minute chart, the MACD has repeatedly formed golden crosses, reinforcing a strong one-way bullish trend.
From a flow of funds perspective, buying pressure remains strong, so buying dips continues to be the most favorable approach. However, traders should be aware of potential high volatility due to the upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report today and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. Given gold's recent sharp rally, a major inflection point could emerge, using economic data as a catalyst.
The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and rapid price movements, increasing the likelihood of sudden price swings leading to stop-outs. However, if stop-losses are properly managed, losses can be quickly recovered.
In a highly volatile market, profit opportunities increase, so maintaining strict stop-loss discipline while seeking the next trade opportunity is key to successful trading.
Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21500 / 21425 / 21340 / 21250
-Sell Levels: 21665 / 21735 / 21830 / 21930
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.20 / 71.60 / 70.90
-Sell Levels: 73.20 / 73.80 / 74.50
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2864 / 2859 / 2850 / 2845
-Sell Levels: 2876 / 2881 / 2889
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Targets Iran's ExportsWTI crude oil, under pressure for the past couple of weeks pops higher after running sell stops below $72. The rebound being supported by news the US secretary of state will modify or rescind existing sanctions waivers and cooperate with Treasury to implement a campaign "aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero"
USOIL - short turn now? agreed ??#USOIL... market just going to mature his formation for a selling turn if market holds today high in that case it will drop towards his next supporting. that is at 72 around.
good luck
trade wisely
CL - Crude Oil is approaching the Center-Line SupportAs mentioned in the previous analysis, we see that CL pushed back and comes right to where we expect it to go, down to the Center-Line.
Our job here is to observe how it reacts in here. Support at the Center-Line, or a blow through, or swinging around it?
Patience is key, and the observation time is very valuable, because we can learn from it and feed our stats.
Patience young Padavan, patience. §8-)
7% sell off for wtiusd/ oilas you can see we are stuck in trading range and there is 80% probability for staying in the trading range so the strong scenario is the purple arrow and the 20% scenario is for the red arrow line . dude you can short wtiusd
Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 4thIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
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