#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle.
Quote from last week:
comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 73
bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024.
Invalidation is above 73.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
→ Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market.
short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
Oil
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
BRIEFING Week #45 : What a FireworkHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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USOIL What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USOIL is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 70.38
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 71.05
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly falling on the 3H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 72.46 because the pair is oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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R2F Weekly Analysis - 10th November 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
This video will be a special "The Leap" edition.
- R2F
USOIL: Growth & Bullish Continuation
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current USOIL chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the upward direction.
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USOIL: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 6.976.8$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead.
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy.
Gold (XAU/USD)
In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher.
WTI Crude Oil (WTI)
Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities.
The Big Picture
From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now.
Final Thoughts for Traders
Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
USOIL Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 71.22.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 66.07 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Brent - Oil waiting for new tensions?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions.
If the upward trend continues, it is possible to look for oil selling positions within the specified supply zone.
Israel plans to use U.S. military aid funds for purchasing new fighter jets. According to the Times of Israel, the United States has deployed additional F-15E fighters to the Middle East, especially to Jordan, due to a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Iranian leaders have warned of a “punitive” attack in response to previous Israeli assaults. Additionally, reports indicate that the United States has sent several B-52 bombers and THAAD missile defense systems to the region.
Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could create significant risks for energy prices. Other upward risks include lower-than-expected North American oil production, increased competition for liquefied natural gas shipments, and higher-than-anticipated coal and natural gas consumption in Asia. Conversely, notable downward risks for energy prices also exist, particularly if the OPEC+ supply cuts end sooner than expected. This could lead to an oversupply of oil as well as slower-than-anticipated economic growth, including in China.
The World Bank, maintaining a bearish outlook on the energy sector, forecasts a 6% decline in oil prices in 2025 and a 2% decline in 2026. Although geopolitical uncertainties may generate market volatility, analysts clearly foresee downside risks for oil.
Citibank has projected that a second term for Donald Trump could exert downward pressure on oil prices through 2025, forecasting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel. Trump’s policies might reduce OPEC+ production and ease geopolitical tensions. These policies may also have mixed effects on global economic growth, potentially slowing global oil demand growth. However, the immediate impact on physical oil markets is expected to be limited.
USOIL 71.85 - 0.35% MULTI-TF SET UP INTRADAY TRADEHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at The US0IL At the close of ASIA INTO THE LONDON, TO NY PM SESSION
- As we draw to the close of the week, looking for USOIL to close bullish.
* on the 4H looking for a bearish open with the close of ASIAN SESSION.
* PO3
* Push LOWER before going for HIGHER structures LQ pull.
1 HOUR TF
* Looking for the mitigation of the bullish OB+.
* FVG below has already been mitigated.
* if this structure holds, looking for long entries to close the week.
* USOIL 30M
- Waiting to trade in discounted price.
- If this happens looking for a push higher into premium.
- Most PDARRAYS are filled below so looking for a bullish close this friday.
* BASED on the price action served next session...
* We will see what does the market dish.
🤷♂️😉🐻📉🐮📈
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
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Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
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LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
WTI Oil H1 | Falling to 61.8% Fibonacci supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 71.67 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 70.55 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 73.50 which is a pullback resistance.
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USOIL Is Approaching An Important Support areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 71.17 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 71.17 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Energy Stock Surge? ENI S.P.A Bullish Breakout IncomingENI S.P.A, a leading global oil company, is currently trading at $14.18 , demonstrating strong bullish momentum on the weekly chart. Our proprietary W.ARITAs indicator reveals a significant buildup in bullish momentum, suggesting an imminent breakout from the well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern .
This pattern, widely recognized as a reversal signal, aligns with ENI’s recent strategic moves, including its expansion in Alaska and increased shareholder rewards through a $2 billion share buyback . These developments underscore the company’s robust financial health and its commitment to growth and investor value, which are likely to fuel further stock appreciation.
Key Technical Levels:
Order Box (OB) Target 1: $18.05 - $19.62
Order Box (OB) Target 2: $23.18 - $24.29
Given the current bullish setup, these targets reflect potential zones for profit-taking, with the first Order Box (OB Target 1) offering a conservative target range and OB Target 2 representing an extended bullish goal.
With supportive corporate actions and technical strength, ENI is well-positioned for growth, making it a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure in the energy sector. Keep an eye on the weekly close to confirm the breakout from the inverted head and shoulders pattern for confirmation of further upside potential.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in stocks involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor to assess your individual risk tolerance and objectives before making any investment decisions.
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Eyes UpsidesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Eyes Upsides
Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $75.00 resistance.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $70.00 resistance zone.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $70.90 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $69.40 resistance.
There was a sustained upward move above the $70.00 and $70.90 levels. The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average and the RSI climbed toward 70. A high was formed near $72.31 before there was a downside correction.
The price declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.43 swing low to the $72.31 high. However, the bulls are active above the 50-hour simple moving average.
There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $70.90. Immediate resistance is near the $72.30 level. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $73.50. The next major resistance is near the $74.20 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75.00 level.
Conversely, the price might correct gains and retest the 50-hour simple moving average or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.43 swing low to the $72.31 high at $70.90.
The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $70.10. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.75. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.85 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the USOIL with the target of 66.06 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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