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Oil

Is this still the ‘Top Trade’ of 2025? (WTI crude oil)It’s not a big secret actually- I’m talking about crude oil! In the final week of 2024, the team and I highlighted two versions of the WTI crude oil weekly chart and asked ‘is this the top trade of 2024?’ Version 1 has already happened, WTI crude hit $55 per barrel, the downside objective of the smaller triangle pattern on the chart. Version 2 showed a much larger triangle pattern (which we show again this week) and had a downside target of nearly $30! It would take a lot of conviction to ride the price that far down, but could crude oil still move a lot lower this year? What’s interesting is that this is still one of the ‘less talked about’ situations in the market today because of the huge volatility seen in both stocks, forex and fixed income. And I like that nobody’st talking about it - because you don’t want everyone in on it - that means the move could already be over. Crude oil hit a five-year low. That’s meaningful. Strong markets don’t hit 5-year lows, weak markets do. And we like to sell weak markets. Of course, ‘oversold markets’ hit 5-year lows too - and that largely explains the ‘bottom feeders’ who bought WTI crude oil at $55. Downside volatility got extreme owing to Trump’s tariffs and mean-reversion helped it rebound on news of the 90-day pause, much like stock markets. I am completely open to the idea that $55 is a multi-year low and essentially marked the bottom. The huge Hammer reversal candlestick pattern adds weight to that idea. But with the price having hit $65 last week, buying the lows is yesterday’s trade. What do we do today? We will be looking to do what we said in Week 53 of 2024 in case crude oil turns out to be the ‘top trade of 2025’ as we imagined. By the way, Brent crude oil has a very similar setup so this is not a ‘US oil’ thing. There are two parts to trading ‘planning the trade, and trading the plan’. There isn’t much use in making a plan, and not taking the trade. There are always reasons not to take a trade- but if it’s a ‘good trade’ that fits the rules of your trading strategy, then those reasons are usually just ‘noise’. WTI Crude (USO/USD) Long term chart (weekly) Trend: Down Phase: Re-test of breakdown Resistance = $70 Support = $55 Price action: Price has broken down, rebounded and is now testing the breakdown level, while under the 30-week moving average. Should the price break back over the broken long term rising trendline then we know the idea, or at least the timing on the idea is not right. View: Bearish while under broken up-sloping long term support
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by jasperlawler
Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd. Markets are looking tradeable again. The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher. Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG. Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created. Let's go! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
3
Bullish on USOILAs the chart shows, in the 1 - hour timeframe, USOIL is in an upward - trending channel 📈. The price fluctuates upwards between two trendlines. Despite pullbacks, the uptrend persists, suggesting short - term bullish dominance. Still, the frequent swings reveal ongoing bull - bear market battles.📈 ⚡⚡⚡ USOIL ⚡⚡⚡ 🚀 Buy@61.5 - 62.0 🚀 TP 63.5 - 65.0 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟
TVC:USOILLong
by Sovereign-
NATGAS Elliott Waves – Preparing for a Multi-Year Rally!Following our last post on Natural Gas, we have now seen a breakout, suggesting the start of a larger bullish wave — a move that could last multiple years. From a technical perspective: - Wave 1 (5-wave impulse) is complete. - Wave 2 (ABC correction) is also complete. - We are now in Wave 3, which itself will form 5 subwaves. Wave 3: Subwave 1 of Wave 3 has formed as a leading diagonal. We are now in Subwave 2, which typically retraces around 61.8% of Subwave 1. Our buy zone is positioned around this retracement area, and we will be looking for a lower timeframe breakout to confirm entries. Important note: Subwave 2 could form a more complex ABC correction, so patience is required while it develops. Trade Plan: - Wait for price to reach the buy zone. - Look for lower timeframe bullish confirmation (trendline break, BOS, structure shift, etc.). - Enter after confirmation. Stoploss Placement: - Aggressive option: Below the corrective low. - Conservative option: Below the broader invalidation level. Targets: 8, 10, 12 See below for our last NatGas analysis:
SKILLING:NATGAS
by WicktatorFX
2
USOIL Opening Trends and Trading Strategies Next WeekTrend Analysis As shown in the chart, in the 1 - hour time frame, USOIL is moving within an upward - trending channel 📈. This channel is defined by two trendlines, and the price is fluctuating upwards within it. Although there have been pullback trends during this period, the overall trend remains upward. This indicates that in the short term, the bullish forces are relatively dominant, driving the price to gradually climb 📈. However, the frequent price fluctuations also reflect a certain degree of game - playing between the bulls and bears in the market 🤺. ⚡⚡⚡ USOIL ⚡⚡⚡ 🚀 Buy@61.5 - 62.0 🚀 TP 63.5 - 65.0 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟
TVC:USOILLong
by Sovereign-
Surge Energy (SGY) Elliott Wave Outlook26/04/25 SGY Update I’ve been long Surge Energy since Jan 24. Price did move higher initially following my entry but has since ground lower in what looks like an ending diagonal pattern in red C of a larger ABC zig zag correction. There is RSI divergence on the weekly time frame which helps the case that SGY could be bottoming, but that will of course be effected by what the price of oil does. Any further downside on SGY I will be looking at the yellow zone which contains the 786 retracement at $3.9, measured move target of the red A wave at $3.28 & 886 retracement at $2.64. There is an ending diagonal invalidation level at $3.2, if this is tagged, I will need to adjust the current count. The completion of Red C will complete the (X) wave of the higher degree (W)(X)(Y) in yellow, from these levels the (Y) wave target will be $16-$17.
TSX:SGYLong
by figureofspeech
USOIL: Bears Are Winning! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 63.133 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 62.366..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FX:USOILShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Chevron: The Chart’s Reaching a Critical PointChevron is starting to look very interesting again — but let’s be clear from the start: Chevron, like every oil giant, lives and dies by the price of oil. If oil rips higher or collapses due to global politics, supply shocks, or economic chaos, Chevron NYSE:CVX follows. No exceptions. That said, what we’re seeing on the chart right now is increasingly pointing toward a deeper correction — specifically down to the $113–$100 zone. That would make sense structurally as a Wave 4 retracement. But there’s a technical nuance here. Wave 1’s high sits at $103 — and depending on how strict your Elliott Wave rules are, Wave 4 dipping into Wave 1 is bad territory. Personally, I’m okay with a brief touch into that range, but I don’t want to see price hanging around below $103 for long. From a trend perspective, we’re clearly in a downward channel. We just saw a textbook bull trap: Chevron broke out with a solid +7% move over two weeks, Followed immediately by a massive 22% drop, One of the sharpest two-week declines since — yeah — March 2020, pandemic levels. Now, price is hovering around $130, and the setup is simple: If this level holds, great — maybe we’re bottoming. If it breaks, I’m looking to buy between $113 and $100. That’s where the structure aligns, the volume kicks in, and risk/reward starts to make sense again. So here’s the real question: Do we see $200 first — or $100? I’m leaning $100 first. Not because I’m bearish long-term— but because that level would clean up the chart, shake out the noise, and give us a real shot at riding the next strong leg higher with conviction. Would love to hear what you think — where’s your bet?
NYSE:CVXLong
by stromm
1
April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show. The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high. OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray. Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC. Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours. NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty. On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it. Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum. Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SmartApingAI
Primary and secondary rhythm: sudden drop in crude oil pricesLast week, OPEC announced a new compensation plan to offset previous overproduction. Under the plan, eight affected countries plan to reduce production by a total of 457,000 barrels per day by mid-2026, failing to sustain a short-term rise in oil prices. Crude oil's short-term trend hit strong resistance near 64.90 and fell, with the decline erasing the gains of the previous three trading days. The MACD fast and slow lines remain within bearish momentum, indicating abundant downward momentum. From the perspective of primary and secondary rhythms, the decline in the North American market yesterday formed a primary downward trend, while the weak rebound in early trading today represents a secondary rhythm. According to the law of primary-secondary alternation, crude oil is expected to continue to decline today, breaking below the 61.50 support level and testing 60. USOIL sell@62.8-63.3 tp:61.5-61 I hope this strategy will be helpful to you. When you find yourself in a difficult situation and at a loss in trading, don't face it alone. Please get in touch with me. I'm always ready to fight side by side with you, avoid risks, and embark on a new journey towards stable profits.
TVC:USOIL
by H_C_12
WTI crude about to resume lower?WTI formed a large bearish engulfing candle on its daily chart yesterday near the key $65 resistance level. Was that an indication that prices have ended their corrective bounce? Time will tell, but today's oil prices have bounced back. With the trade uncertainty in the background, demand concerns remain high. So, I wouldn't be surprised if prices were to resume lower from here. The trend is clearly bearish with the moving averages all pointing lower, not to mention the lower highs and lower lows. If the selling resumes, watch for possible bounces at the next key round handles like $62, $61 and $60. But there is always the possibility of a sweep below this month's earlier lows if macro concerns intensify. Meanwhile, the bullish idea is off the table for me for now until we see some progress in US-China trade talks at least, or if prices show a major bullish reversal signal. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Recently, crude oil has been running up. Yesterday, the daily line had a technical retracement under the pressure of 65.00. Today, we are still bearish. Let's continue to sell when it rebounds. There is still a lot of room for crude oil to fall. Today's crude oil rebounded near 64.00 and sold. If it breaks below 60.00, it will open up a new space for a big drop. The recent data and fundamentals of crude oil are suppressing it. Buy today and expect a big rebound. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314